College Football Odds, Picks and Predictions For Week 1

Iowa did not boast a world-beating offense in 2022 and it doesn't look like we can count on a substantial improvement to kick off 2023. Our first Triple Option column is highlighting the Under in the Hawkeyes' game vs. Utah State.

Five nights of college football. We waited 230 days between the national championship and Week 0, but was Notre Dame’s rout of Navy and USC’s abysmal defense really enough? For that matter, look past bowl season. We have waited nine months for a full weekend of our favorite sport.

Can you imagine waiting nine months for something? Can you imagine exiting Thanksgiving weekend and holding your breath for nine months before true joy entered your life anew? Can you imagine having that much forewarning and not clearing out all of life’s obstacles this weekend?

Good thing we don’t have to anymore. A newborn college football season is upon us. Let’s not waste any more time. Let’s delve into it, let’s find three favorite NCAA football plays for Week 1, even if one of them is an exercise in the painfully mundane. Sometimes life gives you lemons and you can lean into Iowa football.

That and more as the Triple Option returns with Covers’ best college football picks and predictions for Week 1.

College football picks and predictions for Week 1

Utah State at Iowa Under 43 (-110)

This is not solely a bet against Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara being full-go this weekend, though that certainly put the thought over the top, so let’s start there.

McNamara suffered a quad injury in practice about two weeks ago. It has greatly limited him since, and this week the wonders grew louder about whether he would play against Utah State at all. Conflicting reports emerged Wednesday afternoon. Reading between the lines, it seems most likely McNamara tries to play and does so in a stationary fashion.

Not that the Hawkeyes would be likely to run McNamara much, anyway. Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz can say whatever he wants, but we all know the truth. The Hawkeyes will remain more offensively inept than they should be given the quality of the other side of the ball.

Ferentz knows his job is on the line if Iowa does not average 25 points per game this season, but the Hawkeyes can reach that without cracking this game total this weekend.

Utah State’s offense was ugly last season, failing to find any strength aside from starting field position, not exactly an offensive trait and certainly not one that will be abundant against Iowa’s program-proclaimed “Most famous punter in America.” Do not expect it to find a groove against the Hawkeyes.

A limited quarterback that may create more rushing opportunities being considered the “good” offense should be enough logic to propel this Under the total. Add in the new clock rules — an effect largely overstated but one applicable in the extremes like any Iowa game — and Utah State may be lucky to get eight possessions on Saturday.

Looking at the Aggies’ quality drive rate and points per quality drive from last season, they would need eight drives against an average opponent to reach 10 points, the number needed to stress test this total given the Hawkeyes’ presumed scoring difficulties. Yes, a disclaimer should be offered that those were last year’s quality drive rate and points per quality drive numbers, but a disclaimer should also be offered that Iowa’s defense will be far better than an average opponent’s.

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Washington -14 vs. Boise State (-110)

Let's acknowledge that yours truly firmly believes in Kalen DeBoer’s second-year successes. This handicapper is higher on Washington than the market at large.

In his second year at Division II Sioux Falls, DeBoer went from 11-2 to 14-0 and won the national championship. In his second season at Fresno State, he went from 3-3 (the 2020 season) to 9-3 and second in the Bulldogs’ half of the Mountain West. Any similar jump at Washington this year will lead from 11-2 to — those thoughts are not for today.

The Huskies’ strength is obviously the passing game. In terms of success rate when passing, it ranked No. 2 in the country last year and was a primary piece of Washington having greater third- and fourth-down success than any other offense in the country.

Now, Michael Penix Jr. gets to face a Boise State secondary replacing its two best players, two All-Mountain West first-teamers. No matter their replacements, the Broncos will have a drop-off.

DeBoer will not ease up against Boise State, either. His Mountain West background means he knows that roster is talented enough to make a comeback. Look for Penix to get a Heisman-contending season off to a strong start, not just this weekend but all month.

North Carolina -2.5 vs. South Carolina (-110)

The Tar Heels have not yet heard if Kent State receiver transfer Tez Walker will be eligible. Let’s assume the NCAA fails to issue a ruling by the weekend because we should always assume the NCAA will fail.

This line moved in response to the initial ruling against Walker, falling to -2.5 from -3.0. That alone is reason enough to bet on North Carolina. “Buy on bad news, sell on good news” is a quip boiling down to, “fade the public,” and trusting the public will always overreact to injury or availability news.

Walker may be Drake Maye’s best target, but rare is the receiver that should affect a spread, particularly coming off a key number like -3.

Furthermore, the Heels might not pass that much against South Carolina. North Carolina returns its entire backfield and four of its five offensive linemen. It was a largely successful run game last season, so returning those aspects should, obviously, only help.

And it goes against what was a terrible rush defense. The Gamecocks ranked No. 116 in the country in expected points added per rush against, per cfb-graphs.com. When teams rushed against South Carolina, they gained enough yardage to be considered successful 62.8% of the time. And now the Gamecocks need to replace all but one defensive line starter and their two best linebackers.

The biggest mismatch on the field will be North Carolina’s rush offense against South Carolina’s rush defense, and anytime that is the case in a game with a spread of less than a field goal, siding with that advantage is a no-brainer.

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