Week 3 CFB Early Line Movement & Betting Analysis

Kansas State (-5.5) at Missouri - Opened Kansas State -1.5/50.5 Total | Now - 5.5/45.5

It was interesting to see this line open at Kansas State -1.5 Sunday morning, before rising up to -5.5 a few hours later. It’s easy to understand the spike, as Mizzou has four OL starters returning with 136 collective starts among them and still can’t manage to break 3.0 YPC against a G5 defense. Missouri entered Saturday’s contest against Middle Tennessee State as -21 favorites, but a clunky run game (46 carries, 112 yds, 2.4 YPC) behind Cody Schrader caused the Tigers to sweat out a 23-19 slog against the Blue Raiders. Their passing game used the dynamic Luther Burden as a one-man show, throwing 10 of their 19 passes to him for 8 receptions and 117 yards. The remaining non-RB pass catchers for Mizzou accrued only 39 yards against MTSU, highlighting potential depth issues in the WR corps.

Now they take on a Kansas State D that has a strong front-7 and currently ranks 7th nationally in success rate, though it’s admittedly a small sample size against lower level competition. KSU picked up right where they left off in 2022, soundly defeating Troy 42-13 in a battle of Big 12 and Sun Belt champions. Their experienced QB Will Howard (6’4/220) has NFL stature and a great feel for the pocket, as is evidenced by his superb 10.7% career pressure-to-sack rate. LT Cooper Beebe is an All-American who leads one of the top-20 OLs in the country and a punishing ground game with RBs Treshaun Ward/DJ Giddens. That’s vital because Kansas State is 14-3 against the spread when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2021 season, tied for third-best among Power 5 Teams. (average: .389)

Missouri QB Brady Cook faced a challenge from Miami transfer Jake Garcia all offseason, and faces a real test against the Kansas State defense after being protected by a 46-to-19 run/pass ratio last week against Middle Tennessee State. HC Eli Drinkwitz was hiding Cook because he likely understands that Missouri is 2-9 against the spread when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2021 season, tied for 11th-worst among Power 5 Teams. This escalating line reflects the uncertainty with Missouri and should continue to rise to around the key 7 number by gametime. I’d take KSU now before it gets higher.

Washington (-16) at Michigan State - Opened -11.5/61.5 | Now -16.5/57.5

This line held steady all offseason at Washington -11.5/61.5, but has now shifted dramatically to -16/57.5 in the wake of Mel Tucker’s departure and the overall lackluster state of the MSU roster. The lethal Huskies offense bulldozed G5 opponents Boise State and Tulsa, averaging 49.5 points and 565.5 total yards per game in the process. I see no path for this MSU secondary that allowed a 66% completion rate with an unsightly 26-to-2 TD/INT ratio last season to stave off the coming onslaught of points.

With that in mind, it’s clear that the market initiated the four-point drop in game total because the consensus does not believe MSU is not going to be able to challenge the Huskies’ 123rd ranked pass defense. That movement flies in the face of their 2022 battle when these teams piled up 67 points in a 39-28 barn burner. The question is can this Michigan State squad that put up a respectable 38 points per game versus relative tomato cans CMU and Richmond manage to score the requisite 17 points to offset Washington’s forthcoming 42+ point barrage?

Boise State managed to piece together 19 points against Washington, while Tulsa averaged 10. Last year, every FBS opponent Washington played except for Colorado scored at least 20 points against the Huskies. Huskies (-15.5/16) in a blowout is the obvious play and should be taken now as it will clear 17, but i’m going to sprinkle some Over 57.5 money out there too.

Northwestern (+20) at Duke - Opened -18/50.5 | Now -20/46.5

Northwestern was a disrespectful (-1) at home against a UTEP team that got run over by Jacksonville State in their FBS debut. Give credit where it’s due, as the Wildcats put forth a sound bell-to-bell performance by defeating the Miners 38-7. However that doesn’t overshadow their Week 1 struggles against Big Ten foe Rutgers who smothered them 24-7. NU could cobble together just 201 total yards, with a paltry 12 rushing yards on 22 carries against the Scarlet Knights, and now play HC Mike Elko’s Duke defense who just beat Clemson 28-7 with a 64% post game win expectancy.

