Iowa Football: Hawkeyes catch a break in strength of schedule rankings

One of the top two conferences in college football, the Big Ten is going to give each team all they can handle week in and week out. Often times, it gives the top teams even more than they can handle at times. The conference schedule is always a gauntlet and will continue to be that way this year and moving forward with the additions of USC and UCLA.

With 2023 being the final year that the conference schedules will follow the template they have recently been on, some teams drew the short end of the stick this year. One of the teams not in that category is the Iowa Hawkeyes. They are one of the few teams that have a more forgiving Big Ten schedule on paper.

The strength of schedule can often flip on its head if a team unexpectedly gets hot, but often times can be a good barometer of what sort of success a team can have as we look ahead. Here is how the Big Ten’s strength of schedule rankings from CBS shook out. These rankings are from hardest strength of schedule to the easiest strength of schedule.

Well, this is quite a change of pace. I had Minnesota’s schedule ranked as the easiest in the league last year, and the Gophers have typically found themselves in the bottom third in the years we’ve been ranking schedules here. But this year? This year there’s not only a tough nonconference road game against North Carolina, but the Gophers get Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State from the East. The good news is only the game vs. Ohio State is on the road, but the bad news is you play both Michigan and Ohio State. Minnesota has won at least nine games in the last three full seasons. That will be a lot harder to do this year. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

If enjoying seeing Minnesota with a tough schedule is wrong, then I don’t want to be right.

The Golden Gophers have found success in the last half-decade but they welcome in a new quarterback and running back after multiple years of stability. Unlike the last few years, Minnesota has a much harder road to be a Big Ten West contender this year.

If I’m first-year coach Ryan Walters, I’m talking with my new boss about our nonconference scheduling. Purdue will open the season with Fresno State, at Virginia Tech and Syracuse. Fresno State has been one of the most consistent Group of Five programs, and those are two ACC schools. Sure, they aren’t Clemson and Florida State, but you probably don’t want to play two Power Five nonconference games every season. In Big Ten play, like Minnesota, Purdue gets Ohio State and Michigan, but it draws Indiana instead of Michigan State. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

After a run to the Big Ten Championship in 2022, a repeat looks like a longshot for the Boilermakers in 2023. One of the hardest non-conference schedules in the Big Ten isn’t ideal by any means.

Purdue’s defense should see an improvement, but the loss of offensive talent will make it hard for them to compete.

The first two games against Central Michigan and Richmond shouldn’t provide too much of a challenge, but Sparty will host Washington in its third game a year after losing to the Huskies 39-28 in Seattle. The Spartans get Michigan and Penn State at home in divisional play but will be on the road for Ohio State. The West draw isn’t impossible (at Iowa, at Minnesota, Nebraska), but it could’ve been easier. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

Being stuck in the Big Ten East pits Michigan State against the three big dogs and they won’t be favored in a single one of those games.

Mel Tucker could be in for another year where questions start bubbling up about just how good of an idea his long, lucrative contract still is.

If you have to play Ohio State, you may as well do it in Week 1 and rip the bandage off right away. I mean, at least it’s at home, but both Michigan and Penn State are on the road, so have fun with that. The nonconference games include a home date with Louisville and winnable games against Indiana State and Akron. The West draw of Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue isn’t awful, but if I’m a Hoosier fan, I’d rather get Illinois and Purdue at home. Overall, the Hoosiers will play seven home games this year and could be favored in only three of them. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

Ever since their shocking 2020 season amidst COVID where they saw great success, Indiana has continued to regress.

A bowl game would be a near miracle for the Hoosiers this year with their slate in the Big Ten East. Tom Allen has to start feeling pressure at some point, right?

Illinois was one of the league’s biggest surprises last season and faces a tough draw in 2023. The Illini open the year with a Toledo squad that has been one of the MAC’s best programs for years, and that road trip to Kansas probably looked like a better idea when it was scheduled. If Illinois wants to build on its success, a home game against Florida Atlantic shouldn’t be a problem. Big Ten play opens with Penn State at home, but the Illini avoid Michigan and Ohio State. The road schedule isn’t a monster, but the Illini could be underdogs in all five games. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

Credit where credit is due to Illinois for pulling off eight wins last season. They were a bit of a darling in college football that had fans pulling for them with their hard-nosed style.

The Illini will have a tough time repeating that, though. A step back in the win column is likely in order this year.

Rutgers is the second Big Ten team to schedule a nonconference game against Virginia Tech this year, though, unlike Purdue, the Knights are playing the Hokies at home. Other nonconference games against Temple and Wagner should be wins for Greg Schiano’s team. Also, with a season-opener at home against Northwestern, it’s not crazy to think the Knights could start 3-2 or even 4-1. However, wins are harder to find once they get into the meat of Big Ten play. Rutgers gets Wisconsin and Iowa from the West, and both are on the road. Their home B1G games are Northwestern, Michigan State, Ohio State and Maryland. How many of them are you confident Rutgers wins? – Fornelli, CBS Sports

Rutgers hasn’t done anything to hurt anyone in the Big Ten. In fact, Greg Schiano is likely building something that is seeing improvement out in Piscataway.

Unfortunately, improvement isn’t quite enough to get the Scarlet Knights to where they need to be. It could be another year of starting off hot only to run into a gauntlet.

As I mention every year, the top teams don’t usually rate highly because they don’t get to play themselves. However, adding a road game against Notre Dame to a schedule that also includes Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin boosts your overall SOS. Still, as difficult as things are, Ohio State would be favored in 11 of its 12 games. Also, with games against Indiana, Youngstown State and Western Kentucky to open the year, the Buckeyes should have any possible wrinkles ironed out before the intensity cranks up. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

Does it really matter how hard the strength of schedule is for Ohio State? Much like Michigan, they should be expected to be favorites up until their matchup in the season finale.

