Florida State vs. Florida odds, props, predictions: Both teams starting backup QBs, but offenses should still shine

Florida State losing quarterback Jordan Travis was devastating. Playing a meaningless tune-up against FCS member North Alabama in the home regular-season finale, Travis suffered a devastating leg injury that ended his college career.

Will it end undefeated FSU’s national title hopes?

Florida QB Graham Mertz may return next season, but his 2023 is done due to a broken clavicle suffered hours later last Saturday night at Missouri. Whether his teammates play another game this season remains to be seen since they’re in a must-win situation in order to become bowl eligible.

Handicapping Florida State vs. Florida odds and predictions require projecting how both new starters will fare with so much on the line. 

It says a lot about how unpredictable and violent football can be that no one could have predicted that the 2023 version of this rivalry would feature fourth-year junior Tate Rodemaker against redshirt freshman Max Brown as starters when the nightfall hit in the Sunshine state last Saturday. Now entire seasons hinge on just how effective they can be as leaders and passers. Action in Gainesville kicks off at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday night. 

These teams have met annually, typically on the final weekend of the regular season, every year since 1958 with the exception of the COVID-impacted season of 2020.

FSU snapped a three-game losing streak in the series last November, winning 45-38, giving head coach Mike Norvell his first win in three tries and Billy Napier a loss in his first of these rivalry games. