College Basketball Odds: Houston vs. Oregon prediction, odds

college basketball odds series for our Houston Oregon prediction and pick.

The Oregon Ducks had a really bad start to their season last autumn. In November of last season — nearly 12 months to the day of this reunion — Oregon lost to Houston, 78-49. The Ducks committed 19 turnovers. They shot only 26 percent from 3-point range. They were hammered by the Cougars, who swamped them. At the time, given that Houston was coming off a Final Four season, the result seemed to indicate a lot more about Houston than Oregon. To be sure, Houston did turn out to be very, very good last season, and that was without star player Marcus Sasser. Houston got to the Elite Eight without its best player. That’s how deep and resourceful the Cougars were. However, the result also showed that Oregon was nowhere close to ready to compete with the nation’s elite. We didn’t expect it, but it turned out to be true: Oregon just wasn’t very good last season. That Houston loss might have been more indicative of the Ducks’ struggles than anyone realized at the time.

Oregon had a brief run in the middle of the Pac-12 season when it got hot and seemed to be playing its way into the NCAA Tournament. It won at UCLA and USC and was gathering steam, but just when it appeared that the Ducks had figured everything out, they lost the plot once again. They suffered a staggering, shocking home-court loss to Cal and endured some other highly improbable losses. The Ducks missed the NCAA Tournament in 2022, which seemed unthinkable heading into last season.

The Houston loss was not an outlier; it was an indicator.

Dana Altman has to start over this season, and the early returns have not been encouraging. Oregon lost at home to UC Irvine, exactly the kind of puzzling loss which was commonplace last season. Star guard Will Richardson isn’t playing like a star. He needs to be good in order for this team to be good. The supporting cast has to be a lot more dynamic than it has been up to this point. There is a lot for Altman to fix, and Houston is not a good team to run up against if you have a lot to fix.

The Cougars have dominated their opponents in the early weeks of the season. Those opponents have not been elite opponents — it’s not as though Houston is playing Arkansas or Kansas or Michigan State — but Houston is beating them by 30, 35, 40 points. Coach Kelvin Sampson has his team playing fantastic defense. This is the advantage Houston has over most of its opponents: It will work harder than the opposition and will give away fewer points and possessions. This is the challenge Oregon and Altman are facing in this game.

College Basketball Odds: Houston-Oregon Odds

Houston Cougars: -6.5 (-110)

Oregon Ducks: +6.5 (-110)

Over: 131.5 (-106)

Under: 131.5 (-114)

Why Houston Could Cover the Spread

The Ducks missed the NCAA Tournament in March of 2022. They lost to UC Irvine in this season. They do not appear ready to handle what’s coming at them. Houston’s defense is more than a handful for any opponent. Oregon has to be sharp to defeat UH, and the Ducks don’t look very imposing right now.

Why Oregon Could Cover the Spread

The Ducks get up for elite teams at home. When Arizona, UCLA, and other high-end teams go up to Eugene, they regularly get a stiff test and they don’t generally find it easy to win. Oregon can certainly protect its homecourt and provide a vigorous effort which will bother Houston in its halfcourt offense.

Final Houston-Oregon Prediction & Pick

Oregon just doesn’t inspire confidence. It could easily play well at home, and it wouldn’t be that much of a surprise, but the Ducks haven’t been performing up to their standards while Houston looks like the best team in the country. Take Houston.

Final Houston-Oregon Prediction & Pick: Houston -6.5