Cheltenham Festival 2024: @RoadCheltenham Takes A Look At The Handicaps

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22 January 2024

Cheltenham Festival 2024: @RoadCheltenham Takes A Look At The Handicaps

With the majority of jumps action abandoned this week, it is the ideal time to look at the Cheltenham Festival handicaps. With Preview Nights on the horizon, I’m currently wading through the races to try and beat the price rush.

Picking a Festival handicap winner on the day is tough enough, but predicting the outcome in mid-January is almost impossible. However, that’s not going to stop me from making a few early handicap picks here, so let’s get on with it…

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I’ve been banging the drum for CHIANTI CLASSICO all season and I’m not going to stop now. However, it would be foolish of me to focus solely on the Kim Bailey runner and I’ve found a couple of potential runners who could go well in the opening handicap of the meeting.

First and foremost: the Irish have a terrible record in the race, failing to win any of the last 17 renewals. I can understand why MEETINGOFTHEWATERS is fancied in the betting but he’s far too short and history suggests that siding with the home team may prove fruitful.

APPLE AWAY would interest me off 141 but she has entries in the Brown Advisory Novices Chase and the National Hunt Chase. I’d consider backing her NRNB at 14/1 and hope that connections decide to go down the handicap route. She’s a good horse over three miles but surely wouldn't have the class for the Grade One.

Another one I’m keeping an eye on for this race is BRAVE KINGDOM. He was due to run at Ascot on Saturday but racing was abandoned so he does need to run once again before he’ll be eligible for a Festival handicap. However, he is currently rated 137 and I think he could be much better than that.

Odds correct as of 2024-01-21 14:52 Odds subject to change.

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The Boodles, also known as the Fred Winter, is usually one of the most competitive races at the meeting – highlighted by the fact that there’s been just one winning favourite in the last 10 renewals. Remember to take that into account when backing one for this particular race…

Willie Mullins has yet to win this race, though he has been knocking on the door with placed horses in four of the last five editions of the race. BATMAN GIRAC has been a warm order in antepost markets for this year’s renewal and he currently has a UK handicap mark of 133.

I like the look of KABRAL DU MATHAN for Paul Nicholls. He caught my eye in France and the manner of his recent success at Huntingdon suggests there is plenty under the bonnet. He has a rating of 122 but needs to run again to qualify for the race. Should he end up in the 127 region, I can see him running a big race.

The 4-yo rated novice hurdle at Naas in February is often an excellent pointer towards the Fred Winter, with three of the last five winners going on to win at Cheltenham. In addition, 2023 Boodles winner Jazzy Matty was fourth in that Naas race before the Festival so keep an eye on entries ahead of that meeting on 10th February.

Odds correct as of 2024-01-22 20:49 Odds subject to change.

I suppose we have to start with LANGER DAN, don’t we? He won the Coral Cup off a mark of 141 in March and four runs later, he’s rated… 141. A word of warning, he bled from the nose in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton in January and I wouldn’t want to be getting involved at his current price.

Nicky Henderson has a decent record in this race with mares and THEATRE GLORY would be one on my shortlist if she lined up here. She ran well on seasonal debut in the Ascot Hurdle but fell on her most recent run. She’s due to run at Doncaster this weekend and I’d fancy her to head to this race over the Mares Hurdle if she falls short on Sunday.

BALLYADAM is one that would interest me in this race. Henry de Bromhead has had at least three winners in each of the last three years and I’d like Ballyadam’s chances in the Coral Cup if he heads this way. He’s been a consistent horse over the past 12 months and I’ll be hoping the handicapper doesn’t add too much to his 144 Irish mark.

Odds correct as of 2024-01-22 10:24 Odds subject to change.

He’s a bit of an obvious one but I really like SAINT ROI for this race. I think his form is solid and he was a clear eyecatcher at Fairyhouse in January. A Grade 1 winner over fences as a novice, he jumps well and he should be in the mix. He’ll have no issue with a big field, having beaten 23 rivals in the 2020 County Hurdle at the Festival.

SA FUREUR is going to have entries across the board and predicting his Cheltenham target is going to be tough. His run behind Quilixios at Naas in January was solid form and I’d like to see Gordon Elliott aim him at this race. He’s 16/1 in NRNB markets while he’s as high as 33/1 antepost. Roll the dice or play it safe? You decide…

Dan Skelton has an excellent record in the County Hurdle and PEMBROKE went off a red hot favourite for that race last year but flopped on the day. However, I think he could well make amends in the 2024 Grand Annual. He ran well behind JPR One at Lingfield but was giving weight to the winner and connections will be hoping he stays on a mark of 140.

