Chiefs vs. Lions Week 1: Odds, picks, props and best bets

The reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs look to start their championship defense with a bang as they host the exciting Detroit Lions in the 2023 NFL season opener. The Chiefs went 14-3 last season en route to their third Super Bowl appearance (and second win) in four years. The Lions missed the 2022 playoffs with a 9-8 record but made nearly every game interesting.

While much of the roster will look familiar to fans, the Chiefs lost receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, two key weapons for Patrick Mahomes. Not that we should weep for the reigning NFL and Super Bowl MVP; the Chiefs are still the betting favorites to defend their Super Bowl title and further confirm themselves as a dynasty.

As dominant as the Mahomes-led Chiefs have been, they have not been dominant against the spread, particularly in the regular season. Kansas City was remarkably the 4th-worst ATS in the NFL last regular season, going 6-10-1 (including 2-6 at home). They have been even worse as heavy favorites. Going back to 2020, underdogs of 3.5 or more points have gone 26-10 (72%) ATS against the Chiefs. On the other hand, Kansas City has won an NFL-record seven straight Week 1 games.

Detroit had one of the better offenses in the league last season, finishing 5th in points per game (Chiefs were 1st). QB Jared Goff returns, as does Pro Bowl WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. While Jameson Williams will miss this one (gambling suspension) and the Lions lost their top two running backs from last season, they drafted two exciting weapons in RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta, who Coach Dan Campbell will be ecstatic to unleash on a Chiefs defense that was below average last season.

The Lions were essentially the antithesis to the Chiefs last season from an ATS perspective. While Detroit missed the playoffs with a 9-8 record, they were 3rd-best in the NFL with a 12-5 ATS record. Simply put, they were a covering machine. With the exuberant Dan Campbell back as head coach, there is no reason to expect anything different.

We are tempted by the Lions moneyline as well (+230, DraftKings), but if you’re feeling more conservative, the Lions +6.5 seems like an easy pick. The Chiefs season-opener streak is impressive, but more recent trends such as last season’s ATS records are more useful data here. While it’s never wise to doubt Mahomes, he does have to get used to a revamped receiving core. While they work out their kinks, The Lions offense should pick up where they left off and keep this one within a touchdown at the very least.

While Gibbs is the flashy new toy in the backfield, David Montgomery comes over from the Bears to fill the Jamaal Williams role. Although D’Andre Swift led the backfield in touches a season ago, it was Williams who led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns (four more than the closest contender). Montgomery had a nose for the endzone in his four years in Chicago. Look for him to find paydirt in this one.

Game prediction: Lions 35, Chiefs 31

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