College football upset alert: Expert picks for Week 8 underdogs with the best odds to win
In a week featuring four Top 25 matchups, college football fans and bettors are in for an action-packed Week 8 slate. The marquee matchup of the weekend pits the third-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (-4.5) against the seventh-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions in a Big Ten East showdown. Will James Franklin's crew pull off a shocker in Columbus? Two of our experts believe the Nittany Lions are a live underdog.
As a reminder of how the Underdog Challenge works, our experts pick three underdogs to win outright (not just cover the spread). They then earn points equal to the number of points those teams got on the spread if their upsets come to fruition.
Onto the upsets.
Mike DeCourcy, Senior writer
Miami (+3) over Clemson
I’ve been in a slump over the past two weeks, going 0-for-6 in underdog picks, and the reason isn’t hard to discern. I got carried away with West Virginia getting me a huge points haul in their upset of TCU, and I’ve been consumed with chasing another such outcome. Slow and steady wins the race, man. And so does relying on home dogs. Like the Canes.
Northwestern (+11.5) over Nebraska
Northwestern has many issues, and there are legions of teams in college football against which the Wildcats would quite logically be installed as a double-digit dog. But Nebraska doesn’t seem like one. A single nice victory over Illinois does not erase all the Huskers are and all the Huskers have (not) done this season.
Penn State (+4.5) over Ohio State
The Buckeyes continue to improve as this season advances, but have they traveled far enough to beat this bunch of Lions? Which of the two first-time starters at quarterback – PSU’s Drew Allar or OSU’s Kyle McCord – is more ready for such a consequential game? It feels to me like Penn State’s passing attack will find ways to move the ball while their defense pressures McCord into a too-rough day.
Bill Trocchi, Senior editor
Washington State (+20.5) over Oregon
Major letdown spot for Oregon after losing the Game of the Year in heartbreaking fashion to rival Washington. Last year after a similarly emotional loss to Washington, Oregon scored just 20 points in a win over Utah, the only time it scored less than 34 last year. Washington State is coming off a blowout loss to Arizona, but you’re never as bad as your worst game and never as good as your best game. Wazzu has a dangerous QB in Cam Ward. Ducks, beware!
Minnesota (+3.5) over Iowa
Iowa cannot keep winning like this. They just can’t. Leading receiver Erick All is out now. They are down to their second string QB and fourth-string tight end, which for Iowa is a big deal. Iowa is ranked last in the nation in offense. The last five years, teams that ranked last in the nation in offense have a combined record of 8-52. They just have to lose at some point, no?
Navy (+10.5) over Air Force
Air Force lost starting quarterback Zac Larrier to a knee injury against Wyoming. The undefeated Falcons will now go on the road after an emotional win and play a Commander-In-Chief trophy game without their leader. Navy lost this one 13-10 in Colorado Springs last year and is coming off two straight wins.
Bill Bender, Lead college football writer
Illinois (+2.5) over Wisconsin
Wisconsin will turn to Braedyn Locke at quarterback with Tanner Mordecai out, and it’s a tough matchup on the road against the Illini on the road. Illinois’ defense is rough against the run, but they are at home. Illinois caught Maryland on a hang-over after a loss last week. Illinois beat Wisconsin 34-10 last year. Bret Bielema makes it two in a row against his former team.
Oklahoma State (+3.5) over West Virginia
Oklahoma State has put together back-to-back victories against Kansas State and Kansas, and the difference has been turnover-free football. Alan Bowman has settled in for Mike Gundy, and the Cowboys have the look of a potential chaos team in the Big 12 race. Oklahoma State has won the last four meetings in Morgantown.
Boston College (+4.5) over Georgia Tech
Both teams have balanced offenses. The Yellow Jackets, however, have the worst statistical defense in the ACC. Georgia Tech is 0-2 ATS at home this season, and they have lost the last two meetings to BC. This is one of those ACC toss-up games that could have a wild finish. We'll take a chance on the Eagles.
Edward Sutelan, Digital content producer
Penn State (+4.5) over Ohio State
The Nittany Lions feel like they are built to beat the Buckeyes this year. Their defensive line is a rough matchup for a middle-of-the-road Ohio State offensive line, and their corners should have a chance to slow down the Buckeyes' exceptional receivers. Drew Allar gives the Nittany Lions the quarterback edge and Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton contribute to a balanced Penn State attack. This feels like Penn State's best shot in years to knock out the Buckeyes, and this motivated group has the talent needed to take out Ohio State on the road.
Duke (+14.5) over Florida State
It's time the Blue Devils start getting their credit. Even without Riley Leonard, Duke demolished a good NC State team 24-3. Florida State is coming off a massive win against Syracuse, but has still been inconsistent this season, with narrow wins over Boston College and Clemson. Duke will be the best defense Florida State has faced this season, and should really challenge Jordan Travis. If Leonard plays, he and Jordan Waters form a dangerous rushing offense that could be a bad matchup for a defense that has struggled at times to slow down other rushing teams.
Oklahoma State (+3.5) over West Virginia
The Cowboys went through a rough stretch where they lost to South Alabama and Iowa State. Since then, Oklahoma State appears to be back on track, with wins against Kansas State and Kansas. West Virginia, meanwhile, has largely been treading water lately, including falling to Houston in its last matchup. The Mountaineers could struggle with Alan Bowman, who looked settled in against Kansas, after they had issues slowing down Houston's Donovan Smith.
Nick Musial, Content producer
South Carolina (+7.5) over Missouri
Although South Carolina suffered a heartbreaking loss to Florida last week, the Spencer Rattler-led Gamecocks have enough offensive firepower to win in a shootout. It won't be easy to go into Faurot Field and leave with a "W," but a bend-but-don't-break effort by the Gamecocks' defense helps USC secure a road win.
Auburn (+6.5) over Ole Miss
We'll take a shot on the home underdogs to pull out a win in the Hugh Freeze Bowl. Auburn's offensive inconsistencies could spell trouble against an efficient Ole Miss offense, but in front of a jam-packed Jordan-Hare crowd, the Tigers find a way to manufacture ample scoring drives and give Freeze his first marquee win at his new school.
TCU (+6.5) over Kansas State
TCU quarterback Josh Hoover balled out in his first start after Chandler Morris' knee injury, and we believe he will keep his momentum rolling into the Little Apple. Kansas State quarterback Will Howard hasn't taken the step many thought he would in his first season as QB1, and TCU's ability to put scoreboard pressure on the Wildcats leads them to its second straight win.
