Champions League Player Picks: Round of 16, First Leg
In Champions League fantasy, the Round of 16 is typically when points really start to dry up, as easy fixtures against teams 17 through 32 have gone out of the picture. In my mind, it is imperative more than ever to focus on match-ups in an effort to eke out what returns that you can.
The strategy should be fairly simple. Aside from fairly rare ties which end in a penalty kick shootout, the teams which advance will score more and concede fewer goals, making their offensive and defensive players more attractive on balance. Technically this is a Player Picks piece for the first leg of the Round of 16, but I’m more focused on both legs. There is always so much injury/suspension/starting status uncertainty, but we only get three free transfers for the second leg, not enough to afford the luxury of purely plotting solely for the first leg. Additionally, we only get five free transfers for the quarterfinal round, not enough to allow us to waste too many picks on stars featuring for underdogs. Yes there will be upsets, but the favored teams obviously have the best chance of doing well and advancing. Hey, it’s not rocket science!
So which teams look likely to pass through, and which players should we target from those squads? I will go ahead and break it down with a chart providing a basic statistical overview for each match-up in order to see what expected result we may glean. Taking into account Champions League form from earlier this season is by no means irrelevant, but I think it is more important to focus on each side’s domestic results both over the full season so far along with form since the post-World Cup return, given the much wider sample size of games therein, while also taking into consideration the relative strength of their domestic league within Europe. After all, there have been only six Champions League fixtures played by each team, and none in the past three and a half months due to the unusual timing of the 2022 international tournament in Qatar.
For our complete portfolio of fantasy content for Leg 1 of the Round of 16, see our article stream here. We will continue to add to it as MD-7 unfolds, so be sure to check in frequently.
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NOTES:
- The following charts and analysis include games through Saturday, February 11.
- The “Country Coefficient” is a UEFA calculation based on each nation’s performance in Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League play so far this season.
Paris Saint-Germain v. Bayern Munich
I think it’s no surprise when comparing Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich, it ends up being pretty close. In league play this season, both teams lead their respective domestic leagues. Bayern Munich have scored more goals, while PSG have conceded fewer. Bayern Munich would probably slightly win the argument with a better differential in a tougher league.
Since the restart, both teams have cooled off significantly. Bayern Munich seem to have gotten their mojo back with two straight wins by a combined score of 7-2 while PSG have wins in two of the past three. For PSG a big part of the problem has been injuries to key stars. Again, fairly even, but slight edge to Munich.
Domestic Play Comparison of PSG and Bayern Munich
Looking at history in recent years, Bayern Munich come out somewhat significantly ahead. The German giants have advanced to the Champions League quarterfinals or better in five of the past six seasons, compared to only twice for the French standard bearers since 2016-17. Perhaps that can be blamed on the fact that PSG do not face the level of competition week in and week out in France that Bayern Munich do in Germany as reflected by the gap in the country coefficients.
So overall I think we can favor Bayern Munich, but only just slightly as this is still a battle of titans. Given such a tough, fairly balanced match-up, it’s probably best to avoid players from this one. Bayern do tend to score goals, but the problem in the post-Robert Lewandowski era is that they spread them around and their players are expensive; do you really want to risk paying heavily and missing out on the fun? For PSG a huge downside is that fantasy favorites Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi and Achraf Hakimi all remain injury doubts for at the moment; either or all could feature, but what if your pick(s) end up merely coming on from the bench late in the game? We may want to add one (or more) of them for the second leg, making it all the more important to get our first leg picks right.
Again this looks like a fairly balanced match-up, but this time further down the pecking order with both teams outside their domestic leagues’ top two spots. AC Milan have a better rank, but the EPL is considered tougher than Serie A. Neither team has been prolific in terms of goal differential, particularly on the defensive side.
Domestic League Play Comparison of AC Milan and Tottenham
Since the World Cup break, both teams have struggled. Tottenham had hoped to have righted the ship with successive 1-0 victories against Fulham and Manchester City, but Saturday’s 4-1 loss at Leicester City has taken the wind out of those sails. Meanwhile, AC Milan will hope to have gotten back to the good with a 1-0 win over Torino, but that followed three straight losses by a combined score of 10-2.
So this pretty much seems like another toss-up. However, given both teams’ defensive frailties, it could make sense to dip our toes into this pool and grab an attacking player. As much as this goes against my general philosophy of picking favorites, with Messi and Mbappe being injury doubts (along with several other stars in the field of 16) it may be necessary to take more of a risk at one of the forward spots.
