College basketball odds: Breaking down the contenders to win the 2023 NCAA Tournament by tiers

cbssports.com

28 October 2022

College basketball odds: Breaking down the contenders to win the 2023 NCAA Tournament by tiers

A new college basketball season tips off on Monday, Nov. 7, and thus begins the race to Houston for the 2023 Final Four where a national champion will be crowned. Kansas has a shot at becoming the first repeat champion since Florida in 2006-07, but there are 362 other Division I teams who will be in pursuit of the trophy as well.

From a betting standpoint, the breadth of college basketball brings unique opportunities to find value. Because of the unpredictability of March Madness and its single-elimination bracket, college basketball is structured to produce unexpected champions. Plenty of No. 1 seeds have won it all, but No. 7 seed UConn (2014), No. 6 seed Kansas (1988) and No. 8 seed Villanova (1985) have shown how teams can surprise us and win championships.

Recent titles for Baylor (2021) and Virginia (2019) also prove how conditions in the sport are ripe for programs to break through for their first titles. So as the new season approaches, let's look at the college basketball national championship odds sheet and break it down by contender tiers.

Tier 1: Steady as ever

Team: North Carolina (8-1), Kentucky (9-1), Baylor (18-1), Kansas (20-1)

You know what to expect from these guys. All have won national titles at some point in the past 12 years, and all have longstanding continuity within their coaching staffs. Though it's just Hubert Davis' second season as North Carolina's head coach, he was on staff for a decade under Roy Williams and part of the 2017 national title team. That experience appeared to serve him well as he rallied the Tar Heels and led them on a run to the national title game in his first season.

Even Kansas, which replaces stars like Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun from its national championship run, is a trusty pick. The Jayhawks have never missed an NCAA Tournament under 20th-year coach Bill Self and have never been worse than a No. 4 seed in his tenure. If you're holding a card with 20-1 odds on the Jayhawks and they wind up as a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the 2023 Big Dance, you'll be feeling good

Tier 2: Breakthrough candidates

Teams: Gonzaga (9-1), Houston (12-1), UCLA (12-1)

Each of these three have been to Final Fours over the past two seasons but didn't break through and win it all. Gonzaga and Houston have never won national titles, and the last time UCLA cut down the nets came in 1995. But all three are in excellent shape entering the season with the coaches and rosters to compete for it all.

Of the trio, UCLA is arguably the team with the highest upside. The Bruins bring in five-star prospects Amari Bailey and Adem Bona to pair with the elite duo of Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. If one or both freshmen hit and Jaylen Clark takes a step forward, this UCLA team will be better than the Sweet 16 and Final Four teams that preceded it the past two seasons.

Tier 3: Betting on talent

Odds: Arkansas (15-1), Duke (18-1)

If raw talent decided the national champion, these two would be excellent picks. Duke's seven-man freshmen class ranked No. 1 in the 247Sports Team Rankings, and Arkansas' six-man group ranked No. 2. Both programs are oozing with potential future NBA Draft picks and the talent to win it all. Both are also incredibly young and sorely lacking in returning production; most of the complementary pieces surrounding the elite freshmen in both rotations will be transfers.

Arkansas coach Eric Musselman is used to blending new players together and creating winning teams. Jon Scheyer is not. Duke's first-year coach is just 35 years old and tasked with following the legendary Mike Krzyzewski. Having a handful of veterans in the rotation would be nice. Instead, Scheyer has a blank canvas on which he can begin painting his own legacy. Point guard Jeremy Roach returns, but everyone else in this rotation will be new. Though it may not always be pretty for Arkansas and Duke as they acclimate their freshmen to the college game, they should only improve as the season progresses.

Tier 4: Leap of faith

Teams: Arizona (22-1), Tennessee (30-1), Creighton (30-1), Indiana (30-1)

Can Arizona go deeper than the Sweet 16 this season after losing three NBA Draft picks? Do we trust Rick Barnes to get past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament for just the second time since 2008? If you can get past these types of roadblocks, then these teams in the Leap of Faith category are worth a look.

Creighton is the preseason pick to win the Big East, but the BlueJays haven't been to an Elite Eight since 1941. Indiana has the historical pedigree and an excellent roster, but the Hoosiers haven't made an Elite Eight since 2002. They also have a second-year coach in Mike Woodson who is still adjusting to college basketball after spending four decades as an NBA player and coach. There's a lot to like about these four, but it's easy to find their flaws as well.

Tier 5: Value plays

Teams: UConn (60-1), Virginia (60-1), Florida State (80-1)

Virginia has already moved up the odds sheet from 80-1 after landing at third in the ACC preseason poll and coming in at No. 5 in Ken Pomeroy's first rankings at kenpom.com. But there is still good value in the Cavaliers. As for UConn, the Huskies have the Big East Preseason Player of the Year in Adama Sanogo and the motivation of consecutive first-round NCAA Tournament losses. Florida State has a potential first-round pick in Matthew Cleveland and a roster ready to bounce back from last season's injury-plagued fiasco. All are worth a flyer at these prices.

Tier 6: Longshots

Teams: Iowa (200-1), Notre Dame (250-1), Stanford (300-1)

All three have potential first-round NBA Draft picks, and both Iowa and Notre Dame are returning multiple key contributors from NCAA Tournament teams. Notre Dame stands out as a particularly great value since the Fighting Irish are coming off a second-round NCAA Tournament appearance. Though they lose double-digit scorers Blake Wesley and Paul Atkinson, five-star freshman guard JJ Starling is poised to be a star, and this rotation will otherwise be full of super seniors.