Duke tore up the Wildcats for 221 rushing yards and 6.3 YPC in their 31-23 victory last year, while Northwestern threw for a season-high 435 yards on the Duke secondary. This year, Duke returns 18 overall starters including 8 from a D that ranked 17th in run defense. The Blue Devils bolstered their defensive backfield with Texas A&M transfer CB Myles Jones and Miami legacy transfer Al Blades, holding Clemson to 4.9 yards per pass attempt.

I don’t think Northwestern can clear 14 points against HC Elko’s well-schemed defense, so i like the Under 46.5 points here. However it should be noted that Northwestern is 1-13 (.067) against the spread when allowing 22 or more points since the 2021 season, which is the 10th-worst in FBS (average: .312).

Join in the college football conversation Saturdays at 11AM ET. From sides to totals to props, get ready for the weekend of college football with the NBC Sports College Football Betting Q&A.

BYU @ Arkansas (-10) - Opened -8/55 | Now -10/52

Kedon Slovis threw for 348 yards, 10.5 YPA and a 4-to-1 ratio against FCS Southern Utah last week, but don’t let that blip on the long, weathered career of Slovis to influence your opinion of his passing acumen. He owns a 64-to-65 career big time throw-to- turnover worthy play rate along with a 21-to-17 TD/INT ratio over the last two seasons. Following his ill-fated Pitt tenure, Slovis completed 20-of-33 passes for 145 yards and a 0-to-0 ratio against FCS-to-FBS convert Sam Houston State, whom BYU survived 14-0. It wasn’t like their run game was particularly effective either, averaging 3.3 YPC with 112 rush yards on the day.

Arkansas returns only four starters from 2022, but two of them are KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders. The good news is HC Sam Pittman appears to have replaced WR Matt Landers and WR Jadon Haselwood with up and coming wideouts Andrew Armstrong and Isaac TeSlaa, which has resulted in Arkansas going an easy 2-0 heading into the rematch of their 52-35 win over BYU last year. Sanders missed the last game with injury, his status should be closely monitored. Regardless, Arkansas rang up 644 yards on BYU last year and now get the Cougars in Fayetteville.

For me the key matchup is whether or not BYU’s defensive line can bring pressure and disrupt QB Jefferson’s rhythm. Brigham Young produced just 15 sacks in 13 games last season. In two games this year against a pair of teams that were in the FCS last season, they tallied two total sacks. That’s relevant because Arkansas is 10-2 against the spread when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season. An improved Razorbacks secondary, combined with a pass rush that put up an all-time school record 42 sacks last year will put the clamps on Slovis and bring home the -10 cover with an Over 52 lean.

Tennessee at Florida (+7) - Opened at +9.5/67.5 Total | Now +7.5/58.5

That Tennessee isn’t a two-touchdown favorite is an indictment on their sluggish start, as Florida is one of the most uninspiring Power 5 programs in the nation. Still when Joe Milton starts1-for-8 against a FCS team, the market gets understandably nervous and starts paring back like we see here , with the Total taking a beating going from 67.5-to-58.5 after the summer opening. Still, can’t back the Gators until they prove it to me, try to get Tennessee under 7.

Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight Tuesday through Saturday at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.

Colorado State vs. Colorado (-22) - Opened at -19.5/57.5 | Now -22.5/59.5

No secret why we saw this game rise by a field goal in early trading, as CU’s offense is primed to rip CSU’s D apart. Colorado State QB Clay Millen went down with injury, so backup Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi threw for 210 yards and two touchdowns in garbage time with the team already down 36-3. With CU likely to be up, big,I feel like 13 points out of CSU is achievable making this a Colorado/Over combo play for me.