Odds correct as of 2024-01-22 12:16 Odds subject to change.

I had a brief chat with Gavin Lynch a couple of weeks back and his view on this race was the same as mine: it’s looking like a very poor renewal. That being said, there are still a number of qualifiers on the horizon and the outlook could change quickly – particularly if ABSOLUTE NOTIONS is able to qualify for the race.

Recently given a UK rating of 143, if he was able to run in a qualifying race and finish in third or fourth you’d imagine the handicapper would not adjust his mark. I’d say he has the potential to be rated in the 150s and that would make the Robcour runner an absolute certainty for anyone building an antepost book.

At this moment in time, ICARE ALLEN heads the betting for the race and it is easy to see why. He was given a tentative ride when finishing third at Aintree in November and he’s not seen the track since. Assuming he’s fit and well, one would imagine connections are happy with his mark and he’ll go straight to Cheltenham in March.

Odds correct as of 2024-01-21 15:46 Odds subject to change.

would take my fancy if he stepped up in trip after running exclusively over two miles in his first couple of chase runs. He has an entry this week over 2m4f and I’d like to see him stay on strongly, which shouldn’t be a problem given he is by Ocovango. He’s not priced up as of yet but I’d be hoping he’ll receive an entry in February.

It may seem a tad cliched to discuss an Emmet Mullins / Paul Byrne horse for a Cheltenham Festival handicap but the acquisition of CAPTAIN CONBY raises eyebrows. He ran off 140 on his last UK appearance but was way down the field and I’d expect him to be given a mark of around 138. He’d certainly be in the mix off that rating.

Last but not least, Inothewayurthinkin is a short price for Gavin Cromwell but I much prefer stablemate PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS at the prices. Trying to predict how JP McManus is going to juggle his handicap horses is no easy feat but I’d be quietly confident of a run if Cheltenham is the target. He’s a fair horse.

It’s worth noting that the Kim Muir has an upper rating limit of 145, meaning horses with a British rating of 146 or higher cannot run in the race. That is well worth remembering as current antepost favourite MEETINGOFTHEWATERS has a UK rating of 147 and cannot run in the race off his mark.

Gordon Elliott has a decent record in this particular race and COOL SURVIVOR is on my radar to line up here. He’s been given an entry in Britain this weekend but marks aren’t published until Tuesday so I’m not sure what his UK rating is, however it won’t be above 145. Given a nice enough figure, Elliott may hold him back for March.

I don’t really have a strong fancy for the race but YEAH MAN is one who I will have to back if he’s declared come Cheltenham week. He is a maiden after eight races over fences but looks to have a big pot in him and he can go one better for Gavin Cromwell after Stumptown was second in the 2023 renewal.

Odds correct as of 2024-01-22 16:46 Odds subject to change.

There are some crazy prices in the antepost market for this race, with several high profile runners at the top of the betting. Remember – horses need to have run at least four times over hurdles to qualify. That rules the likes of Predators Gold, Down Memory Lane and Daddy Long Legs out of the race.

Dr Eggman is a shorter price than BIALYSTOK but I’d fancy the latter off his current mark and I think a big field and quicker ground over two miles would be right up his street. The Royal Bond form looks strong enough and I’m hoping it was a deliberate move to skip the 2m handicap hurdle at Leopardstown to maintain his mark with Cheltenham in mind.

Another who I’d love to see run in this race is LUCCIA. Nicky Henderson seems intent on sending her down the Mares Hurdle route but I don’t think she stays 2m4f and I think she’d have a fantastic chance of winning the County off 140. Come on Nicky, you know it makes sense!

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I backed STELLAR STORY for the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at the start of the season but I’m now thinking he may head to this race instead. He probably isn’t Grade 1 standard and he has a decent mark in Ireland so should get into the Martin Pipe off a nice weight. I’d have him there or thereabouts at this stage.

Plenty will fancy KING OF KINGSFIELD for the County Hurdle but I’d love to see him step up in trip to 2m4f. I could see him cruising into it but would the Cheltenham hill work against him? He has been accused of being weak in a finish and he’d have to be played late to give him the best chance of victory.

One who has gone under the radar somewhat is WATERFORD WHISPERS. I wouldn’t normally look at a Henry de Bromhead horse for this race but I like this horse’s profile and he could be considerably better than his mark. And if you’re looking at him, you have to look at CHAMPAGNE ADMIRAL as his form ties in with the well regarded An Tobar.

Odds correct as of 2024-01-21 14:52 Odds subject to change.