Celtics vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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20 December 2023

Celtics vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Keegan Murray has woken up from his early-season shooting slump in a big way. See why our NBA picks think the Kings swingman should continue filling it up against the hobbled and tired Celtics.

The Boston Celtics just had their five-game winning streak snapped by their greatest foil in the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors.

The Sacramento Kings, favorites in tonight’s NBA odds, know something about how it feels to come up short against the Dubs, but they’ll be looking to strike while the Celtics are banged up and tired after last night’s 53-minute war in San Francisco.

Can the Kings make it four in a row while the Celtics are fatigued and licking their wounds on Wednesday, December 20?

My NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Kings believe Keegan Murray’s shooting slump is well and truly behind him.

Celtics vs Kings odds

Celtics vs Kings predictions

How quickly things change in the NBA. Keegan Murray was off to a slow start from three, and I mean really slow. After breaking the record for threes made in a rookie season, he was below 30% for the first six weeks of the year and there was no good reason why.

In the meantime, Keegan continued to showcase his growth in other areas, including playing hardnose perimeter defense. Murray also quietly made big strides at the free throw line and midrange, increasing his efficiency from both spots by about 10% from his rookie season. All signs were that Murray was a materially better shooter, the ball just wasn’t going in from downtown.

Now, there’s regression to the mean, and then there’s what happened to Murray on Saturday against the Utah Jazz. Murray hit his first 11 straight threes in the game and finished going 12-15 from downtown.

He was as hot as a player I’ve ever seen outside of Klay Thompson’s 37-point quarter against the Kings back in 2015. Coincidently, Murray himself broke not only the franchise record for threes made, but his 27 points in a quarter was also a franchise record.

Murray followed up with a strong 4-7 performance against the Washington Wizards on Monday, and I believe he’s going to have another strong outing tonight. While I think Murray is probable to hit at least three triples, I prefer the value on his points prop at Over 16.5.

As I noted with his improvements from other areas of the court, Murray is far from a one-trick-pony on offense. He even made his living for the Iowa Hawkeyes as a post player, something that Mike Brown has recently suggested they’re going to have him go to more in the future.

But the threes are the main reason I like this prop, and the matchup is why. The Boston Celtics' entire defensive scheme is based around making opponents beat them with above-the-break threes. They allow more non-corner threes than any team in the NBA, and by a wide margin.

Not only is Murray shooting 39% from that area, it’s also where 38% of all his shots come from per Cleaning the Glass. Even accounting for his massive early-season slump, he never lost confidence with his non-corner threes, and he’s going to have plenty of clean ones against the Celtics.

Part of the reason isn’t just scheme, but schedule. The Celtics just played a brutal game against the Golden State Warriors last night, ultimately losing in overtime and taking some injuries in the process.

Because this is a back-to-back, injury information for Boston isn’t going to be available with the same kind of certainty as a normal game. But the Celtics took a lot of bumps and bruises on Tuesday night and there are some educated guesses to be made.

For one, Jayson Tatum rolled his ankle and needed to leave the court in the first quarter. Tatum spoke with the media afterward and said that he was managing swelling and stiffness throughout the rest of the game. There’s a good chance that got worse after the final buzzer, and the Celtics may sit him out of this one. That would remove Murray’s natural perimeter defensive matchup.

Murray is also a creature of habit and is much more comfortable playing at home than on the road. He’s averaging 20 points per game at Golden 1 Center this season, nearly four points more than his season average.

Keegan is averaging 25.6 points per game over his last five and has only had fewer than 17 points once in that span. With his shooting slump well and truly behind him, I think these Keegan Murray odds make for the best bet on Wednesday’s board.

My best bet: Keegan Murray Over 17.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Celtics vs Kings same-game parlay

Keegan Murray 15+ points

De’Aaron Fox Over 29.5 points

Domantas Sabonis Over 31.5 points + rebounds

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With the Celtics on the backfoot after last night’s slugfest with the Warriors, I’m going with an all-Kings-focused same-game parlay on Wednesday. In addition to a close spin on my best bet, I’m backing the two stars of the Kings — Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox — to have outsized performances.

While a potential Tatum absence is important to Murray’s performance, the odds are even better that Sabonis is going to have a matchup advantage on Wednesday. Kristaps Porzingis didn’t play Tuesday with a calf injury, and the Celts have been incredibly careful managing his lower body this season.

In KP’s place, Al Horford played over 38 minutes because the game went to overtime, and he seems unlikely to play in a back-to-back. Luke Kornet is already injured. Most likely the Celtics will be forced to start their fourth-string center, Neemias Queta. Queta is good for a fourth big, but Sabonis should still dominate that potential matchup in the post as well as on the glass.

I also think Fox is well-positioned to torch his matchups against Boston. Jrue Holiday is a renowned defender for good reason, but he’s not quick enough to shut down Fox on the move.

Steph Curry also fell on Derrick White’s elbow in the overtime period last night which seemed to hurt him. An absent or diminished White would make the Celtics' overall defense much easier for Fox to crack. The Celtics switch a ton, so the weaker the chains in the link, the weaker the defensive pressure overall.

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Celtics vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

The Celtics opened as much as -2.5-point favorites, but that line has flipped after banged-up Boston was forced to play overtime against the Warriors last night. Now it’s Sacramento who is a -2.5 favorite at most sportsbooks.

The Celtics have been on a four-game winning streak against the Kings since 2022, and they’ve easily covered in all four of those games as well. But this is as adverse of a rest situation as you’ll see in the course of a regular-season schedule.

The Celtics are on a road back-to-back after playing overtime, and they’re going against a team that likes to relentlessly push the ball. Boston is also just 2-8-2 against the spread on the road this season.

The total for Wednesday has seen some significant movement. While it opened at 233.5, that has risen as many as five points to as high as 238.5 at some sportsbooks.

Boston’s shot distribution last night was a hot topic for Celtics fans and skeptics alike. The Celtics took a whopping 58 threes despite not shooting a great percentage and failed to get quality looks at the rim or free throws despite the Warriors' overall lack of size.

The Kings’ rim defense is also poor, but it’s easy to see the Celtics having the same problem particularly if Tatum or Porzingis aren’t able to go.

While I’d be inclined to bet against the line movement in most circumstances, the lack of rock-solid injury report information for Boston makes that a non-starter.