Fair Grounds Oaks Predictions, Picks, Odds (Fair Grounds)

The 2023 Kentucky Oaks trail through New Orleans will conclude on Saturday when stakes winners Hoosier Philly, Pretty Mischievous, and The Alys Look clash in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks.

Trained by Tom Amoss, Hoosier Philly is the likely favorite despite coming off a third-place finish last time in the local Rachel Alexandra Stakes in her seasonal debut. 

Before that, the daughter of Into Mischief was unbeatable as a juvenile, impressively winning all three starts including the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs in late November.

Chief among her competition in the $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks is the streaking Pretty Mischievous. A beaten third by Hoosier Philly when first they met in the Golden Rod, the Into Mischief filly is perfect in two starts since for trainer Brendan Walsh. 

After an easy score in the Untapable Stakes late last year, she turned the table on her rival while winning the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes five weeks ago.

Another who should get strong consideration on Saturday is the Brad Cox-trained filly, The Alys Look.

An improving daughter of Connect, she was second to Pretty Mischievous two starts back in the Untapable, but sandwiched that defeat with a romping maiden score and a game-win last time in the Silverbulletday.

As a Kentucky Oaks trail race, the 1 1/16-mile Fair Grounds Oaks will offer qualifying points on a scale of 100-40-30-20-10 to the top five finishers.

Fair Grounds Oaks Predictions and Race Analysis

Hoosier Philly

Trained by Tom Amoss, I didn’t see a 2-year-old filly in the country that impressed me more last year than this daughter of Into Mischief. Her three wins were pretty special. 

After about three months away before her 3-year-old debut, she returned as an overwhelming favorite in the recent Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra. Bumped and jostled early, she never looked comfortable in between and behind horses. 

When the real running began, she could do no better than third behind Pretty Mischievous, who she had handled easily last fall. I expect things to be different this time. With a decent trip on Saturday, I believe she will prove best against a couple of tough fillies. She is the top pick.

Pretty Mischievous

Round three of the rivalry between Hoosier Philly and Pretty Mischievous promises to be an interesting race, as both fillies look like legitimate threats for the Kentucky Oaks. 

I am giving Hoosier Philly the benefit of the doubt in the last one, but it’s hard to argue what this daughter of Into Mischief has done since losing the Golden Rod. Not only did she handle the favorite last time, but two starts back she was a pretty easy winner over The Alys Look. 

Likely to run another good race here, Hoosier Philly will have to live up to expectations to beat this one on Saturday.

The Alys Look

This daughter of Connect has shown steady improvement in her last three races for trainer Brad Cox. In fact, after a couple of unsuccessful maiden attempts in Kentucky to begin her career, she has looked like a new filly since arriving in New Orleans. 

Starting with a maiden romp, followed up by a second in the Untapable, and then a game victory last time in the Silverbulletday, she clearly looks ready for her graded stakes debut. 

With a similar running style to the top two, it should be a chess match early on. I like Hoosier Philly best here, but it would come as no surprise to see either of her top two challengers run a big race.

Southlawn

After only winning an Ellis Park maiden in her first five starts, this daughter of Pioneerof the Nile turned things around last time for trainer Norm Casse. 

While the impressive allowance victory was over the same track and trip which she will see on Saturday, I do see a couple of red flags. 

While it was her first try at Fair Grounds, she also ran with Lasix for the first time. She will not have it in the Fair Grounds Oaks. That fact, coupled with the big jump up in class, has me looking elsewhere in this Grade 2 affair.

Christian d’Oro

This daughter of Bolt d’Oro looks like the speed of the race. Shipping in from New Mexico, she has flashed some talent and plenty of early pace in her first four races. 

A stakes winner sprinting two starts back, she tried to stretch out to a mile last time and flattened out pretty badly down the lane in the Island Fashion. It looks like they tried to slow her down early, and it did not work. 

Look for her to go right out there this time and see how far she can take them. It will be a tough task for her to stick around all the way.