College football predictions: Picks, tips for Week 12
We’re into the home stretch of the 2023 college football season, and the College Football Playoff picture is becoming clearer with only two regular season games remaining.
Only five undefeated Power Five teams remain in Georgia, Michigan, Florida State and Washington, and two of those teams will put their undefeated records on the line this week against ranked opponents.
Below are my top betting picks for this week’s slate of games headlined by No. 1 Georgia traveling to face No. 18 Tennessee and No. 5 Washington also on the road against No. 11 Oregon State.
(Lines from Caesars Sportsbook, official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, as of Friday, Nov. 17)
Game of the Week
No. 1 Georgia at No. 18 Tennessee
Line: Georgia (-10, -420) at Tennessee (+320), 59 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 18 at 2:30 p.m. (CBS)
Analysis: Georgia was able to clinch their spot in the SEC Championship Game last week with a dominant victory over Ole Miss, which eases the pressure on them heading to Knoxville this week.
Tennessee is coming off a brutal defeat to Missouri that appears to have ended their chances at a major bowl appearance, but the Vols could rejoin that conversation by upsetting the Bulldogs, although they appear overmatched on both sides of the ball.
I’ll take the Vols as a home dog though with the points being that they should be able to keep things close since the Bulldogs clinched their SEC title game spot and haven’t fared very well against the spread this season.
The pick: Georgia -10
SEC best bets
Florida at No. 9 Missouri
Line: Florida (+11, +328) at Missouri (-430), 58.5 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 18 at 6:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Analysis: Missouri’s offense is firing on all cylinders and has been elite all season, and they’re in line for another strong performance against a Florida team that will likely force them to keep their foot on the gas.
The Gators haven’t had the season they were hoping in year two under Billy Napier, but their offense has enough talented playmakers to where they should be able to keep this one interesting even though the Tigers look better on paper and have the much better regular season resume.
I don’t feel comfortable taking either side on the spread since I don’t feel good about betting against a red-hot Tigers team even though I see the Gators keeping it close, but I feel confident in the over since both team’s offenses are better than their defenses.
The pick: OVER 58.5
Kentucky at South Carolina
Line: Kentucky (-1, -120) at South Carolina (+100), 53.5 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 18 at 6:30 p.m. (SECN)
Analysis: Both Kentucky and South Carolina have struggled during SEC play, but they have an opportunity to get back in the win column and gain momentum heading into next season.
The Gamecocks have been the most disappointing of the two, but they’ve got a strong passing game with Spencer Rattler at quarterback, which could set up well for them against a Wildcats defense that struggles against the pass.
While the Wildcats are the more well-rounded team, I’ll lean toward the home dog here, especially with Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer looking to prove himself being that he’s linked to the Mississippi State job.
The pick: South Carolina money line
Georgia State at No. 18 LSU
Line: Georgia State (+31.5, +2500) at LSU (-25000), 72.5 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 18 at 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
Analysis: LSU’s offense is so dynamic that they’d likely put up 70 or more points if they wanted to against a dreadful Georgia State defense, but the question always comes up of how a team will handle playing time while having a huge lead.
Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels put up over 600 yards as a passer and a runner last week, and while he likely won’t repeat those numbers being that the Tigers won’t need him to, he might get to play longer than usual since he’s still very much in the mix for the Heisman Trophy.
It’s tough to feel too confident laying over 30 points in any game, but I’ll take the Tigers being that Daniels is on a mission to prove that he’s the best player in the nation.
The pick: LSU -31.5
Other plays
No. 24 Tulane at Florida Atlantic
Line: Tulane (-9.5, -355) at FAU (+278), 46.5 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 18 at 11 a.m. (ESPN Plus)
Analysis: Tulane has somehow won eight straight games despite failing to cover the spread in six of those eight, and a similar script could be the cards this week as they’re favored yet again against FAU.
The Green Wave have been favored in every game this season except for Week 2 against Ole Miss, and while they appear to be the much better team on paper than the Owls, they’ll be on the road and have been in a scoring rut the past two weeks despite facing teams they were expected to cruise past.
While it’s tempting to follow the trend and fade the Green Wave as favorites, I’ll take the under instead since the Wave defense has been solid and should be able to dominate a struggling Owls offense.
The pick: Under 46.5
No. 5 Washington at No. 11 Oregon State
Line: Washington (+2.5, +115) at Oregon State (-135), 61.5 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 18 at 6:30 p.m. (ABC)
Analysis: Many are viewing this as the national game of the week, which is fair considering Oregon State has played well as of late and the fact that Washington is still undefeated with Heisman candidate Michael Penix.
The Beavers still have an outside shot of making the Pac 12 Championship Game and have lived up to their reputation of being excellent at home, which isn't ideal for the Huskies even though they’ve got the better regular season resume and look better on paper with Penix leading the way.
While the Huskies have held their own on the road this season, they tend to play at their best at home, so I’ll ride with the Beavers at home being that the recent trends are on their side.
