Chelsea at Manchester City: EPL betting guide and tips
We’ve finally arrived at Chelsea’s last three matches of the season, and the past eight months of supporting this team have probably taken a tangible amount of time off my life. The constant managerial changes and overall lack of direction have been incredibly frustrating to experience as a fan, so I can only imagine what it’s been like for the players, management, and club staff. Regardless, the Blues survived another Premier League campaign without being relegated, and for that, we should be thankful.
However, it’s a strange feeling to be watching weeks of football that essentially mean nothing. CFC’s Premier League title hopes were over before the World Cup, they were eliminated from both domestic cup competitions relatively early, and their European run was halted in the quarterfinals by an underperforming Real Madrid side. There wasn’t even a chance at sneaking into the Europa Conference League. I’ve written these words a million times before, but the vibes around Stamford Bridge have been terrible since Thomas Tuchel’s departure back in September, and restoring a culture of positivity in west London will be of the utmost importance during this upcoming offseason.
The other big news item surrounding the Blues over the past week has been Mauricio Pochettino’s impending appointment as manager. I’ve been a vocal critic of Poch since his time on the Spurs sideline, so I can’t say I was too pleased with the initial reporting. And I’m still not sold, but there have been some stories about the Argentinian tactician that made me question my dissatisfaction when they came across my timeline. I didn’t realize that Poch is so demanding and puts a heavy emphasis on physical fitness. I still question if he has the mentality to manage at the top level after his stint in the French capital, but there’s no point in being negative before anything’s been made official. For now, I’ll just hope for the best.
However, it’s a strange feeling to be watching weeks of football that essentially mean nothing. CFC’s Premier League title hopes were over before the World Cup, they were eliminated from both domestic cup competitions relatively early, and their European run was halted in the quarterfinals by an underperforming Real Madrid side. There wasn’t even a chance at sneaking into the Europa Conference League. I’ve written these words a million times before, but the vibes around Stamford Bridge have been terrible since Thomas Tuchel’s departure back in September, and restoring a culture of positivity in west London will be of the utmost importance during this upcoming offseason.
The other big news item surrounding the Blues over the past week has been Mauricio Pochettino’s impending appointment as manager. I’ve been a vocal critic of Poch since his time on the Spurs sideline, so I can’t say I was too pleased with the initial reporting. And I’m still not sold, but there have been some stories about the Argentinian tactician that made me question my dissatisfaction when they came across my timeline. I didn’t realize that Poch is so demanding and puts a heavy emphasis on physical fitness. I still question if he has the mentality to manage at the top level after his stint in the French capital, but there’s no point in being negative before anything’s been made official. For now, I’ll just hope for the best.
Away from the pitch, the betting has been significantly more difficult since Chelsea’s 3-1 drubbing at the Emirates at the beginning of the month. The Blues have found their shooting boots all of a sudden, scoring goals in three consecutive games for the first time since the middle of March, which has made my strategy of hammering all available unders pretty ineffective.
I expect there to be a ton of goals in their next contest at The Etihad, so I’ll have to think differently for Sunday as well. I like the home side to score over 2.5 goals at +112 odds, which would be the highest team total I’ve taken in all of 2022/23. This play is really speaking to me for a few reasons. First, it’s Manchester City. Pep Guardiola’s squad has gelled into a relentlessly determined machine that seems set on defeating each opponent by a greater margin of victory. City’s performance in the second leg against Real Madrid was unlike anything I’ve seen done to Los Galacticos before, so what chance does this Chelsea iteration have? Second, the club from the capital has lost its defensive resoluteness over the past few weeks, conceding at least once in every outing since April 4 against Liverpool. I just don’t think Frank Lampard has any chance of setting up the team for success.
A second bet I’ve been eyeing is the Manchester City to score in both halves prop at -122 odds. My rationale for taking this is the same as it was for the first play; the Citizens are absolutely dominant. They’ve found the back of the net in their four most recent halves of football. Even if Guardiola were to deploy an entirely different XI from the one that started on Wednesday, I still think this bet has a chance of hitting. Julian Alvarez, Riyad Mahrez, and Phil Foden are three of the most technically gifted forwards in the Premier League and they can barely get on the pitch. The depth of talent available at City is utterly insane.
Chelsea ML: +1100
Manchester City ML: -410
Draw: +500
Over/Under: 3.5 (+140/-172)
My Chelsea picks:
It’s looking like The Pride of London betting guide series might end the 2022/23 season in the red, my friends, but we’re not that far from getting back to even! There’s still time to turn things around, so ride with me and I’ll do my best to make amends. I like the aforementioned over 2.5 goals for the home team at +112 odds, as well as the Man City to score in both halves prop at -122. Finally, I’ll take City -1 at -140 odds. I like this value on a multi-goal win for Guardiola’s side, but remember that there’s no push on the three-way spread, so the bet is basically City -1.5. Even with that caveat in mind, I’m expecting the play to cash easily on Sunday.
