Cheltenham Tips: Cheltenham Festival Novice Chase Preview

Cheltenham tips:

I can’t ever remember the Cheltenham Festival Novice Chase division being this open.

Usually at least one of these races would be considered as a done deal, but this definitely isn’t the case in 2024. 

Of course, we all love when we can look forward to an absolute superstar, but there is something very exciting when festival races are this open. 

While we can unfortunately expect small fields, we can also hope for very competitive affairs at least. Quality over quantity, as they say. 

Arkle Novices’ Chase

This 2024 Arkle Novices’ Chase is one hell of a quandary.

All season, plenty of us thought that it was simply a case of Marine Nationale turning up and claiming the prize, but this premise was blown to pieces at the Dublin Racing Festival when he was well beaten behind Il Etait Temps.

It is just very hard to forgive that effort. 

There is the obvious fact that he can still win here, particularly if the ground dries up, but he looked in serious trouble with his breathing that day and at a best price of 5/2 on betting sites I think it is wise to avoid him. 

While the excuse of the ground being too heavy may be valid, he has won before on this going, so I do believe he is a tricky proposition going forward in any circumstance.

I am also happy to avoid Il Etait Temps who has now impressed twice at the Dublin Racing Festival, only to disappoint at Cheltenham. I am just not convinced he likes Prestbury Park.

Of the others, Found A Fifty’s tendency to jump right makes him a hard betting proposition, Inthepocket has barely been seen, Facile Vega doesn’t jump quick enough to run here (more on that later) and Hunters Yarn is very raw, and doesn’t even seem like he will take part with a campaign in Ireland mooted by Willie Mullins. 

You’d have to assume that Gaelic Warrior won’t take his chance here either, and in my opinion JPR One just isn’t good enough for win purposes.

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This leaves my fancy, Quilixios. 

He has already won at the festival, showed last time he jumps well enough over this trip and looks undervalued at 10/1 with BetMGM.

You can easily forgive his one poor performance this season as it was over an unsatisfactory trip of three miles, and he is a very solid contender who looks overpriced. 

There should be plenty of pace on, and a stayer over this trip could pick up the pieces, and Quilixios fits the bill. At the moment you can get three places in the ante-post Cheltenham markets and with a likely small field this does look a good angle in a very open and winnable race.

Henry De Bromhead is no stranger to taking an Arkle, winning this in 2010 and 2020 and he can taste victory here once again. 

National Hunt Chase

This looks another likely small field, but I am starting to really like Embassy Gardens.

I was convinced I wanted to take him on, and my initial plan for this article was to back Salvador Ziggy but having rewatched Embassy Gardens’ runs this season I just can’t get away from the thought that he is the best horse for this test by a considerable margin.

Embassy Gardens has been effortless so far over fences and has taken to it like a duck to water. At Punchestown he was faultless when seeing off Lets Go Champ and last time he easily dismissed Sandor Clegane, a horse who is quite talented on his day having finished third in the 2023 Albert Bartlett.

He looks very good over a fence, looks a sure-fire stayer and I just don’t see who beats Embassy Gardens.

Corbetts Cross seems to be his main challenger, but I am not convinced on him at all as a stayer. He fell last time which is obviously not the best preparation and I really question how well he stays a trip.

I am convinced Corbetts Cross had started to empty when running out in last year’s Albert Bartlett and he looked a non-stayer to me when behind Grangeclare West at Christmas. I am more than happy to avoid him.

Next in the market is Nick Rockett, who is definitely talented, but I was disappointed he couldn’t get the job done last time and all the noise coming from Closutton is that the aforementioned Embassy Gardens is their preferred horse here.

I do like Salvador Ziggy who ran to a big number for a novice in the 2023 Kerry National, but I believe he can only win if there isn’t a genuine Grade One horse running, and I think there is at least one.

I really don’t see the rest of the potential runners as factors from a win point of view. He is too short to recommend as an ante-post bet, but Embassy Gardens looks very solid.

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase

Earlier this season I tipped Monty’s Star at 50/1 for this race and I am very happy to stick with this selection.

While the big news in recent days has been that this is the intended target of Fact To File, I am still more than happy to take him, and the field, on with Henry de Bromhead’s charge.

Fact to File has been superb in his two victories to date over fences, but it is very hard to get to grips with what he has actually achieved. On his first start he was beaten by American Mike, but this is easily forgiven as Mullins’ horses desperately needed the run.

He improved a lot for that and at Christmas jumped for fun as he hammered his rivals into submission at Leopardstown. Next time, once again at Leopardstown, he won as he liked in a two-runner affair, this time seeing off the enigmatic Gaelic Warrior.

There are several holes to pick here though.

On the first win at Leopardstown the race rather fell apart, and the second home Zanahiyr doesn’t add much strength to this form over fences at this level. 

Last time against Gaelic Warrior, that rival went far too quick in front and rather threw a strop after losing the lead when jumping right throughout. 

While Fact To File can only win as he did, I want to take him on at 6/4 on horse racing betting sites as we have a lot to learn yet about him. We have never seen him win over three miles and we have never seen him come out the right side of a prolonged battle

Stay Away Fay has been good, but I don’t think the old course will suit him as he has a tendency to jump slowly, and I don’t think Grey Dawning is good enough or jumps well enough to make his presence felt.

After this it is hard to find a runner and we can expect a small enough field here.

Monty’s Star comes to the festival having only had the two starts so far, but this isn’t rare for connections as they plotted a very similar course for Minella Indo back in 2020. He will love this challenge, jumps beautifully and I think he is a very good horse indeed.

A price of 7/1 on betting apps is arguably still value in a race that may cut up further.

Turners Novices’ Chase

This is another race that looks like it could be a very small field and is one race the festival could probably do without.

Firstly, Fact To File would win this in my eyes if he ran here, but it does appear as if the Brown Advisory is where he will head to next. 

Forgetting that rival, I will be very keen to take on Gaelic Warrior wherever he runs at Cheltenham. You don’t get away with jumping right as he does at Prestbury Park. It really is that simple.

The favourite, Ginny’s Destiny, is very interesting but is plenty short enough now on what he has achieved.

Iroko’s price of 5/1 on gambling sites is crazy as well. We have seen him once over fences and it is very hard to fancy him after a troubled preparation.

Grey Dawning doesn’t jump well enough for a relative test of speed like this and after this you are struggling to find a potential runner, apart from the potential of Facile Vega who I hope they run here.

I have taken the 5/1 Non-Runner No Bet with bet365 about Facile Vega as I think he would improve a lot for this trip, the new course would suit him more and he improved a lot last season between the Dublin Racing Festival and Cheltenham.

Facile Vega obviously needs to improve on what he has done thus far over fences, but he could. The 5/1 NRNB with bet365 looks big as I do believe Paul Townend would ride him if he were to appear here. 

Diarmuid is a horse racing writer and podcaster covering the flat and jumps season across the UK and Ireland. Passionate about sport, broadcasting and media, he contributes occasional racing analysis and betting tips for The Independent.