College Football Odds: Bowling Green over/under win total prediction

Bowling Green football won six games last year on their way to a bowl game. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a Bowling Green football win total prediction and pick.

For Bowling Green, it was their first bowl game since the 2015 season when Dino Babers was the head coach. Since then the program struggled under Mike Jinks, but Scot Loeffler has begun to turn things around. In his first season in 2019, he won three games but then lost all five in the 2020 Covid-shortened season. They came back in 2021 to win four games and then won six last year. It is not that long ago that Bowling Green was a perennial contender in the MAC. They won five or more conference games five of seven years under Dave Clawson and Dino Babers.

The offense struggled last year. They averaged just 335 yards per game and heavily struggled to throw the ball. Enter Connor Bazelak. Bazelak started his career at Missouri before spending last season at Indiana. He has worked well in simple systems which Scot Loeffler will provide. Bazelak has thrown over 2300 yards in each of his last three seasons while throwing more touchdowns than interceptions. Bowling Green lost a lot of their top wide receivers, but they will have a major improvement at quarterback.

The offensive line last year was not great, but now most of them have experience and should be better. On the defensive side of the ball, they lost Karl Brooks and Walter Haire. Still, they have Anthony Hawkins in the middle of the line, and Demetrius Hardamon who will get pressure from the outside linebacker spot. Darren Anders and Brock Horne are back, making a great linebacking core. The defensive backs are solid, and if Bowling Green can generate pressure this year, the team's defense will improve tremendously.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Bowling Green Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 4.5 wins: -170

Under 4.5 wins: +138

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Why Bowling Green Can Win 4.5 Games 

The non-c0nference schedule is going to make it difficult for Bowling Green to get easy wins early on. First, they are at Liberty to open the season. Liberty is going to open as favorites against Bowling Green. While the Flames lose a lot, they have a solid defense that will be a difficult first test for an offense trying to break in new players. The Falcons will pick up their first win the following week against Eastern Illinois but then will travel to pick up a paycheck against Michigan.

Their first conference game of the season is next against Ohio. The show down between Bazelak and Kurtis Rourke should be solid, and this is a game Bowling Green can win. Still, even with a loss, they can pick up four more wins in conference play. That will be a must with the next week being at Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is going to be showing off a new and improved offense, scoring lots of points in this game. Most likely sitting 1-4 at this point, the Eagles will have to find wins in a hurry, and there are plenty of opportunities.

The next two games will require an upset. Miami (OH) and Buffalo are both on the road. But both teams do have significant weak spots. First, against Miami (OH), Bazelak may not be a top-end power five quarterback, but at the MAC level, he will shine and elevate the receivers around him. The Miami (OH) defense is good, but may not be good enough to stop him. Buffalo is in the same position, they will not have the defense to stop Bazelak. Even if it is 1-1 in these games, there are wins left.

Akron and Ball State will also provide opportunities for wins. Akron will be the more difficult of the games with DJ Irons at QB, but both have opportunities. Then there is Kent State. Kent State lost just about everyone, and this should be another win. With two more wins, the Falcons will be at four wins and need to finish the season strong. Western Michigan more than provides that opportunity, and with one more upset along the way, this team is bowling.

Why Bowling Green Can Not Win 4.5 Games

For a win total of 4.5, an under means losing eight times. There are three games on the schedule in which Bowling Green will be heavy underdogs. First, they will not be upsetting Michigan. Then, it will be difficult for them to take out Liberty and Georgia Tech. With a 1-3 non-conference record, the Falcons will need to do 4-4 in conference play to hit the over.

There is one major issue with that. They face four of the top five teams in terms of odds to win the MAC on their schedule. Only five teams have shorter odds that +1000 in the MAC to win it all, and four of them sit on their schedule. To make matters worse, the two easier opponents are on the road. The better outcome is to play the hardest games on the road and the more winnable games at home. That is not going to be the case here. Bowling Green gets Toledo and Ohio at home. Not only do these schools have better defenses, but they also have better quarterbacks as well. Both of them will be losses.

Then there is Buffalo and Miami (OH). Miami (OH) has a solid secondary, but they just do not get a good pass rush. A pass rush will not matter if the receivers cannot get open. Buffalo has a great linebacking core and interior defensive linemen that can shut down any hope of a run game. Meaning they can focus on the past. In Connor Bazelak's career, that situation has gone poorly.

This means Bowling Green will have to be perfect in every other game. That will not happen. Akron and Ball State are both better and in the Akron game, no one on Bowling Green can slow down Irons.

Final Bowling Green Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

Hitting five games will be very tight for Bowling Green. If they can somehow get a second win in non-conference play, they can hit the over. If not, the road is extremely difficult. They will need to pull an upset on the road to do it. Bazelak and Loeffler have not shown in their careers they can do that. Bowling Green finishes a disappointing 4-8 this year.

Final Bowling Green Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 4.5 (+138)