Ohio State does get daring and will take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend which bodes for a nice early-season contest but should favor the Buckeyes.

It’s not often you see a Power Five program open the season with consecutive road games, but that’s the position Nebraska’s put itself in for Matt Rhule’s first season. The Huskers open with Minnesota on the road before heading to Boulder to face Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes. The home slate begins with Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech before Michigan comes to town. The Wolverines are the only one of the East’s Big Three Nebraska has to play, as it also drew Michigan State and Maryland. Also, in Big Ten play, a road schedule of Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State and Wisconsin is favorable. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

Nebraska starts out with quite an interesting two games. Should they fall in one or both of those, Matt Rhule’s first year could get really intriguing in a hurry.

After that, their schedule does provide some breaks with a nice road slate. The Cornhuskers should have a  bowl game well within reach, but how good of a bowl game becomes their question.

The Wolverines played one of the easiest nonconference schedules in the country last season, and it worked out well, so why change things up? While it’s a little harder this year, I wouldn’t anticipate home games against East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green as major obstacles. Outside of the season finale against Ohio State, the Wolverines could be favored by at least three scores in every home game. They also get a favorable West draw with Nebraska, Minnesota and Purdue, though the Nebraska and Minnesota games are on the road in consecutive weeks. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

If the matchup versus Penn State was in Happy Valley, this schedule would rachet up a notch, but being at the Big House is a big-time break for Michigan.

The Wolverines’ season all rides on their season finale against Ohio State.

The nonconference schedule includes two gimme wins against UTEP and Howard, but the road trip to face a Duke team that beat the Wildcats last season in Evanston won’t be easy. The season-opener on the road against Rutgers could be its most winnable Big Ten game of the year. The Cats also get Penn State and Maryland from the East. Minnesota, Iowa and Purdue come to Evanston in division play, while the Cats are on the road for Nebraska, Wisconsin and Illinois. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

The good news for Northwestern is that their schedule should give them a chance to surpass last season’s win total of one. That said, Northwestern is in flux slightly and even with a schedule on the easier side, a bowl game may still be a tough task.

By no means is Pat Fitzgerald’s seat hot, nor likely ever will be, but one may begin to wonder how much he wants to stick around if 2023 is another grind to get to the end.

All things considered, the first schedule the Badgers will play under Luke Fickell will provide plenty of opportunities. The nonconference schedule isn’t soft, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see Wisconsin go 3-0 against Buffalo, at Washington State and Georgia Southern. Also, while the Badgers get Ohio State from the East, they get Rutgers and Indiana, which is the best you could hope for in that situation. Finally, a road schedule of Wazzu, Purdue, Illinois, Indiana and Minnesota won’t be easy, but I can see the Badgers winning three of those games. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

How does Luke Fickell do in his first year at the helm? The Big Ten schedule doesn’t give him a year to get his feet wet. He is right into the thick of it with a road slate that isn’t overly forgiving.

The Badgers do catch a nice break with their home contests being games they can handle. It will all come down to if their new-look offense takes off or not.

No disrespect to Penn State, but when you can avoid Michigan and Ohio State in your cross-divisional draw, you’ll take it every time. Iowa gets Penn State on the road to start Big Ten play, as well as Michigan State and Rutgers from the East. The nonconference schedule includes home dates with Utah State and Western Michigan and a rivalry game against Iowa State on the road. The Hawkeyes should be favored in every home game and possibly by double-digits in five of the seven games. However, the road slate is trickier with the Penn State game and trips to Wisconsin and Nebraska. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

Realistically, the Iowa Hawkeyes have a chance to be favored in nine contests this year. Their road slate is tough, but if there was ever a path to the Big Ten West, avoiding the Wolverines and Buckeyes is a good start.

Iowa definitely catches a break in the final year of the Big Ten’s current scheduling format. If the Hawkeyes can sweep at home in Kinnick, they may just need to steal one on the road to make a trip to Indianapolis.

Listen, you may want to critique Maryland’s nonconference schedule, but there’s no judgment on my end. You should lighten your nonconference load when you have to play Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State every season. Plus, while Towson and Charlotte are gimmes, the Virginia game would’ve looked a lot tougher at this time last year. Elsewhere, you have to feel good about getting Illinois, Northwestern and Nebraska from the West. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

I don’t think anyone expects Maryland to be in the conversation for the Big Ten East. That isn’t who they are. But an easy schedule bodes well for the Terrapins to head to a bowl game and with some confidence, potentially be a trap game for one of the East’s heavyweights.

I’m expecting a big season for the Nittany Lions, and this schedule is part of the thought process. The opener against West Virginia shouldn’t be a problem, and the other two nonconference opponents are Delaware and UMass. That’s basically playing two FCS schools. The conference slate isn’t easy, and in an odd quirk, Penn State’s first three B1G games are against West opponents (Illinois, Iowa and Northwestern). I’d expect the Nittany Lions to be favored in 10 of their 12 games at a minimum. – Fornelli, CBS Sports

Is this the year Penn State can finally unseat Michigan and Ohio State to claim the Big Ten East? The answer to that question sits on the shoulder of Drew Allar. The Sean Clifford era is over and there is more hype around Penn State than there has been in a while.

The defense is expected to once again be stout. With an easy schedule, the Nittany Lions have a real chance to be dangerous if their quarterback play takes the next step as many are hopeful for.

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