CFP Semifinal Alabama vs. Michigan Rose Bowl Betting Prediction
The Wolverines are laying 1.5 points in the Alabama vs. Michigan New Year’s Day CFP matchup at 5:00 p.m. ET. Will the Crimson Tide pull off the small upset today? Or will the Wolverines finally punch their ticket to the national championship game?
279 Alabama Crimson Tide (+1.5) vs. 280 Michigan Wolverines (-1.5); o/u 45.5
5:00 p.m. ET, Monday, January 1, 2024
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
TV: ESPN
As of this writing, our CFB Public Betting page shows that 55% of bets are on Alabama. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Jase McClellan (foot) was a full participant Wednesday and is expected to play in Monday’s game against Michigan, Austin Hannon of Sports Illustrated reports.
After missing the Week 14 game against Georgia, McClellan is now set up to make his return for the Rose Bowl to face the Wolverines. The senior running back is an important part of the Oklahoma offense, as he totaled 166 carries for 803 yards (4.8 yards-per-carry) and eight touchdowns while also reeling in 13 receptions for 126 yards and three receiving scores across 12 games this season.
Blake Corum accrued 22 rushes for 88 yards and two touchdowns during Saturday’s 30-24 win against Ohio State. Corum toted the rock somewhat ineffectively for much of the game, as Ohio State’s defense held Michigan to just 3.8 yards per carry. But, the senior running back found paydirt with his lone explosive rush of the game, navigating through his blockers before making a man miss at the hole to break a 22-yard rushing touchdown late in the third quarter.
He only logged just one other rush greater than 10 yards, but Corum still could not be denied on the goal line when he plowed into the end zone on fourth-and-1 for a touchdown in the first quarter. These two scores also vaulted Corum atop the Michigan record books, setting a new single-season record for rushing touchdowns in a single season (22). His contributions also launched Michigan to its third Big Ten Championship in as many seasons, and he’ll look to continue once again find paydirt in Indianapolis this coming Saturday against Iowa.
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The Crimson Tide is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The Wolverines are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games
Take Michigan. I know, I know: Nick Saban with extra time…blah, blah, blah. Jim Harbaugh in a playoff game…blah, blah, blah.
That’s all narrative. Here’s the truth: This is nowhere near Saban’s best Alabama team. Jalen Milroe has played very well since the second half of the Week 8 win against Tennessee. That’s true. He and the Crimson Tide were also one incomplete pass against Auburn in the Iron Bowl from not having an opportunity to play in the college football playoff.
Milore has improved, there’s no doubt. But he’s still turnover and mistake-prone. Ole Miss outplayed ‘Bama in the first half but couldn’t execute in the red zone. The Rebels fell behind and couldn’t recover in the second half. Michigan will find ways to move the ball against this Alabama defense. The Tide’s pass rush is fine but not ferocious. The secondary is good but can be had.
For all the teeth gnashing about Michigan’s schedule, the Wolverines beat eight teams that wound up making a bowl, plus Penn State in Happy Valley and Ohio State in the “Big Game.” Iowa doesn’t have an offense, but Michigan also took care of business in the Big Ten title game as well.
Did Alabama have a tougher schedule? Of course: It plays in the SEC. But be honest: Was the SEC as stout this season as it has been in year’s past? Again, this plays into the Crimson Tide not being the same Alabama juggernaut that it’s been in year’s past. After all, there’s a reason why the Tide aren’t favored.
Michigan has the better defense. They have the better running game. They don’t have the better coaching staff, but it’s not as if Harbaugh is a chump. He nearly won a Super Bowl and brought Michigan back to prominence. It’s the Wolverines time now.
Alabama vs. Michigan Prediction: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES -1.5
