Chelsea vs Man City Prediction

Chelsea vs Man City Odds

The final box score is a bit misleading because of the two red cards and penalty against Spurs, but Chelsea had a statement win on the road against their London rivals Tottenham on Monday night. The Blues have now gone toe-to-toe with Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs and outplayed all three of them for large stretches of those matches.

Chelsea have had plenty of struggles breaking down lower defensive blocks and finishing chances — see Brentford and Nottingham Forest — but there's clear improvement in Chelsea's defensive press. When they're able to create high turnovers and break into space, the Blues have been as good as any team in the league.

Nicolas Jackson has struggled for finishing chances as the main runner and expected finisher for the Blues. His hat trick in the final 15 minutes against nine-man Spurs in the eventual 4-1 win could help improve his finishing confidence in front of goal ahead of this key Sunday match.

Read on for my Chelsea vs Man City prediction.

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You could make a case that Chelsea's best three performances of the entire season came in the games against the fellow big six sides. Mauricio Pochettino himself has commented that they've been more comfortable in matches where they've had space to run in behind. The problem for Chelsea against low blocks is well documented. Chelsea are third in the league in box entries and yet rank eighth in total shots.

Cole Palmer has also been a massive addition to the attacking output for the Blues. He's getting more than two shots per 90, has 0.77 NPxG + xA per 90 and is passing the ball into the penalty area four times per match.

They don't have the close control talent quality to navigate tight spaces and break down defenses that have numbers behind the ball. I do expect that to marginally improve when Christopher Nkunku returns from injury because of his creation ability. For now though, Chelsea will be generally overvalued in those spots. When playing as an underdog or against an opponent that wants to build-up and try to play through them, Chelsea are quite dangerous.

The Blues have settled in on an effective midfield that includes Moises Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez and Conor Gallagher. They are allowing the second-lowest build-up completion rate in the whole league — only Spurs are doing a better job of preventing opposition build-up. The key difference between Spurs and Chelsea overall defensively is that the Blues are not sacrificing defensive solidity for this press.

Chelsea have conceded the second-fewest big scoring chances and the fourth-fewest xG too.

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Man City had their October blip in form with the losses to Arsenal, Wolves and Newcastle, but the Cityzens appear to have solved any real issues with the attacking output. They dominated Manchester United in the derby, beat Bournemouth 6-1, pitched a shutout against Young Boys in the CL and have created 13.5 xG in their last four matches across all competitions.

Jeremy Doku has been the breakout star for the Cityzens this season, and his ball progression from the wide areas has been better than any wide player in the league. There's a real question about how much you should read into City dominating very inferior sides like Young Boys and Bournemouth, however. The Cityzens did manage less than 1 xG against both Arsenal and Brighton.

Doku has 37 carries into the penalty area in 5.5 Premier League 90s. That's only two behind Raheem Sterling, who has 39 carries in 10 90s. The key matchup for Chelsea is that Reece James is back fit. City took advantage of major athletic mismatches against Brighton, Bournemouth and Young Boys by basically walking the ball into the box through Doku. That will be harder to pull off against an elite defensive right back like James.

Chelsea vs Man City

Prediction

My projections have Manchester City as a -106 road favorite in this match, so I'd bet Chelsea +0.5 at +110 or better. If you think about this price in comparison to recent Manchester City prices, the Sky Blues are a bit inflated. City closed as a -165 road favorite at middling Manchester United two weeks ago, and there's a large gap between Chelsea and United at the moment. The Blues are playing like a fifth or sixth-placed team, while United are a mid-table side on in-season quality alone.

It wasn't that long ago that City barely closed as a favorite at Arsenal. Chelsea are trending upward and given the matchup doesn't exploit Chelsea's weakness, the Blues are undervalued to get at least a point at home.