College football picks: Florida State vs. Florida prediction, odds, spread, game preview, more for season finale

The No. 5 Florida State Seminoles will hit the road to Gainesville tonight for their annual rivalry showdown against the Florida Gators. The 67th edition of this Sunshine State rivalry will kick off at 7 p.m. ET and will air on ESPN.

Florida State (11-0, 8-0 ACC) dominated North Alabama 58-13 last Saturday, but the big story from that game was starting quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending leg injury in the first half. The veteran had to be carted off the field and backup Tate Rodemaker stepped in for the Noles. He went 13-23 for 217 yards and two touchdowns in the victory.

Florida (5-6, 3-6 SEC) dropped its fourth straight contest last Saturday, falling in a 33-31 loss at Missouri to put its bowl eligibility hopes in major jeopardy. A Trey Smack field goal with less than two minutes left gave the Gators a one-point lead, but Mizzou managed to drive down the field and set Harrison Mervis up for a 40-yard go-ahead field goal with five seconds remaining. UF also lost its starting QB with Graham Mertz suffering a collarbone injury.

SP+ Rankings

Florida State: 5 overall, 7 offense, 9 defense
Florida: 47 overall, 34 offense, 74 defense

Injury update

Florida State

QB Jordan Travis - Out for season (Leg)WR Hykeem Williams - Questionable (Foot)

WR Darion Williamson - Questionable (Undisclosed)

Florida

QB Graham Mertz - Out for season (Collarbone)TE Jonathan Odom - Out indefinitely (Concussion)TE Tony Livingston - Questionable (Upper Body)WR Caleb Douglas - Out (Leg)LB Jack Pyburn - Questionable (Lower Body)

WR Andy Jean - Out indefinitely (Lower Body)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Florida State: 6-5 ATS
Florida: 4-7 ATS

Total in 2023

Florida State: Over 7-4
Florida: Over 7-3-1

Team Pace

Florida State: 2.25 plays per minute of offense
Florida: 2.07 plays per minute of offense

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Florida State -6.5
Total: 49
Moneyline: Florida State -238, Florida +195

Opening line: Florida State -7
Opening total: 50.5

Weather

55 degrees, clear, 7 MPH winds ENE

Our Best Bet for Florida State vs. Florida

Florida State -6.5

Even with Jordan Travis’ devastating injury looming over the program, I think the Noles still roll in Gainesville here. Tate Rodemaker is a veteran and showed that he was capable of at least managing the offense in a tough situation last week. He has plenty of skill position weapons to lean on and I think he’ll utilize them against a Gator team that has fallen apart down the stretch. Give me FSU to cover here.