College Football Odds: Michigan over/under win total prediction
The Michigan Wolverines have made the college football playoffs two years in a row, and they will look to make it three. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Michigan Football over/under win total prediction and pick.
Last year, Michigan went 12-0 in the regular season, then won the Big Ten title game over Purdue before falling to TCU in the playoffs. This comes off an 11-1 regular season in 2021, which saw another Big Ten Title but a loss to Georgia in the playoffs. Michigan brings back the core of their offense. J.J. McCarthy returns as the starter for his second season in that role. Blake Corum will be a Heisman hopeful and will be leading the backfield. Corum will be joined by Donovan Edwards in the backfield again, creating a dangerous one-two punch.
Still, the Michigan Wolverines have lost leading receiver Ronnie Bell. Lule Schoonmaker is leaving as well, meaning two of the top three receivers from last year are no longer with the team. The offensive line loses Alusegun Oluwatimi and Ryan Hayes. DJ Turner, Gremon Green, Mike Morris, and Mazi Smith all leave the defense. Michigan also lost their reliable kicker, as Jake Moody is off to the NFL. Michigan did a good job in the transfer portal, and bring back nine of the 12 defensive players who played over 400 snaps for them. The win total is set at 10.5, but are there two teams that can take down the Wolverines?
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Michigan Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 10.5 wins: -122
Under 10.5 wins: +100
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Why Michigan Can Win 10.5 Games
The Michigan Wolverines finished last season third in SP+ while going perfect in the regular season. They also rank fifth in returning production according to Bill Connelly. The teams that rank in front of Michigan in terms of returning production are Florida State, Kansas, FAU, and Wyoming. None of those teams are on the schedule for Michigan this year. To make it to 11 wins, Michigan will need to go perfect in non-conference play. First of all, all of their non-conference games are at home. ECU is their first opponent. They ranked 62nd in SP+ last year, went 8-5, and 130th in returning production. Michigan then plays UNLV and Bowling Green. Both were below 100th in SP+ last year. All three games should be wins for Michigan, meaning they can lose one game in conference play and still cover.
Conference play opens up at home against Rutgers, before their first two away games. Rutgers should be improved, as they are also top 25 in returning production. Still, Michigan won this game 52-17 last year. After Rutgers comes to Nebraska and Minnesota. Both of those teams are expected to be fighting for bowl eligibility and Michigan should be double-digit favorites. Facing these two means they also dodge Wisconsin this year, which is a big help toward 11 wins. The two biggest changes for a loss come in the last three weeks of the season.
They first play Penn State on the road on November 11th. Penn State may have one of the best defensive units in the country, and at least the Big Ten. They have top-quality players in all three levels of the defense. The offense will be led by Drew Allar and two sophomore tailbacks. This team is still very young on offense, and may not be able to keep up with Michigan
Then there is Ohio State the last game of the year. The Buckeyes may have the best set of wideouts and running backs in the nation. Combining that with a top-level defensive line, and could be trouble. Still, Ohio State had many of these guys last year, plus a first-round quarterback. They do not have that quarterback again, and Michigan can easily win one of those two games to make the over 10.5 wins the pick for Michigan football.
Why Michigan Can Not Win 10.5 Games
There are two roads to Michigan football losing two games this year. Route one is that they lose to both Penn State and Ohio State. For those to happen, it needs to start with the offensive line for Michigan. Michigan has won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the past two years. They lost their stud center and two tackles, but bring back two great guards. If the depth they had lined up plus the transfers they took do not pan out, it could allow both Penn State and Ohio State to strike.
It also will require a regression from JJ McCarthy. McCarthy is currently being projected as a first-round pick next year, but those early mock drafts do not always tell a full story. If he takes a step back, it could open the window for one of those other teams to take over the Big Ten. McCarthy played well against both Ohio State and Penn State last year, so seeing him step back would be big for them. There is also always the potential for injury for any team. Michigan has a lot of depth at many positions, but the depth at quarterback is fairly unproven and unknown.
The second option to get to two losses is with an embarrassing slip-up. It almost happened last year against Illinois, in a game that was too close for comfort for Michigan fans. It also happened in the Jim Harbaugh era. In 2020, Michigan had plenty of those types of games, but that was the Covid year and could be looked over. In 2019 it was a complete beatdown at the hands of Wisconsin. Michigan was ranked higher going into that game and lost by 21. The 2017 season had a crazy finish and upset at the hands of Michigan State, which was their first loss of the year. Still, those games seem like ancient history now, as Harbaugh has avoided them as of late.
Final Michigan Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Michigan Wolverines finished with one loss last year. It was in the college football playoffs and was an disappointing loss to TCU. Beyond that, the Michigan Wolverines played just two games that were within one score. One was in week four against Maryland, as the defense struggled some. The other was against a top-level defense in Illinois in their 11th game of the year. Even if Michigan cannot beat Ohio State for a third straight season, there is no reason to think they will drop two especially considering they are returning so many players from last year.
Final Michigan Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Michigan Over 10.5 Wins (-122)
