College football betting preview: Coach Prime and Colorado roll again

It was another 2-2 week for this column, after Alabama and Texas exploded for 29 fourth-quarter points to doom the under while Texas San Antonio could only manage a seven-point win over Texas State, failing to cover the number. But Coastal Carolina and Eastern Michigan got us to the window, and we’re now 4-4 on the season. Could be better, could be worse.

This column will give out four picks per week: the game of the week, a favorite, an underdog and a wild card, which can be anything (another favorite or underdog in a game that might be flying under the radar, or a total, for instance). Hopefully we’ll all be in good shape by the time the clock hits zero at the national championship game in Houston on Jan. 8.

All spreads were taken Wednesday from DraftKings Sportsbook. All times Eastern.

No. 18 Colorado (-23.5) vs. Colorado State

Saturday’s schedule is grim, with zero games featuring two ranked teams, so we’ll break down Coach Deion Sanders’s inaugural Rocky Mountain Showdown against Colorado State.

The Rams come into the game having already had their bye week and having already made a quarterback change despite playing only one game: Coach Jay Norvell announced this week that Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi will replace Clay Millen, who led the Football Bowl Subdivision in completion percentage last season (72 percent) but averaged only 4.6 yards per attempt in Colorado State’s 50-24 loss to Washington State on Sept. 2. Fowler-Nicolosi replaced Millen against the Cougars and threw two touchdown passes, though both came after the game was well out of hand.

But I’m less interested in the Rams’ offense than their defense, which allowed Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward to throw for 451 yards and three scores in the opener. Colorado State allowed eight scrimmage plays of at least 20 yards in its one game; 61 FBS teams have allowed fewer, and all of them have played at least two games. A couple of them have played three. Colorado’s offense has had 13 plays gain at least 20 yards, which is tied for 19th in the nation, and must be salivating at the thought of what quarterback Shedeur Sanders and wideouts Xavier Weaver and Travis Hunter can accomplish against this defense.

I’m not going to overthink this. The Colorado-Colorado State rivalry used to be competitive, with the Rams winning 7 of 16 meetings between 1999 and 2014. But Colorado State has been a bad program for years now and has lost its past four games against the Buffaloes by an average of 26 points (and some of those Colorado teams weren’t all that great, either). Coach Prime also doesn’t seem to be the type to ease off the throttle with games against Oregon and USC following this one, particularly in a rivalry game. The Buffs stampede.

Penn State (-14.5) at Illinois

No. 2 Michigan and No. 6 Ohio State may be ahead of the seventh-ranked Nittany Lions in the Associated Press top 25, but Penn State has looked more impressive in two season-opening wins than either of its two main Big Ten rivals. Quarterback Drew Allar seemingly has lived up to the hype by completing 43 of 55 passes for 529 yards and four touchdowns, running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton have combined to score five times, and the Nittany Lions’ defense leads the nation in overall success rate, rushing success rate and expected points added per passing play.

Illinois’ defense has fallen off a cliff after allowing only 4.39 yards per play last season, No. 2 nationally behind Iowa. In a narrow win over Toledo — the Fighting Illini needed a last-second field goal to win by two — and in a noncompetitive loss at Kansas, Illinois allowed 6.28 yards per play, which ranks No. 115 in the nation. The Fighting Illini also hasn’t corrected its penchant for committing penalties: A year after ranking 98th in penalty yards per game, Illinois ranks 123rd after two games, often allowing opposing offenses to extend drives or giving them free yardage.

On offense, quarterback Luke Altmyer leads Illinois in rushing, but 72 of his 139 yards came on one long touchdown run against Kansas. Again, the Nittany Lions’ defense is far superior to anything the Fighting Illini has seen. The offense might be, too, and this spread is curiously low, perhaps because Penn State has only played a down-in-the-dumps West Virginia team plus Delaware of the Football Championship Subdivision. I think the Nittany Lions roll here.

Northwestern (+18.5) at Duke

The results of games played in Week 1 are having too much of an effect on this spread.

Duke bullied Clemson — what a strange thing to type, but it’s true — in a 28-7 win to open the season. But a look at the box score shows that the margin perhaps should have been a little closer. The Tigers drove to at least the Duke 12-yard line four times but came away with only seven points after a missed field goal and two lost fumbles. Clemson also advanced past midfield on three other drives but scored zero points, missing another field goal and twice turning it over on downs. But all most fans will remember is that Duke clobbered mighty Clemson in a nationally televised game on Labor Day night, when there were no other games competing for viewers’ attention.

Likewise, Northwestern opened the season with a game against Rutgers played at noon on the Sunday of Labor Day weekend, with no other games to draw away viewers’ attention. So everyone who watched remembers the Wildcats coming out flat and the Scarlet Knights cruising to a 24-7 win. Even still, Northwestern held Rutgers to just 3.9 yards per play, which isn’t bad. The Wildcats then followed that up this past weekend with a thorough 38-7 win over UTEP despite being a small home underdog.

If Northwestern can get its rushing game going against a Duke defense that ranks 118th in success rate against the run, the Wildcats can work the clock — keeping dynamite Blue Devils quarterback Riley Leonard off the field — and stay within shouting distance here.

Florida International (+8.5) at Connecticut

3:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

What, exactly, have the Huskies done to deserve being this big of a favorite, especially when points are expected to be at a premium with a total of just 42.5? They’ve scored 14 points in each of their games this season, each of them a loss. Yes, U-Conn. starting quarterback Joe Fagnano got knocked out of this past weekend’s 35-14 loss at Georgia State in the second quarter with a season-ending shoulder injury. And yes, replacement Ta’Quan Roberson put up respectable numbers in relief, but his two touchdown passes came with the game well out of hand in the fourth quarter, when he also threw an interception. Roberson was Connecticut’s starter to begin the 2022 season but suffered a season-ending injury of his own on the Huskies’ second offensive drive of the season. Then he got beat out for the starting job by Fagnano this season. It doesn’t lead me to believe that an offense that ranks 104th in overall success rate and 113th in rushing success rate is going to improve all that much.

Florida International’s offense is equally dire, ranking 125th in success rate, though it did put up 46 points in this past weekend’s win over North Texas (expect a lot of teams to score a lot of points against North Texas this season). But running backs Kejon Owens and Shomari Lawrence combined to average 7.3 yards per carry and score four touchdowns against the Mean Green, and the Huskies are allowing five yards per carry (117th in the nation). The Panthers’ defense also has been at least a little respectable, particularly against the run, so it seems unlikely Connecticut will be able to get going in that department.

U-Conn. was a great story last season, reaching a bowl game after winning just four total games the previous four seasons. But I think this point spread is looking too much into last season’s accomplishments and too little into this season’s realities. The Panthers can keep this close.