College Football: Big Ten West Predictions & Picks

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25 August 2023

College Football: Big Ten West Predictions & Picks

We’re a week away from the start of the Big Ten season, which includes a West showdown between the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Nebraska Cornhuskers on Thursday night. In the final season of the East-West division alignment in the B1G, which West program takes advantage of the easier path to the conference championship game?

Below is a quick rundown of my B1G West predictions and OVER/UNDER choices for each team.

1. Iowa Hawkeyes

DraftKings sets the number at eight. Given their lineup, staunch defense, and revamped offense, I can’t envision them securing fewer than eight victories. Their offense is on the upswing. You read that right. QB Cade McNamara (15 TDs-6 INTs, 64.2% completion rate in 2021) is an undeniably competent quarterback, marking a vast leap from the prior season’s combined efforts (7 TDs-7 INTs-55%), presuming he’s healthy. Iowa’s offensive line should be the strongest it’s been in recent years, and Kaleb Johnson, coming off his impressive freshman year, is spearheading a revitalized running attack. The defense and special teams exude excellence. I’m betting on the OVER and the Hawkeyes to win the B1G West.

Iowa Preseason Pick

B1GGEST BET – OVER 8 (-150 @Westgate Superbook Best Price)

2. Wisconsin Badgers

The Badgers stand out as the West Division’s crown jewel in the eyes of many. There’s a new coach and system on both sides of the ball, but there is also talent. Talent that was already there and strategically added talent through the portal that fits the new schemes, including former Oklahoma and SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai. Look for Wisconsin to exact some payback in road games (revenge tour!) against Washington State, Purdue, Illinois, and Minnesota. All teams anticipated to decline after triumphing over the Badgers last season. With their schedule, Wisconsin is poised to claim nine to 10 victories, perhaps even 11 wins. If it isn’t evident, I’m backing the OVER.

Wisconsin Preseason Pick

B1GGER BET – OVER 8.5 (-144 @ FanDuel)

3. Minnesota Golden Gophers

While they’ve celebrated over nine victories thrice since 2019, it’s worth noting that bowl victories aren’t counted in our OVER/UNDER. They lost four games last season without Michigan or Ohio State on the schedule and a much easier non-conference (they play UNC instead of Colorado). Facing the toughest schedule under P.J. Fleck while suffering significant losses along the offensive line and at cornerback, I foresee the Gophers regressing, likely landing between six to seven wins in 2023. I’m firmly behind the UNDER at 7.5.

Minnesota Preseason Pick

B1GGER BET – UNDER 7.5 (-170 FanDuel)

4. Illinois Fighting Illini

Hypothetically, let’s credit Illinois with victories over teams such as Toledo, FAU, Nebraska, Indiana, and Northwestern (although an upset wouldn’t surprise me) and assume defeats against PSU, Wisky, and Iowa. Facing away games at KU, Maryland, Minnesota, and Purdue, can they clinch two more victories? It’s possible, but they lost a lot from last year’s team, including the QB. They had narrow defeats, but the defense is bound to wane, particularly after losing their stellar DC and four secondary members to the NFL. They were very bend-but-don’t-break last season (topping the charts with 21.4 yards per point allowed) and benefited from turnover luck. With the offense unlikely to fill the gap and a tougher docket, matching the prior season’s wins seems doubtful.

Illinois Preseason Pick

B1GGER BET – UNDER 6.5 (+110 @Caesars)

5. Nebraska Cornhuskers

It’s not that Coach Matt Rhule isn’t focused on victories in his inaugural year; it’s just not his prime agenda. His appointment was spot-on, given Nebraska’s dire need for a cultural reset. Rhule excels at institution-building, but patience is vital. His track records at Temple (two wins in Year 1) and Baylor (one win in Year 1) testify to this. His philosophy centers on offensive physicality and defensive dynamism. His vision will materialize, just not instantly. Expecting the Huskers to notch more victories isn’t far-fetched, but dreaming of anything beyond a bowl appearance (six wins) in Year 1 might be pushing it.

Nebraska Preseason Pick

B1GGER BET – UNDER 6.5 (-120 @Westgate Superbook)

6. Purdue Boilermakers

Despite significant departures via graduation and transfers, I anticipated a more pessimistic outlook for the 2023 Boilermakers. They are options at most positions, bar cornerback. They’ve evolved since Jeff Brohm’s arrival. Yes, they face challenging non-conference opponents (two ACC), but they’re beatable, and matchups against Michigan and OSU. I believe in Ryan Walters and QB Hudson Card enough to guide them to five wins.

Purdue Preseason Pick

B1G BET – OVER 4.5 (-140 @Westgate Superbook)

7. Northwestern Wildcats

A quintessential Northwestern team plays with passion, intelligence, and pride. Their -19 turnover differential last season (worst in college football) was uncharacteristic, and their offense’s inefficiency was glaring (most yards per point). Their knack for narrow defeats was also evident in several games last season. With all that’s gone on over the summer, my intuition tells me they’ll return with something to prove, minimize errors, and potentially score some upsets. I’m putting my chips on the OVER at 2.5, but at three, I’d pass.