Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction, odds and betting tips

Chelsea have endured a difficult start to the season and things may not necessarily get better this weekend.

Chelsea vs Aston Villa odds

Here are the latest match odds for Chelsea vs Aston Villa. All odds are provided by our best-reviewed football betting sites.

⚡ Quick Chelsea vs Aston Villa tips

• Aston Villa or draw - 5/6 with bet365
• Over 2.5 goals - 4/6 with bet365
• Moussa Diaby to score any time - 10/3 with bet365

Chelsea vs Aston Villa predictions

Of the 17 teams that have been ever-present in the Premier League since the beginning of 2023, only Everton have collected fewer points than Chelsea.

A return of 25 points from 28 matches means the Blues have averaged 0.89 per game since January 1. 

This is not a small sample size. Twenty-eight games is the equivalent of almost three-quarters of a season. 

Is it time for Chelsea to worry yet? Yes and no.

The west Londoners were clearly a mess for much of last term, when four different managers - Thomas Tuchel, Graham Potter, Bruno Saltor and Frank Lampard - led the team from the touchline at different periods.

Todd Boehly’s approach to recruitment was haphazard and it was always going to take time for Chelsea to adjust to the change of regime at the top.

Given how much changed over the summer, it would be wrong to treat the current team as a continuation of the one that struggled so much last season.

Results have been mediocre at best under Mauricio Pochettino, who has tasted victory just once in his first five top-flight games at the helm.

But Chelsea have largely played well up to now. Their finishing has let them down: the Blues rank third-best for expected goals difference, behind only Manchester City and Arsenal.

Still, a malaise is setting in at Stamford Bridge and that should be cause for concern. Chelsea really need a big win to brighten the mood.

📝 Chelsea vs Aston Villa betting tips

Chelsea desperately need all three points but Aston Villa will be looking to make a statement of intent at Stamford Bridge.

Aston Villa or draw - 5/6 (bet365)

Incidentally, Aston Villa sit fourth in the aforementioned 2023 table. Only Manchester City and Arsenal have amassed more points than them since the start of the year.

That is testament to the marvellous work that Unai Emery has done since replacing Steven Gerrard last year.

Villa finished seventh last term and at a minimum they will be looking to repeat that achievement this time around.

They now have to balance domestic and European commitments, though, and whereas Chelsea have had a full week to prepare for this fixture, Villa were playing in Poland on Thursday.

Emery’s men came from behind to beat Crystal Palace 3-1 last Saturday, but they have lost both of their away league games to date, going down to Newcastle United and Liverpool.

This will be a test, then, but Villa will not have any fear when they arrive at Stamford Bridge, from where Nottingham Forest emerged victorious earlier this month.

If you fancy Villa but believe it could still be difficult for them to pick up all three points in west London, go for this wager in the double chance market - it is a smart way to hedge your bet.

Over 2.5 goals - 4/6 (bet365)

One thing that let Aston Villa down on their trips to Newcastle and Liverpool was their high defensive line.

Pushing your backline up the pitch is not a problem in itself. In fact, it is a tactic employed by most of the top teams in Europe today.

But Villa did not always get their timing right at St James’ Park or Anfield, resulting in the man on the ball having too much time to thread a pass in behind their defence.

Chelsea possess plenty of speed in attack via the likes of Raheem Sterling, Nicolas Jackson and Mykhailo Mudryk, so they should get chances here.

Their finishing is bound to come good at some point, even though Jackson has looked pretty unpolished in front of goal up to now.

But Villa pack a punch in attack too. They have found the back of the net 11 times so far and, based on expected goals, have created the second-most chances in the division, behind only Manchester City.

Consider, too, that all five of Villa’s Premier League games this season have featured at least three goals. Recent results suggest this would be a smart pick.

Moussa Diaby to score any time - 10/3 (bet365)

Moussa Diaby has hit the ground running since joining Aston Villa from Bayer Leverkusen over the summer.

Signed from the German outfit for around £52m - a club-record transfer - Diaby has scored two goals and provided two assists so far this season.

The France international had another goal disallowed against Crystal Palace last weekend for an offside in the build-up.

Diaby has looked sharp in and around the penalty area, and he will fancy his chances of breaching Chelsea’s backline this weekend.

The Blues, in fairness, have not fared too badly defensively up to now. Only Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City have conceded fewer goals in 2023/24.

They also rank highly for expected goals against: they are conceding fewer chances than anyone but Arsenal and Manchester City.

Yet Villa have been hugely productive going forward and Diaby has probably been their main attacking threat.

📺 How to watch Chelsea vs Aston Villa

• Location: Stamford Bridge, London, England
• Date and time: Sunday 24 September 2023, 2pm
• How to watch: Not being shown live in the UK

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