Coaching Club American Oaks Predictions, Best Bets (Saratoga)

When last seen, the late run of Gambling Girl fell just a neck short of victory in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She will try to validate that performance when she headlines a field of six entered in Saturday’s Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga. 

Although she has yet to break through with a graded stakes victory, the Todd Pletcher trainee has been getting close. Before her run in America’s most prestigious race for 3-year-old fillies, she was a close second in the Grade 2 Gazelle. 

The New York-bred daughter of Dialed In will be looking for her first win of the season in the 9-furlong test

Chief among her rivals in the Saturday feature will be Wet Paint. A Godolphin homebred, the daughter of Blame won three straight stakes races at Oaklawn Park earlier this season. 

The beaten favorite in the Kentucky Oaks was a rallying second last out in the Monomoy Girl Stakes at Ellis Park. 

Going gate to wire that afternoon was the always dangerous Hoosier Philly. A three-time stakes winner trained by Tom Amoss, she will be in search of her first Grade 1 score on Saturday. 

The Into Mischief filly was second in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan before upsetting Wet Paint in their most recent race.

Coaching Club American Oaks Predictions and Race Analysis

Gambling Girl

Sent off at 13/1, this New York-bred filly outran her odds in the Kentucky Oaks. The Todd Pletcher trainee finished with a flourish and was not far from getting up for the win. Away since then, she will look to build upon that performance with a Grade 1 win at Saratoga. 

Like Wet Paint, she clearly does her best running late. That formula can be difficult in a smallish field, but with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons, expect her to be in touch early. 

Having traded meetings with Wet Paint this year, it’s hard to predict which late runner will fare better on Saturday. Obviously a threat in here, I will be siding with another.

Wet Paint

With three stakes wins this year, this Brad Cox-trained filly should be considered the one to beat on Saturday. Although she was beaten in both the Kentucky Oaks and then the Monomoy Girl at Ellis Park last time, she did not run poorly in each. 

In fact, her second-place finish behind Hoosier Philly was quite good, as she got no speed to run at and still came running strongly down the lane. Stretching back out to 9-furlongs here, she should be in her element. 

If the speed of the race is softened up at all early, she will have a big shot to add a Grade 1 victory to her resume.

Hoosier Philly

A budding star at 2, this Into Mischief filly has taken some lumps in 2023. Most notably she faded well out of it when trounced by Southlawn in the Fair Grounds Oaks. 

Trained by Tom Amoss, she has regained some of her reputation in her last two starts, though. In May she set all the pace against a solid field in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan and stayed on for a clear second. 

Last out, she loped along on an easy lead and had no trouble in defeating Wet Paint in the Monomoy Girl. She should be on the lead again here, and with her improving form, I believe she has a big shot. She is the top pick.

Southlawn

This daughter of Pioneerof the Nile really looked like she was headed to big things, but quickly threw in the towel when the real running began in the Kentucky Oaks. 

Before that, the Norm Casse-trained filly had romped home in an allowance race in New Orleans, before easily handling the current division leader Pretty Mischievous in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. 

If you can draw a line through that dull tenth-place finish at Churchill Downs, she rates a big shot but this is no easy spot in which to bounce back in.

She’s Lookin Lucky

When she is good, she is very good. A winner by 20 combined lengths in her two career victories, this Lookin At Lucky filly has also disappointed plenty of times. 

She does have some early speed and comes in off a win, but in her only previous stakes try, she was beaten by Wet Paint by 15 lengths in the Grade 3 Fantasy.

Her last race, in which she beat allowance company at Ellis Park by 7 lengths looks good on paper, but until she proves she can handle top competition, I cannot recommend her chances against this level of competition.

Sacred Wish

This daughter of Not This Time may go off at the highest odds in the Coaching Club American Oaks, but she is not without hope. 

Unraced at 2, she broke her maiden nicely at Oaklawn Park in her second career start before graduating to a graded stakes company for veteran trainer George Weaver. A solid second in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, she then backed out badly in the Black-Eyed Susan. 

Bouncing back last time, she was a good second in a muddy allowance race at Belmont Park. I can’t pick her here, but an upset is not out of the question.