Champions League predictions: Round of 16 second leg picks featuring Arsenal, Barcelona, more
The 2023-24 UEFA Champions League round of 16 games will conclude with second legs taking place Tuesday and Wednesday, as several home teams try to overcome setbacks in the first leg to advance. Arsenal, FC Porto, Barcelona, Napoli, Borussia Dortmund, PSV Eindhoven, Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan will be in action. All games are available to watch on Paramount+ and select other services.
DraftKings Sportsbook and our predictions for each contest.
Champions League round of 16 second leg picks
Arsenal vs. FC Porto - Tuesday, March 12, 4 p.m. ET (0-1 aggregate)
Moneyline oddsArsenal: -450Draw: +600
FC Porto: +1200
To advanceArsenal: -295
FC Porto: +225
The Gunners are having no problems scoring goals in the Premier League but that firepower vanished in the first leg in Portugal. The hosts scored a winner in stoppage time on a fantastic shot from Galeno, effectively nullifying what was a dominant Arsenal performance. The Gunners now have to put up or shut up at home, where they have lost just once all season.
Arsenal come into this game off a 2-1 win over Brentford, their third win in a row and their eighth straight in EPL play. None of that matters Tuesday if Arsenal cannot win this clash at home. Gabriel Martinelli is considered questionable and would be a big loss but Gabriel Jesus and Leandro Trossard are more than capable replacement options. Oleksandr Zinchenko and Takehiro Tomiyasu are expected to be fit to play.
FC Porto are getting a nice boost on the injury front with Mehdi Taremi potentially able to return. The veteran forward hasn’t played in over a month but is more than capable of changing the game even as a substitute. The Portuguese side were totally powerless without Taremi and it’ll be hard to see them doing much offensively without the backing of their home crowd.
I think Arsenal know this match is a chance to show they are legitimate title threats in the Premier League as well. I’ll take the Gunners to win by multiple goals.
Pick: Arsenal -450
Pick to advance: Arsenal -295
Barcelona vs. Napoli - Tuesday, March 12, 4 p.m. ET (1-1 aggregate)
Moneyline oddsBarcelona: -115Draw: +285
Napoli: +310
To advanceBarcelona: -230
Napoli: +180
The La Liga giants are dealing with some major injuries heading into this game, with Ferran Torres, Frenkie de Jong, Pedri and Gavi all sidelined. That’s effectively the entire midfield, which is a huge battleground within the contest. Barcelona will have the backing of their home crowd, but they’re going to have to find a way to score a goal while not giving one up. Marcos Alonso should come back, which is a nice boost.
Napoli are much more intact, with only Jens Cajuste and Cyril Ngonge likely to miss out due to injuries. The Serie A side have not been able to duplicate their domestic success but this is the competition they can make their name in. Napoli have two draws in their last four games but they did recently get an inspired win over Juventus. They’ll be looking for the upset in this one.
Despite the injuries, I do believe Barcelona are the better side overall and have been more consistent. I’ll back them as the home team to get the job done, especially since they only have to win to advance on aggregate.
Pick: Barcelona -115
Pick to advance: Barcelona -230
Borussia Dortmund vs. PSV Eindhoven - Wednesday, March 13, 4 p.m. ET (1-1 aggregate)
Moneyline oddsBorussia Dortmund: +110Draw: +285
PSV Eindhoven: +220
To advanceBorussia Dortmund: -165
PSV Eindhoven: +135
Dortmund appeared to have PSV on the ropes before a penalty in the second half, which the Dutch side converted to level the score. However, this match will be in Germany where Dortmund have lost just three times. PSV haven’t lost on the road but they’ve been beating up on weak domestic sides.
Sebastian Haller is expected to be out for the Bundesliga club but George Kobel should be back in goal. That’s a big boost for Dortmund. PSV are likely to be without Joey Veerman and Noa Lang.
The Eredivisie leaders come into this contest winning two of their last three matches, with one draw. However, I don’t expect them to be able to keep up with Dortmund in this encounter. Give me the German side to advance.
Pick: Borussia Dortmund +110
Pick to advance: Borussia Dortmund -165
Atletico Madrid vs. Inter Milan - Wednesday, March 13, 4 p.m. ET (0-1 aggregate)
Moneyline oddsAtletico Madrid: +190Draw: +230
Inter Milan: +155
To advanceAtletico Madrid: +310
Inter Milan: -425
Atletico Madrid are coming into this match off a surprising loss to Cadiz, and it doesn’t get much easier with last year’s Champions League runners-up Inter Milan holding a 1-0 aggregate lead. Atleti have never been good at playing from behind, even at home. That’s going to be the case again Wednesday. Antoine Griezmann and Jose Gimenez are considered injury question marks for the La Liga side.
Inter Milan have much bigger issues with Marko Arnautovic and Carlos Augusto suffering injuries over the weekend. Both are considered doubtful but there’s a possibility they play even in a limited capacity. The Serie A leaders have little to worry about domestically, so this is the competition they’ll be going harder in. Inter Milan have won every match since the round of 16 in the Coppa Italia last December.
Even though Inter have some injury issues, I don’t think Atleti have the firepower or ability to make a comeback. Give me the Serie A leaders to see this out, even if they don’t win the leg.
Pick: Draw +230
Pick to advance: Inter Milan -425
