Alabama vs. Michigan Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The drive to the CFP Finals begins with the Rose Bowl, where No. 4 Alabama faces No. 1 Michigan on Monday. The Crimson Tide (12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) forced their way into this position with a heroic, 27-24, victory over No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship. The Wolverines (13-0 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) rolled to the Big Ten title by shutting out No. 16 Iowa, 26-0, in the championship game. It looks to be a perfect day in Pasadena, with kickoff from the Rose Bowl set for 5:00 EST.
Alabama works way into playoffs
After losing to No. 11 Texas in their second game, the Crimson Tide had to fight and claw their way into this position, aided by the opportunity to face the top team in the nation in their last game. Their last two wins, versus rivals Auburn and Georgia respectively, were won by a combined total of six points but on the year, they had a +13.4 average score margin, 15 best in the nation. Alabama’s offense ranked 17 in the country in scoring, averaging 35.1 points per game this season. They also put up 401.2 total yards per game, eighth in the SEC. Quarterback Jalen Milroe was just ninth in the SEC with 2,718 passing yards but was second with 10.4 yards per pass attempt and tied for second with 23 touchdowns. Against Top 25 opponents, he completed 63.5% of his passes for 1,111 yards and seven TDs.
On defense, ‘Bama yielded 313.3 yards and 18.4 points per game, 17 best in the country, this season. Against the pass they had allowed only 188.8 yards per game, the third best mark in their conference. They also managed to pick off 12 passes and sack the opposing quarterback 38 times. Allowing just 16.8 first downs per game, the Tide D ranks 15 in the country. Linebacker Dallas Turner is second in the SEC with nine sacks on the season, recording one in each of the last two games. He is eighth on the team with 50 tackles and has also forced two fumbles on the year.
appears dallas turner can get after the quarterback. pic.twitter.com/DmzTItQ0K5
— ryan (@StillRyanFive) December 27, 2023
Michigan looking mighty
The Wolverines stand as one of four undefeated teams in the FBS and took the top ranking over in the final CFP Playoff rankings after defeating top 25 opponents in three of their last four games. In the Big Ten title game the Michigan defense held Iowa to 155 yards. They ranked second in the country on the season allowing just 239.7 yards per game and the 9.5 points per game allowed is the best scoring defense in the land. Their 16 interceptions are tied for fifth in the country and their 33 sacks were third in the Big Ten. Defensive back Mike Sainristil is tied for fifth in the country with five interceptions, two of which he returned for touchdowns. He also managed two sacks and two forced fumbles during the season.
The Michigan offense is second in the Big Ten and 14 in the country with an average of 36.7 points per game. That allowed them to have a +27.2-scoring average on the year, tops in the country by 4.2 points. The Wolverines had 266 first downs on the year, third in the conference, and were 16 in the country, converting 46.7% of their third downs. The offense scored 46 touchdowns this season, 35 of them by way of the rush. Blake Corum was responsible for 24 of those rushing touchdowns, three more than any other rusher in the country. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry and his 1,028 rushing yards were second most in the Big Ten.
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Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:
The last time these two met was in the 2019 Citrus Bowl, won by Alabama, 35-16. This season, the Wolverines were 3-0 SU versus ranked opponents and Alabama was 4-1 SU. This will be the Tide’s second straight game against the top ranked team in the country. They managed 306 yards against Georgia’s defense, leaning on the rush more with 41 attempts, compared to 23 pass attempts. The Wolverines are holding teams to just 80.7 rushing yards per game and kept Iowa at just 35 rushing yards in the Big Ten title game. They know how to shut teams down and it is looking as if the bigger the moment gets, the more the Wolverines are up for it. Of course, we do know that one of these teams has a better handle on things when it comes to this time of year, but this time around will be different, at least for this one game. Michigan is 7-2 ATS over their last nine games.
Take the Wolverines giving the points.
Prediction: Michigan -1.5
Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:
This season there was a combined 15 games between these two which landed over the respective total. These two teams both have strong units on both sides of the ball, and both play extremely disciplined. The coaching is also about as good as it gets at this level. So, which side wins out? In this situation, I think the offenses will be more than capable of doing enough to tilt another over. The Wolverines faced three of the top 5 defenses in the country and managed to average 26.7 points per game against them. They can and they will score. They’ve put up at least 30 points in 11 games this season. The Crimson Tide put 27 on a Georgia defense that ranks in the top 20. They scored at least that much in eight games this season and scored 40-or-more in five games.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 44.5
A sportswriter for over a decade, Craig has covered everything from the little leagues to the big leagues. His work has been seen on MLB.com, ESPN.com and in the sports pages of the Boston Globe and Miami Herald, among others. Having had a front-row seat to all the action, he has been able to positively blend a little bit of the old and the new when it comes to analyzing the game and breaking it all down. Though longing for the days of the old football card that would be passed around in the halls of high school, Craig is happy to see the business flourishing and ready to put his own mark on things as he joins our team here at StatSalt and Winners & Whiners.
