College football betting preview: How to bet Ohio State vs. Michigan

Last week’s picks went a lovely 3-1, with the only misfire coming on the Washington-Oregon State over (and that one looked great after a 32-point first half). I’m sitting on a 26-18 record heading into the final week of the regular season. Let’s end it in style.

This column will give out four picks per week: the game of the week, a favorite, an underdog and a wild card, which can be anything (another favorite or underdog in a game that might be flying under the radar or a total, for instance). Hopefully we’ll all be in good shape by the time the clock hits zero at the national championship game in Houston on Jan. 8.

All spreads were taken Tuesday from DraftKings Sportsbook. All times Eastern.

No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Michigan

Saturday at noon, Fox

The pick: under 46 points

The total for the Ohio State-Penn State game on Oct. 21 was 46½, and it stayed well under (as predicted). The total for the Michigan-Penn State game on Nov. 11 was 46, and it also stayed under (again as predicted). And now we get a familiar total for this last — and most crucial — game of the Big Ten East Division round robin.

I think you can see where this is headed.

Pick just about any defensive stat, and both of these teams excel: success rate (Michigan is ninth nationally, Ohio State is 10th); expected points allowed per play (Michigan ranks second, Ohio State ranks fifth); SP+ (Ohio State is No. 1, Michigan is No. 2); yards allowed per play (Ohio State is first, Michigan is fourth); points allowed per game (Michigan is No. 1, Ohio State is No. 2).

Likewise, neither offense approaches “Greatest Show on Turf” territory, particularly because of middling rushing games. Take away TreVeyon Henderson’s 75-yard touchdown run in the third quarter, and Ohio State averaged just 4.1 yards per carry against Minnesota, which has the nation’s 90th-ranked rushing defense in terms of success rate. Michigan has moved the ball a little better on the ground — it more or less won the game against Penn State’s exceptional rushing defense by handing the ball off over and over — but workhorse running back Blake Corum managed just 94 yards on 28 carries last weekend against a Maryland rushing defense that isn’t all that great, either.

Michigan has just 48 rushing plays that have gained at least 10 yards, tied for 85th in the country. Ohio State has just 40, which ranks 107th. Now these nonexplosive offenses have to take on two of the stodgiest defenses in the country, and the under is the play again.

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Houston at Central Florida

Saturday at noon, Fox Sports 1

The pick: Central Florida -13½

Houston will not be bowling after last weekend’s loss to Oklahoma State left it at 4-7, and the Cougars’ résumé suggests an even worse record. Just look at their four wins:

• Houston opened with a 17-14 win over Texas San Antonio despite getting outgained by 1.3 net yards per play, a sizable number in a one-game sample. The Cougars benefited from three Frank Harris interceptions — he has thrown just three picks since that game — and their postgame win expectancy was just 47 percent.
• The Cougars beat Sam Houston, which is 2-9.
• Houston needed a last-second Hail Mary to beat West Virginia by two on Oct. 12
• The Cougars needed an overtime two-point play to score their most recent win over 3-8 Baylor. Their postgame win expectancy: 42.8 percent.

Houston’s record doesn’t quite tell the story of just how bad the Cougars are on both sides of the ball (No. 82 nationally in offensive success rate, No. 113 in defensive success rate), and despite getting a recent vote of confidence from athletic department kingmaker Tilman Fertitta, Coach Dana Holgorsen’s seat is exceedingly warm, even more so after the Cougars surrendered a 23-9 second-quarter lead and lost by double digits against Oklahoma State.

At 5-6, UCF is playing for a bowl game, and the Golden Knights probably should have secured a berth last weekend in a 24-23 loss to Texas Tech. UCF got zero points on drives that reached the Texas Tech 2- and 15-yard lines, stalling on a turnover on downs and a missed field goal, and had the game-tying extra-point chance blocked in the fourth quarter. Running back RJ Harvey saw his 100-yard streak snapped at five games, but he could feast against a Houston rushing defense that is allowing 163.6 yards per game (No. 93 in the country) and gave up 164 rushing yards (6.6 yards per carry) to Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon II last weekend.

Add it all up, and I think UCF covers.

Jacksonville State at New Mexico State

Saturday at 4 p.m., ESPN Plus

The pick: Jacksonville State +1

New Mexico State is coming off a 31-10 shellacking of Auburn, perhaps the most stunning result of the season, and not only because the Aggies were 23½-point underdogs playing on the road against an SEC team. New Mexico State simply bullied its blue-blooded foe, outgaining the Tigers, 414-213, and holding the ball for 39 minutes.

Now the Aggies are laying one measly point against Jacksonville State, which on the surface would seem to be a little curious. If New Mexico State can clobber Auburn, shouldn’t it be a safe bet to do the same against the Gamecocks?

I would argue otherwise. Jacksonville State is 8-3, but because it’s still transitioning to the Football Bowl Subdivision, it’s ineligible to play in a bowl unless there aren’t enough six-win teams to fill all 82 slots. And while there’s a pretty good chance the Gamecocks will find their way into a bowl — only 67 teams have six wins entering the final weekend of the season — it’s far from guaranteed, meaning they might be treating this game against college football’s newly crowned upset kings as their bowl game.

There are other reasons to like Jacksonville State. For one, New Mexico State already has clinched a berth in the Conference USA title game and might be looking ahead to that Dec. 1 showdown with Liberty. For another, Jacksonville State has one of the country’s best rushing defenses, allowing only 2.68 yards per carry. (Only three teams — James Madison, UCLA and Penn State — are better.) New Mexico State runs the ball 55.8 percent of the time, and the Gamecocks can knock them off their game.

Jacksonville State also is a ground-heavy team, running the ball on 63.8 percent of its snaps (No. 5 nationally), and New Mexico State’s defense ranks 99th in success rate against the run despite playing almost all pass-heavy offenses. The one exception was a 33-17 loss to Liberty on Sept. 9, when the Flames — who run the ball even more than the Gamecocks — gained 250 rushing yards against the Aggies, the most they’ve given up on the ground this season.

I think the Gamecocks knock the Aggies down a peg or two.

Toledo at Central Michigan

Friday at noon, ESPNU

The pick: Central Michigan +10½

Last season, Toledo had wrapped up the Mid-American Conference West Division title in early November, rendering its final two regular season games mostly meaningless. Toledo lost both of them outright, both times as a double-digit favorite.

This season, the Rockets again clinched the MAC West in early November. And while they won the first game that followed, it wasn’t exactly pretty: As a 9½-point favorite Nov. 14, Toledo trailed 6-5 Bowling Green by 18 at halftime before turning it on in the second half to win by one on a 59-yard touchdown pass from DeQuan Finn to Jacquez Stuart with less than two minutes left.

Central Michigan is 5-6 and playing at home for bowl eligibility, and while the Chippewas have been on the extreme end of the luck spectrum — their win probability was less than 15 percent in two of their victories and less than 50 percent in another — I think we can back them to keep things close enough against a Toledo team that would rather not get anyone hurt ahead of the MAC title game against Miami (Ohio) on Dec. 2.

If anything, Central Michigan should be able to run the ball on a Toledo defense that ranks 85th in rushing success rate allowed and 88th in expected points allowed per rush. Over the past three games, Chippewas running back Marion Lukes is averaging 7.2 yards per carry. I’m thinking CMU can control the clock on the ground and keep the ball out of Finn’s hands to stay within covering distance.