SARATOGA 2023: Odds-on favorites have been recent winners of Saturday’s Alabama (G1)

Odds-on favorites have played a prominent recent role in the Alabama Stakes (G1), winning five of the last 10 editions with Nest, Malathaat, Songbird, Stopchargingmaria and Princess of Sylmar. Two other recent winners, Swiss Skydiver and Dunbar Road, went off at slightly higher odds than even-money.

Although none of this year’s 10 entrants is expected to go off at such prohibitive odds, Wet Paint, the 5-2 morning-line choice, will almost certainly be a solid post-time favorite in the $600k race. The three-year-old Blame filly exits a thrilling neck victory four weeks ago in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) when she ran down longshot Sacred Wish in the final strides.

Wet Paint will be making her seventh start of the year in the Alabama. She won the first three, which included a pair of G3s at Oaklawn Park, but was left with too much to do in the Kentucky Oaks. She would benefit from a hot pace on Saturday.

The two-three finishers in the Coaching Club are back for another shot at the favorite. Sacred Wish’s (8-1 on the morning line) previous stakes experience included a second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) back in April and a ninth in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2), a race in which she had to be taken up early while in tight quarters. The daughter of Not Thia Time has put in three solid works at Saratoga leading up to the Alabama.

Gambling Girl (6-1) has been in the fight in several divisional races, including a tough neck beat by Pretty Mischievous in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and a close second in the Gazelle (G3). Like Wet Paint, this NY-bred daughter of Dialed In likes to come from off the pace.

Julia Shining is the second choice on the morning line at 9-2. A winner of the Demoiselle Stakes (G3) as a two-year-old, the daughter of Curlin has finished third in both of her 2023 outings, most recently a close finish in the Ashland (G1).

Defining Purpose (6-1) is a two-time graded winner at three, upsetting the Ashland (G1) at 20-1 and most recently taking the Indiana Oaks (G3) as the 2-1 second choice. Taxed (8-1)  sandwiched seconds in the Fantasy Stakes (G3) and Indiana Oaks with an open-lengths score in the Black-Eyed Susan.

Randomized (8-1), Fireline (12-1), Chocolate Gelato (12-1) and the Louisiana-bred Sabra Tuff (30-1) complete the field.