Let’s start with Tottenham forward Harry Kane (€10.5m), who unfairly seems to be the Premier League’s forgotten man this season thanks to the otherworldly exploits of Man City newcomer Erling Haaland. Even so, Kane is on pace to have one of his best EPL campaigns ever, scoring 17 goals in 23 games so far. For AC Milan their most potent attacker is forward Rafael Leão (€8.5m) who has racked up 8 goals and 6 assists in 21 Serie A appearances, although fellow forward Olivier Giroud (€8.0m) is another option having scored 7 times with 4 helpers in 20 games. With the first leg being at San Siro, going with AC Milan attack could prove prudent.
Both teams will feature cheap deputy goalkeepers since their #1 choices are currently injured, but I don’t recommend going that route. Straight off the bat, the chances for a clean sheet are slight since both defenses are shaky as mentioned. But more importantly, do you really want to have to use one of your limited free transfers on a keeper either for the second leg (as is likely with Milan) or the next round (as is likely for Spurs)? I certainly don’t.
Club Brugge v. Benfica
Benfica are #1 in Liga Portugal, which is rated as a tougher league than the Belgian Pro League where Club Brugge rank only fourth. Benfica’s form has not been as strong since the restart as it was at the beginning of the season, but it has been far worse for Brugge which have struggled mightily since the restart, with but a single win in the past seven tries in domestic play and a negative differential in that time.
Domestic League Play Comparison of Club Brugge and Benfica
A-ha, finally we have a true mismatch! How many Benfica players are we allowed to grab? The answer is five. The maximum may be a bit too much of an investment, but I’m thinking we should look into adding three or four Benfica players.
Forward Gonçalo Ramosand midfielder Joao Mario (€6.1m) are the driving forces in the Benfica attack, each boasting 12 goals and 4 assists in domestic play so far this season. Unfortunately Ramos is an injury doubt, so he seems to be too risky right now. At the other end of the pitch, both wing backs offer attacking appeal as well in the forms of left back Alejandro Grimaldo (€5.3m) who has 2 goals and 6 assists along with right backAlexander Bah (€4.5m) who has 1 goal plus 4 assists; of the pair, Grimaldo has been more reliable in terms of racking up ball recoveries in Champions League play. Keeper Odysseus Vlachodimos (€5.0m) is also attractive as a cut-rate option compared to the pricier net minders from bigger teams.
Borussia Dortmund are about where we would expect them, 3rd place in the Bundesliga. Chelsea, meanwhile, have completely shuttered projections, slipping all the way down to 9th place at current. And the Blues have failed to get any momentum going since the World Cup break, outscoring their EPL opposition only 7-5 in aggregate with lackluster draws against West Ham, Fulham and Nottingham forest along with a loss at Fulham in that time. Dortmund, on other hand, have actually improved their form with a perfect record of five wins in as many tries since the restart by a combined score of 15-5.
Domestic League Play Comparison of Borussia Dortmund and Chelsea
Again, I think we have a fairly clear mismatch in favor of Borussia Dortmund, so let’s consider adding some of their players. An awful lot of their offense actually comes from their defense, so I will start there with center backNico Schlotterbeck (€5.1m) who has three goals and five assists in 20 Bundesliga tilts. Another good option is left back RaphaëlGuerreiro (€4.7m) who has scored once with six helpers in 17 appearances, but Schlotterbeck has been more proficient at notching ball recoveries in Champions League play.
The Dortmund forward line is fairly anonymous following the departure of Haaland, so otherwise you will also want to consider attacking midfielder Julian Brandt (€7.2m) who boasts six goals and four assists in 20 games along with fellow midfielderJude Bellingham (€7.5m) who has four goals and assists apiece in 19 appearances.
Liverpool v. Real Madrid
Along the same lines as Dortmund/Chelsea, the Liverpool/Real Madrid match-up features a shockingly underperforming EPL side against a team which is doing about what we would expect, this time in the form of Champions League trophy holders Real Madrid who are in second place in La Liga behind only Barcelona.
And while Real Madrid’s form has dipped since the World Cup with only three wins in the six games, Liverpool have been absolutely atrocious in recent times with one draw and three losses in the past four games, being outscored 10-1 in league play for the calendar year so far.
Domestic League Play Comparison of Liverpool and Real Madrid
So with another seeming mismatch on our hands, let’s highlight Real Madrid assets. Superstar striker Karim Benzema (€10.7m) has had injury issues this season, but he seems to be fit now, and with 9 goals and 3 assists in 20 league games this season, he should be the first name on the list. We must also strongly consider left wing midfielder Vinicius Junior (€10.0m) who boasts 7 scores plus 3 helpers in 20 appearances along with right winger Rodrygo (€8.0m) who has four goals and five assists in 18 games, plus there is also much more affordable central midfielderFederico Valverde (€6.6m) who has 6 goals and 2 assists in 20 games. Given the range of options here, when assembling your team, it may be a good idea to wait on midfield and see how much you have left in your budget to determine who you add from Real Madrid.
