College football best bets for Week 1: How to pick spots while the new clock rules shake things up

Did it feel good to be back or what? Week 0 of the college football season wasn’t the greatest of slates, but when it comes to betting on college football, we don’t discriminate on the quality of the teams playing. Now our attention turns to the first full slate of the season, the real start of college football. Week 1 will feature 41 games on the FBS vs. FBS slate and a handful of those matchups are going to be must-watch television.

As for best bets this week, Week 1 is always tough because the market has been open for quite some time during the summer and a lot of numbers have come and gone. In my opinion, there is less value than what we will see over the next month or so. Factor in a more cautious approach with coaching changes and what not and the fact that I have no idea how much the new clock rules will truly change totals — it seems like it might be a lot — and it’s going to be a smaller than normal card.

Last week’s record: 1-0, +1.00 units, 100% ROI

FIU was our winner last week and boy was it gross. They had four passing yards with about a minute or two remaining and somehow had a lead. Either way, it was a wire-to-wire winner and I’ll take that every time, even if it may have been a little lucky. We will take those when we can get them.

Week 1 college football best bets

Please make sure to shop around at various sportsbooks for the best possible number. Over the course of the season, a half point here or five cents there will add up.

Worst line to bet is the final number that I would make a bet at. For example, if I bet under 49.5 and the “worst line to bet” is 49 -110, I would not make that bet at 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.

All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. for live odds.

Kent State at UCF under 57.5 (-110) (to win 0.5 units)

I’m not entirely sure what pace Kent State will play at under new head coach Kenni Burns. Burns comes from Minnesota (slow-paced) while offensive coordinator Andrew Sowder has been on Kent State’s staff for a few years (fast-paced). I’m thinking it will be somewhere in the middle. I expect a heavy dosage of running by the Golden Flash and with the new clock rules in college football, the clock should be running for a decent chunk of this game. I’m a little nervous that UCF could name its score here, but with Boise State on deck, maybe the Golden Knights don’t want to push things too hard.

Worst line to bet: Under 56 (-110)

Fresno State +4 (-110) at Purdue

I think Purdue could be in for a little bit of a transition to start the season as head coach Jeff Brohm and quarterback Aidan O’Connell have moved on. Fresno State is a tough first game for rookie head coach Ryan Walters. I was a huge fan of O’Connell and I think the Purdue offense could see some early season regression because of it. Hudson Card and Graham Harrell should be able to put up some numbers in the Air Raid system, but Fresno has a decent defense that should give the Boilermakers some problems in the season opener.

Worst line to bet: Fresno State +3.5 (-110)

South Florida +11.5 (-110) at Western Kentucky

I think USF comes into the season a little underrated. The Bulls were really bad last season, but hiring Alex Golesh (Tennessee’s offensive coordinator) could pay off immediate dividends. He learned from one of the best offensive minds the last few years under Josh Heupel and was part of Matt Campbell’s Toledo and Iowa State staffs before that. I also think he made a solid hire in Todd Orlando at defensive coordinator. We know that good coaching staffs can make a huge impact in Year 1 and I’m thinking the market will be slow to adjust on USF.

Worst line to bet: USF +11 (-110)

Cal -6.5 (-110) at North Texas

My numbers make this north of eight so I’m going to take a stab on this before it flips back to a full touchdown. Cal hasn’t been able to field a good offense in ages, but I think new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital should be a net positive. The defense has never been an issue so I’m not concerned there. North Texas should have one of the worst defenses in college football so Spavital’s group should be able to find some success this week.

Worst line to bet: Cal -6.5 (-115)

Lines to watch

Stanford at Hawaii

I’m mad at myself for passing on Hawaii during Week 0 at Vanderbilt. That performance (a 35-28 loss) has pushed this line down to near a field goal when it was a full touchdown last week. I think Hawaii is underrated in the market right now and I think Stanford could be in for a transition period personnel-wise. If Stanford gets some pushback, I think Hawaii is worth a play. They can win this game outright.

Number to bet if it becomes available: Hawaii +4.5 (-110)

Toledo at Illinois

I think Illinois’ defensive line could cause a lot of problems for Toledo’s offensive line, but Illinois did lose a lot of talent from last year’s squad while Toledo returns a good bit of production so that’s probably where this edge is mostly coming from. I’m pretty high on Toledo so I’m going to take a stab here if I can get double-digits. Remember, it’s a long season and there is no reason to force a play if the number isn’t there.

Number to bet if it becomes available: Toledo +10 (-110)

West Virginia at Penn State

I think both of these teams are going to run the ball a ton which should cause for a limited possession game. I don’t think Penn State will have too many issues moving the ball on West Virginia’s defense, but I also think West Virginia’s offensive line could hold up against Penn State’s front. A lot of under money has come on this game over the past few weeks which confirms my theory on a possibly shorter possession game. With that, 21 points is a lot to cover. Maybe this ends up like Notre Dame and Navy, but I’m willing to back the Mountaineers against a Penn State team that my model really likes.

Number to bet if it becomes available: West Virginia +21 (-110)