College football bowl season best bets: A play on the total in the Rose Bowl and more

The current landscape of the college football bowl season makes things really difficult for betting because there are coaching changes, players entering the transfer portal and players opting out. So while betting early is usually beneficial during the regular season, I think it’s quite the opposite during bowl season. There are games just a few days away that we still don’t know who is going to play and that makes it nearly impossible, in my mind, to place a bet. And with all of the variability of bowl season, I like to take it pretty cautiously compared to the regular season.

Let’s try to head into the offseason on a high note and put this lowly season behind us.

Season record: 44-58-2, -19.37 units, -17.2% ROI

Best bets for bowl season

Rutgers vs. Miami (Fla.) under 41.5 (-110)

My model has this game slated for less than 40 so anything above the key number of 41 is a solid bet, in my opinion. This isn’t a huge edge but the idea of Miami coming north to play in the (somewhat) cold weather makes me feel good about how this Rutgers defense matches up. The Rutgers offense is a dead under unit anyway so here’s to hoping both defenses show up and show out for us in Yankee Stadium.

Worst line to bet: Under 41 (-110)

Model projection: Miami 19.5, Rutgers 19.5

Kentucky +5 (-110) vs. Clemson

I am not a huge fan of betting Kentucky when they’re facing a team with a ton of talent, but, unfortunately, this number is just too high for what Clemson is going to be missing for this game. By my numbers, Kentucky should be at or near full strength while Clemson will be down five starters. My numbers have this around a field goal so if you’re getting anything at or north of +4 here, that’s a +EV bet.

Worst line to bet: Kentucky +4 (-110)

Model projection: Clemson 24.5, Kentucky 22.5

Missouri +3 (-105) vs. Ohio State

This is a tough bet for me to make, but I think there is considerable upside to possible opt-outs or limited snap counts for several players on Ohio State. If everyone were to opt out, I think Missouri should be favored in this game. If the opt outs don’t go our way, you’re getting a field goal with a full (good) Missouri team against a backup quarterback probably without the best wide receiver in college football. I’ll take that without hesitation.

Worst line to bet: Missouri +3 (-110)

Model projection: Missouri 25, Ohio State 22.5

Ole Miss vs. Penn State over 48.5 (-110)

I was half-temped to add Penn State against the spread, but they’re a little too pricey for me at the current number so instead of having action on the side and total, we settle for rooting for points. My model is not impressed with Ole Miss’s defense so Penn State should have an advantage on offense to put some points on the board. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss is an explosive offense going up against one of the best defenses in the country. Fortunately for them, Penn State lost their defensive coordinator and top edge rusher so that should help our cause.

Worst line to bet: Over 49 (-110)

Model projection: Penn State 28.3, Ole Miss 25.3

Alabama vs. Michigan over 44.5 (-110)

This is a little too low for my liking. I think both offenses will find some success here. Two of the best teams in college football can surely find their way into the 50s, right? I’ve long felt that Michigan is a bit of an over team when they play good opponents. They tend to really slow things down against bad teams and I don’t think they fit that exact profile in games where they need to score at will. Look at last year’s playoff game and even the Ohio State game at the end of the regular season went over. I think Jalen Milroe poses some problems for the Michigan defense and that will make Michigan speed things up on offense.

Worst line to bet: Over 44.5 (-110)

Model projection: Michigan 24.8, Alabama 22.8

Adding Wednesday night

Louisville -4.5 (-110) vs. USC

Worst line to bet: Louisville -5.5 (-110)

Model projection: Louisville 32.8, USC 26.3