Defender David Alaba (€5.9m) has a goal and three assists in 17 games and offers the best route into the Real Madrid back line players not currently flagged with fitness issues.
Eintracht Frankfurt v. Napoli
While the Bundesliga is ranked as a tougher league than Serie A, the fact remains that we’ve got the #1 team in Serie A pitted against the #6 team in the Bundlesliga. The numbers bear it out, as Napoli boast a differential of 1.71 goals per game compared to only 0.74 for Eintracht Frankfurt over the entire season. Both teams have played well since the restart, but Napoli have been even better, winning their past five league games by a combined score of 14-2.
Domestic League Play Comparison of Eintracht Frankfurt and Napoli
So I think we can feel pretty comfortable about investing in high-flying Napoli. Most of the offense comes from forward Victor Osimhen (€7.9m) who has scored 16 goals with 4 assists in 17 league games, along with left wing midfielder Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (€5.9m) who has 8 goals and 11 assists in 17 games.
But the defenders also pitch in, as right back Giovanni Di Lorenzo (€5.1m) has a goal plus three assists in 21 games of league play, while left back Mário Rui (€5.0m) has six assists in 21 appearances. The tie breaker should go to Di Lorenzo who has been much better than Rui in the ball recovery department in Champions League play. You may not know it but I’m really not a fan of paying too much at goalie when I don’t have to, so keeper Alex Meret (€5.0m) offers a cut rate option for a solid starter at the position.
RB Leipzig v. Manchester City
This is a match-up most of us probably circled in significant favor of Manchester City when the Round of 16 draw was first announced. However, things have changed a bit since then, with the Citizens cooling off a bit since the World Cup break. Even so, losses to Manchester United and Tottenham are tough to make too much of a fuss over given that they are both top five EPL teams and each game was away from the Etihad.
Domestic League Play Comparison of RB Leipzig and Manchester City
What should be in question regards the Manchester City players’ mindset following the Premier League recently lodging a staggering litany of financial impropriety charges against the team. If you feel the team can overcome the surrounding existential ennui, then go ahead and invest in their players. If instead you are wary of the situation, then it will be more prudent to invest lightly or look entirely elsewhere for your fantasy assembly.
I don’t think most managers will have too much hesitation grabbing forward Erling Haaland (€11.1m) given his dazzling performance from the get-go with City, boasting a whopping tally of 25 goals and 3 assists in only 20 EPL games. Midfielder Kevin De Bruyne (€10.5m) has been prolific as a provider with 3 goals and 12 assists in 21 appearances.
On the back end, versatile defender Nathan Ake (€4.4m) seems to have won a consistent starting spot since the restart and provides a very affordable route into the City back line, although he does not offer anything in the way of attacking potential. Of course, with João Cancelo gone on loan to Bayern Munich, you won’t really be looking for much if any offense from the City defense. But Ake has done well with ball recoveries in Champions League, nabbing 15 of those in only 182’.
After a fair number of unbalanced match-ups, now we go back to a fairly even one. Both teams are ranked second in their leagues. Inter Milan gets the advantage since Serie A is ranked as a tougher one than the Portuguese Primeira Liga, but Porto gets the advantage since they’ve got a better differential over the season on a whole and since the restart.
Domestic League Play Comparison of Inter Milan and Porto
So in the end, maybe this match-up is better to avoid unless you have a need for a cheap defender. Inter Milan left back Federico Dimarco (€4.6m) has three goals and two assists in 21 league games, plus he has 19 balls recovered in only 239’ of Champions League play this season. Meanwhile, Porto right backJoao Mario (€4.3m) has a goal plus four helpers in 13 league appearances. Finally, who could blame any fantasy manager for going with affordable Porto keeper Diogo Costa (€5.2m) who has amazingly already saved three penalties in Champions League play?
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Right now after the group stage, I have 508 points in Champions League fantasy, good for #40 in the NMA league (out of 2K+), #51 in the USA (out of 28K+) and #2,607 overall in the world (out of 1.75M+). Here’s hoping my picks pay off!
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(Statistical/pricing/fixture result information used in this article came via UEFA.com, official UEFA Fantasy Football, ESPN football and transfermarkt.)
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