Clippers vs. Suns odds, prediction: how we’re betting an overreaction to George injury
We have Clippers vs. Suns odds and predictions as the No. 5 seed Clippers and No. 4 seed Suns prepare to battle for as many as seven full games.
The market is betting on Phoenix heavily, as the Suns have looked unstoppable with Kevin Durant in the fold. Meanwhile, Paul George is injured for the entire series.
But things are never that simple in the NBA.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.
Spread: Clippers +6.5 (-110) vs. Suns -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Clippers (+240) vs. Suns (-305)
Total: Over 226 (-110) | Under 226 (-110)
Los Angeles Clippers +6.5 (-110) | Play to +4.5 (-110)
Ultimately, I think the Suns are overvalued. Of course, it’s hard to definitively conclude that until after Game 1, but I’m willing to fade them against what I think is an inflated number.
The Suns went 8-0 straight up and 6-2 against the spread (ATS) with Durant playing this season, posting an absurd +10.7 net rating with him on the floor. They looked unstoppable.
However, the Suns played zero competitive teams during those eight games. Durant-led Suns games this season included:
- A 14-point win over Charlotte
- A 21-point win over East No. 10 seed Chicago
- A four-point win over flailing Dallas
- A seven-point win over West No. 8 seed Minnesota
- A 10-point win over West No. 10 seed Oklahoma City
- A 21-point win over tanking San Antonio
The other two games came against the West’s top seed in Denver, but the Nuggets rested Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr. in both games. So, the Suns pulled off two single-digit wins over Denver’s second-stringers.
My theory is that while the Suns are good, their market value is based on several games against some well-below-average competition. So, while the Suns could be as good as advertised, they also could see a serious step back against a higher-quality opponent.
And with or without George, the Clippers are a higher-quality opponent.
The Clippers are deep, versatile and closed the season strongly. The Clippers were eighth in net rating over the final 15 games and fifth in points per 100 possessions over the season’s final two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass.
I do realize that George’s absence affects these numbers. However, I think the market has overreacted to his injury. I still trust the squad’s overall structure, and specifically, I trust in top option Kawhi Leonard.
Leonard is playing elite basketball, averaging 27.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.0 “stocks” (steals plus blocks) on 54% / 47% / 87% shooting splits since mid-February. To me, it feels like the market has forgotten about peak Leonard’s impact on a series.
Between the overrating of the Suns, the overreaction to George’s injury and the disregard of Leonard in the market’s handicap, I’m selling the Suns and buying the Clippers.
That starts with a bet on the Clippers as three-possession underdogs in Game 1. The sharp and smart money has been hitting the Clippers since the market opened, and I’m willing to bet that sharp angle down to two possessions.
