College Basketball National Championship Odds 2024: Kansas, Michigan State lead preseason favorites
The 2023-24 college basketball season tips off in 11 days as 362 Division I institutions vie for the chance to cut down the nets in Phoenix come early April. With 360-plus schools competing for a spot in a 68-team single-elimination tournament, picking the school fortunate enough to win the National Championship is an extremely challenging task.
However, that doesn't take away the fun of trying to predict which school will be the last one standing, and with plenty of intriguing futures prices out there, making a preseason National Championship bet is an entertaining way to expend a portion of your bankroll.
Last season's National Champion, the Connecticut Huskies, sat around the +8000 mark to win it all in the preseason. While many knew fifth-year head coach Danny Hurley was elevating the program after a rough end to the Kevin Ollie era, 30 other schools had superior National Title odds in the preseason, as the Huskies flew under the radar.
Before the start of the NCAA Tournament, the fourth-seeded Huskies had +1600 odds to win it all, eventually rattling off six consecutive double-digit wins to claim their fifth National Championship in school history.
Will another overlooked preseason team rise to the occasion en route to a National Championship, or will one of the preseason darlings live up to the hype?
Below, we'll break down our favorite preseason futures bets to consider, ranging from a couple of odds on favorites, sleepers, and long shots.
2024 Men's College Basketball National Championship Odds: Top 100
2024 Men's College Basketball National Championship Odds: Favorites
Kansas Jayhawks +1100 (implied probability 8.33 percent)
The 2022 National Champion Jayhawks are the preseason odds-on favorite to win the 2024 National Title, as head coach Bill Self has a deep and experienced roster that looks to run through the Big 12.
Despite losing its two most lethal offensive weapons on the wing, Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson, to the NBA, Kansas filled one of its most pronounced holes from last season -- a legit two-way five-man -- by landing three-time All-Big Ten center Hunter Dickinson from Michigan. Dickinson's presence gives Self a go-to low-post threat that few big men can contain over 40 minutes.
Kansas' biggest concern is consistent perimeter shooting, as a team with the future 13th-overall pick in Dick, who shot over 40 percent from three last season, still ranked 143rd in three-point scoring rate (34.7).
Towson transfer Nicolas Timberlake, who could sink close to 40 percent of his treys, should be the team's most consistent three-point shooter, but outside of Timberlake, it might be a struggle to space the floor.
An early-season matchup in the Champions Classic against Kentucky is a nice test to see how Self's squad stacks up against a fellow title contender.
That said, per KenPom's metrics, the Jayhawks have less than a 50-percent win probability in just two games this season, road trips to Baylor (46-percent win probability) and Houston (39-percent win probability). Both those games are in March, so there's a chance the Jayhawks remain the odds-on favorites for a good portion of the regular season.
Therefore, it might be worthwhile to bet the Jayhawks at 11-1 if you believe they'll reclaim the Big 12 regular season title for a third straight season.
Michigan State Spartans +1200 (implied probability 7.69 percent)
Despite finishing the Big Ten regular season 11-8 and falling to Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals, Tom Izzo did what he does best, leading an overlooked seven seed to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
The Spartans gave the third-seeded Kansas State Wildcats all they could handle in a narrow 98-93 overtime loss in the Sweet 16, and considering Michigan State returns eight of their top 10 players from last season, a +1200 price tag to win it all is justified.
Michigan State has loads of backcourt depth, headlined by super senior Tyson Walker and junior wing Jaden Akins. Four-star guard Jeremy Fears will also play a large role this season alongside senior A.J. Hoggard, giving the Spartans arguably the best backcourt in the country.
Izzo also has four reliable frontcourt pieces in Mady Sissoko, Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper, and highly-touted freshman Xavier Booker. Booker, the 6-10 five star recruit, has a smooth stroke from the perimeter for someone his stature, making him the highest upside frontcourt piece by a wide margin. Fellow freshman Coen Carr could also emerge as a stable piece on the wing if he can crack the rotation.
Given how disciplined the Spartans are on the defensive end, as an experienced team understands they need to lockdown on that end of the floor, 2023-24 could result in Michigan State's first National Championship since 2000.
2024 Men's College Basketball National Championship Odds: Best sleepers
Arkansas Razorbacks +2500 (implied probability 3.85 percent)
Eric Musselman continues to reload his roster via the transfer portal and isn't worried if his team struggles to find their identity in the early season. As we've seen the past three years, Arkansas tends to hit its stride in February, playing its best basketball when it matters most.
The Hogs must replace four key contributors from last year's Sweet 16 team: Anthony Black, Ricky Council, Jordan Walsh, and Nick Smith. Still, the additions of El Ellis (Louisville), Tramon Mark (Houston), Khalif Battle (Temple), Jeremiah Davenport (Cincinnati), and Chandler Lawson (Memphis) should make for a relatively smooth transition to a new core.
Arkansas' half-court offense might look lost at the beginning of the season as it did in ''22-23, but the Razorbacks will sit near the top of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric for most of the regular season. Not many teams will be able to score consistently in the half-court against Arkansas.
Alongside a slew of transfers, senior guard Davonte Davis and sophomore wing Trevon Brazile are their most notable returnees. Brazile played just nine games before a season-ending ACL injury but may end up being the team's most utilized offensive piece.
Never underestimate the Muss Buss.
North Carolina Tar Heels +4000 (implied probability 2.44 percent)
While Hubert Davis' Tar Heels became the first-ever preseason No. 1 to fail to make the NCAA Tournament in 2022-23, UNC makes for an intriguing sleeper pick with the betting market lower on the Tar Heels than usual.
Despite retaining go-to guard RJ Davis and AP Preseason All-American center Armando Bacot, UNC cleaned house, with eight players from last season's squad either graduating or transferring.
Davis landed several key transfers in Harrison Ingram (Stanford), Paxson Wojcik (Brown), Corman Ryan (Notre Dame), Jae'Lyn Withers (Louisville), and James Okonkwo (West Virginia) to help form a strong rotation of seasoned veterans. Additionally, five-star guard Elliot Cadeau has a shot to secure a starting spot in the backcourt next to Davis.
A change in identity should lead to a return to the NCAA Tournament for UNC, giving them plenty of sleeper appeal at +4000.
Villanova Wildcats (+3500); Florida Gators (+6000)
2023 Men's College Basketball National Championship Long Shot
Georgetown Hoyas +75000 (implied probability 1.32 percent)
Year one of the Ed Cooley era may result in a ninth or 10th place finish in the Big East. However, at +75000, we're willing to take a shot at Cooley helping Georgetown exceed expectations.
Only three players return from last season's 7-25 finish (Jay Heath, Wayne Bristol Jr., and Ryan Mutombo), as it's likely a positive that Cooley's first season in D.C. comes with a brand-new roster. Georgetown's perimeter offense looks to be the team's strength, as Heath and ex-Illinois guard Jayden Epps round out a respectable Hoya backcourt.
There's a reason Georgetown has +75000 odds to shock the world. While it's unlikely Cooley will lead the Hoyas to their first National Championship since Patrick Ewing dominated the paint, they appear slightly undervalued in the betting market.
We could see Georgetown's title odds rise, with Cooley's new foundation coming together faster than expected. It probably won't happen this season, but Georgetown's undoubtedly on the up and up.
Stanford Cardinal (+50000); UAB Blazers (+50000)
