Chelsea vs Liverpool prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Tuesday Premier League match

While Liverpool and Chelsea both seemed at one time to be destined for disappointing mid-table finishes, one side has recovered while the other has not.

Now, they meet at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday in two very different situations. Liverpool continue their late-season hunt for European football, looking well off the level of the top Premier League clubs but good enough to push for a top six spot. Meanwhile, Chelsea are fresh off the expensive departure of Graham Potter as they sit 11th in the table.

Interim boss Bruno Saltor is now in charge of Chelsea and will hope for a late-season revival. It could start against Liverpool, who have looked good on occasion but completely lack any semblance of consistency. Since walloping Manchester United by an historic 7-0 scoreline, they have fallen to Bournemouth and Manchester City in two straight league defeats.

The Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and high risk/high return fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2023, his best bets have hit 52.6% of the time, while his overall selections have generated a profit of over 48 units thus far. He has also correctly predicted 44 of 31 match outcomes via his 3-way moneyline leans to date.

Chelsea vs Liverpool odds

The Blues have only just sacked manager Graham Potter, and are proceeding with an interim head coach, but they remain slight favourites given they are at home. The betting market also likely is factoring in the new manager bounce, which doesn't exactly apply here as there is no permanent boss in place, though interim Bruno Saltor could still provide a boost.

Another area where the bookmakers have bucked recent trends is in game flow, as goals are expected in this match. This comes despite Chelsea's struggles in front of goal under the now sacked Potter, as they were the worst finishing team in the Premier League during his tenure.

Chelsea vs Liverpool: Three things to know

Chelsea vs Liverpool match facts

• Date: Tuesday, April 4
• Kickoff Time: 3 pm ET / 8 pm BST / 5 am AEST (Wed, Apr. 5)
• Location: Stamford Bridge (London, England)
• Official: Anthony Taylor
• Last meeting: Liverpool 0-0 Chelsea (January 21, 2023 | Premier League)

Chelsea vs Liverpool team news

The Blues are slowly getting healthy, recovering from the injury crisis that Graham Potter was forced to navigate, but they still have a number of players sidelined. Thiago Silva is recovering from a knee injury, and Cesar Azpilicueta is still sidelined by concussion protocol. Armando Broja is out for the season, but a host of players could return. Raheem Sterling, Wesley Fofana, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and Edouard Mendy are all back in training and considered possibilities to make the squad.

Liverpool are in a similar situation, but their midfield is decimated. Stefan Bajcetic is out for the season with a groin injury, a real disappointment as the youngster had been exceptional in his short time as a starter for the Reds. Thiago is back in training, but this midweek match comes too early for him, while the same is true for Luis Diaz who is out here but could potentially be back against Arsenal on the weekend. Naby Keita is injured after picking up a muscle problem on international duty.

Chelsea vs Liverpool key stats

• Chelsea have won just two of their last 16 Premier League matches against Liverpool, and just seven of their last 32 dating back to 2006.
• These two sides have played to three consecutive 0-0 draws across all competitions. The last goal scored in this fixture was by Christian Pulisic on January 2, 2022 in Premier League action, sitting on 315 minutes of scoreless play. Prior to this stretch, Chelsea and Liverpool had not played to a 0-0 draw since 2008, a run of 39 straight matches with at least one goal.
• Mohamed Salah has scored four goals and assisted two more against Chelsea in Premier League action, but only one of those goals and one assist have come at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea vs Liverpool prediction

• Moneyline lean: Liverpool (+175)
• Against the spread lean (handicap): Liverpool +0.5 (-190)
• Score prediction: Chelsea 0-1 Liverpool

Liverpool have been Chelsea's bogey team over the last decade or so, and while the Blues may get a slight bounce from the departure of Graham Potter, Chelsea still have considerable flaws that stem from squad mismanagement and were evident even under Thomas Tuchel to start the year.

For whatever reason, these teams just seem completely unable to score against each other of late, so we're expecting another low-scoring affair although these teams have enough defensive flaws to give pause.

Chelsea vs Liverpool best bet

• Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
• Odds: -105 (BetMGM)

While it's entirely possible that this ends up being a track meet with both teams losing control of the match, most indicators show that this game should be a low-scoring affair.

Neither team has performed well in front of net lately, especially Chelsea, who were the worst finishing team based on expected goals under Graham Potter, scoring 21 goals from 28.4 xG. That -7.4 differential was the worst in the Premier League.

Liverpool's 7-0 outburst against Manchester United skews their recent numbers somewhat, but they failed to score despite 2.13 xG against Bournemouth in mid-March, and prior to the big United win, they had underperformed their xG total in 10 straight league games.

There may be chances in this game given the state of each team's midfield and back line, but between the two sides' poor finishing and the good form of both goalkeepers, especially Liverpool's Allison, this is more than likely to be another low-scoring affair.

Chelsea vs Liverpool prop bet

• Pick: Half with most goals — 1H (1st Half)
• Odds: +200 (BetMGM)

Both teams profile as almost a dead-even split between first and second half with a slight skew towards early goals.

Additionally, these two teams love scoring early against each other. There hasn't been a second-half goal scored between these two clubs since the 2-0 Liverpool win back in September of 2020, a full six matches ago.

That's skewed a little since they have played to three consecutive 0-0 draws, but in the three matches prior, all seven goals were scored before the break. It might be worth taking your chances here with a 2/1 return.