College football best bets: How to bet the New Year’s Six bowl games

Bowl season is winding down, with only a few non-College Football Playoff games remaining over the next couple of days. Here’s a look at how I think some of those will play out.

All times Eastern. All point spreads and totals taken Saturday from DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Orange Bowl

No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 6 Georgia

I mean …

Florida State will now be without its starting QB, backup QB, star RB, top-two WRs, star TE, first round EDGE and its best LB in the Orange Bowl.

— Max Chadwick (@MaxChadwickCFB) December 25, 2023

We can debate all day about whether unbeaten Florida State got jobbed out of a spot in the College Football Playoff, but the fact remains that a worrying amount of Seminoles talent from the regular season will not be on the field against the Bulldogs. An only partial list includes: first- and second-string quarterbacks Jordan Travis and Tate Rodemaker (who threw all 25 of Florida State’s touchdown passes this season, with Travis adding seven rushing touchdowns), running back Trey Benson (5.8 yards per carry, 14 rushing touchdowns), wide receivers Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman (91 catches, 13 for touchdowns), tight end Jaheim Bell (39 catches, two scores) and defensive end Jared Verse (first-team all-ACC, team-high nine sacks).

Brock Glenn will start at quarterback for the Seminoles, just as he did in the ACC championship game against Louisville. Florida State averaged only 3.4 yards per play in that game, with Glenn passing for only 55 yards, and that was with most of FSU’s talent still on the field. Now all those players are gone, and you’re asking this team to move the ball against a Georgia defense that hasn’t lost all that much to transfers and opt-outs (at least compared with other teams)? Yikes.

The pick: Florida State team total under 12.5 points.

Fiesta Bowl

No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 23 Liberty

The Flames have made a remarkable rise to a New Year’s Six bowl game in just their sixth season as a full-fledged Football Bowl Subdivision program, but I have a feeling this could get ugly. Liberty ranked only 51st nationally in SP+ defense, a measure of overall efficiency, despite playing the following schedule of offensive lightweights: Bowling Green (No. 86 in SP+ offense), New Mexico State (No. 75), Buffalo (No. 125), Florida International (No. 121), Sam Houston (No. 120), Jacksonville State (No. 77), Middle Tennessee (No. 92), Western Kentucky (No. 55), Louisiana Tech (No. 87), Old Dominion (No. 97), Massachusetts (No. 99) and UTEP (No. 116).

Now Liberty, which hasn’t played a top-50 offense all season yet was still kind of middling on defense, must get in front of a Ducks team that leads the nation in SP+ offense and will have most of the players that got them to that point — namely quarterback Bo Nix (No. 3 in the Heisman voting) and running back Bucky Irving (6.2 yards per carry) — on the field? The Flames also will be without transfer cornerback Preston Hodge, who had the team’s second-best Pro Football Focus pass-coverage grade. That’s far from ideal against an Oregon offense than ranked No. 2 in passing yards per game (342.8).

I repeat: yikes.

The pick: Oregon team total over 42.5 points.

Citrus Bowl

Iowa vs. Tennessee

The Volunteers’ offense took a hit Wednesday when quarterback Joe Milton announced he’s opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Heralded recruit Nico Iamaleava — who has appeared in mop-up duty in four Tennessee blowout victories this season — will make his first career start against an Iowa defense that ranks third nationally in expected points allowed per play and ninth in success rate. The Hawkeyes also haven’t lost many players since the end of the season beyond cornerback Cooper DeJean, who suffered a season-ending broken fibula during a late-season practice.

Tennessee also will be without running back Jaylen Wright, the Vols’ first 1,000-yard rusher since 2015. He also opted out ahead of the NFL draft.

Yes, we all know Iowa’s offense is dreadful (No. 131 in both EPA/play and success rate, and there are only 133 FBS teams). But seven members of Tennessee’s secondary have left via the transfer portal, including three starters.

Even with all these departures, the Vols are nearly a touchdown favorite. SP+ projects a five-point Tennessee win, and that’s including the statistics amassed by all the departed players. I think the Hawkeyes’ defense can keep this one close, despite Iowa’s noted offensive deficiencies.