Chelsea vs Newcastle United prediction, odds and betting tips

Newcastle United will be looking to inflict further misery on Chelsea in the final round of Premier League fixtures.

Chelsea vs Newcastle United odds

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Chelsea vs Newcastle United predictions

On Sunday afternoon at Stamford Bridge, two teams who have had very different seasons will go head-to-head.

This has been Chelsea’s worst campaign in the modern era. Not since 1995/96 have the Blues finished in the bottom half of the Premier League - and that was long before Roman Abramovich’s takeover made the club one of English football’s elite. 

Given they have spent close to £600m across two transfer windows under Todd Boehly’s chairmanship, this may well be the worst pound-for-pound season of any team in Premier League history.

Frank Lampard was brought in as interim manager with the intention of lifting the mood and restoring some sort of feel good factor following Graham Potter’s departure.

A strong end to the season under Lampard could have seen Chelsea qualify for the Europa League or the Europa Conference League.

At the very least it would have given the west Londoners a sense of momentum to carry into the summer and the start of next term.

But Lampard’s 10 games at the helm in all competitions have produced just one victory. Their latest setback was a 4-1 thrashing by Manchester United on Thursday night in which Chelsea were second best in all departments.

Given the resources at their disposal, Newcastle will be reasonably confident of finishing above Chelsea next season too. A win here would extend the gap between the two clubs to 30 points.

That in itself is a reflection of how badly Chelsea have performed and how well Newcastle have done in 2022/23.

Chelsea vs Newcastle United betting tips

Newcastle can compound Chelsea’s woes and wrap up a third-place finish at Stamford Bridge on Sunday afternoon.

Newcastle to win - 6/4 (bet365)

It is a measure of their progress (and Chelsea’s decline) that a Newcastle victory this weekend would not go down as a surprise result. In fact, a home win would be more of an upset based on the form of the two sides. 

In fairness, Newcastle have suffered a slight dip of late. They have won just one of their last four games - although that was an impressive 4-1 defeat of high-flying Brighton & Hove Albion.

What’s more, a 0-0 draw with Leicester City last time out can be considered a good result given Newcastle only needed a point to secure a top-four finish.

Eddie Howe will be glad there is nothing riding on this game. Despite Chelsea’s woeful season, he would not have wanted to be in a position where his team needed to win at Stamford Bridge to secure Champions League football.

The pressure is off to an extent, but do not expect a drop in intensity or endeavour from a team that has punched above its weight this season.

Newcastle have spent hundreds of millions of pounds since they were controversially taken over by Saudi Arabia in 2021, so this is not a fairytale story by any means.

At the same time, few anticipated Newcastle being on course to finish third (which would be their joint-best Premier League placing since 1996/97) in their first full season under Howe.

Put simply, Newcastle are a far superior side to Chelsea right now and that should be apparent this weekend.

Newcastle clean sheet - 11/4 (bet365)

In the first half of the campaign, Newcastle’s top-four challenge was built on a rock-solid defensive unit.

In their first 21 fixtures of 2022/23, the Magpies’ backline was breached on only 11 occasions. They kept 12 clean sheets in that time.

But around the turn of the year, the goal started to dry up for Newcastle. A run of one win in seven games saw the Magpies drop to sixth. They notched just three goals in those 630 minutes of action.

In recent months, Howe has put a greater emphasis on attack. He has recently found a way to get Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak into the team. More broadly, he has encouraged his players to take more risks in the final third.

This has come at the cost of some solidity at the back, but the results have been positive. Had Newcastle continued on the original path, they might have missed out on the Champions League.

Make no mistake, though: Newcastle remain a difficult team to play against. No team has conceded fewer goals this term. Only Manchester United have kept more clean sheets.

Chelsea, meanwhile, are the fourth-lowest scorers in the division. 

Callum Wilson to score any time - 6/4 (bet365)

Howe’s original plan for this season was to use Isak as his first-choice centre-forward and Wilson as the back-up option.

It is to the latter’s immense credit that he has forced his manager into a rethink over the last couple of months.

Wilson is Newcastle’s top scorer with 18 goals - seven more than the next-best Miguel Almiron. Eleven of those strikes have come since the start of last month.

Howe’s go-to setup now features Wilson as the No.9 and Isak as a left-sided forward with license to drift infield.

“He is certainly in great form,” Howe said earlier this month. “He is very focused at the moment. He knows he has to be because of the competition he has around him.”

How to watch Chelsea vs Newcastle United

• Location: Stamford Bridge, London, England.
• Date and time: Sunday 28 May 2023, 4.30pm.
• How to watch: Not being shown live in the UK.

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