College Football Betting Guide: Week 11

Matt has only taken one week off this week, which is why he has 9 weeks worth of picks in 10 weeks. But ALL HE DOES IS DROP WINNERS, PEOPLE. If you’ve followed him all year, $25 dollars on each game, you’d be up $175 right now. Get your picks here, people!

Matt’s plays (YTD 17-10):

UCF vs. Tulane (TUL -1.5; O/U 54.5):

This should be one of the better non power 5 matchups of the season and offers a fun and intriguing stylistic matchup. UCF plays classic Gus Malzhan football, and they run zone schemes out of shotgun all game long. John Rhys Plumlee is an incredible athlete at QB, and he commands the 10 ranked offense in both total and rushing yards per game. They play quickly and pose some serious threats with their skill position players. However, Rhys Plumlee throwing the ball is a scary proposition, and they need success in the run game in order to set up play action passes.

On the other hand, Tulane defensively is a solid squad and are 13 in the country in scoring defense (19.0 ppg allowed). Their most impressive performance of the season was earlier this year when they only gave up 10 points to K-State in Manhattan. Tulane also gives up only 3.7 yards per carry on the season. Offensively the Green Wave solid as well. They are one of the best teams in the country of taking care of the football (only 8 giveaways in 9 games this year). QB Michael Pratt is good enough to make plays when needed. I also think Willie Fritz is one of the best gameday coaches in the country. I see Tulane having success mitigating the ground game of the Knights. As I mentioned earlier, if John Rhys Plumlee gets put into a spot where he needs to win the game with his arm, that would be a bleak outlook for UCF. I think Tulane is good enough to put the UCF offense in predictable passing situatuins. At home as a short favorite, I love Green Wave this week.

Pick: Tulane -1.5

Washington vs. Oregon (UO -13; O/U 72.5):

Coming off a thrashing of our beloved Buffs, playoff hopeful Oregon hosts Washington in what could be a shootout. Both teams love to play offense, and not much defense. However, while Oregon’s defense is not great, Washington’s has been downright bad especially against the pass. Oregon bolsters one of the most balanced and potent offensive attacks in the country, and I think all CU fans know what Bo Nix is capable of after last week’s game. I don’t see much resistance from the Huskies against Oregon. The Ducks bolster some talent on defense and have seemingly improved as the season has progressed. Michael Penix will be chucking all over the field, but he has been prone to some turnovers this year. I’m betting Oregon has enough chops defensively to make stops and hold the Huskies to field goals in order to win by over 2 touchdowns. It’s a big number, but I’ll take Oregon in this spot (I’m leaning over too if you’re into taking overs in the 70’s).

Pick: Oregon -13

TCU vs. Texas (UT -7; O/U 65):

This spread is a tricky one. Why is the third ranked team in the country taking a touchdown against a Texas team that has been inconsistent at best this year? I don’t like playing games with spreads like that, so let’s move on to the total in this game. The TCU offense has scored 34 points or more in every single game they have played this year and are averaging 41.5 points per game in conference play. On defense they have been susceptible to giving up chunk plays and points plenty. The Horned Frogs defense has given up more than 30 points or more against 4 of the 6 Big 12 games they’ve played this year.

Meanwhile, save their matchup against Iowa State in Ames, Texas has scored 34 points or greater in every one of their conference games this year. Ewers has been a little inconsistent at QB this year, but he should have no issue putting up numbers this Saturday. Combine that with Texas’ lethal ground game I see Texas scoring aplenty. There’s no reason to expect that TCU’s offensive trends should change, either against a Texas defense which has allowed 37 points to Texas Tech and 41 points to Oklahoma St. I was shocked to see this total below 70. Take the over and enjoy winning money while watching a game that looks to be one of the more exciting games of the season.

Pick: Over 65

Bonus pick:

Colorado vs. USC (USC -34.5; O/U 66):

I’m 3-0 in my bonus picks fading CU so far this year, so I figure I’ll keep finding angles to win money at their expense. I see USC running laps around CU early in the game, and then giving some of their backups a chance to play late with two ranked teams in Notre Dame and UCLA on the horizon for them. With that said, the first half line of 21.5 is asking for trouble. So, I’ll look at the first half over of 35.5. USC may get there on their own, but I think the Buffs can actually score some points against this USC team which gave up 5 TD’s to Cal last week. The two teams should be able to combine for over 5 touchdowns in the first half tonight.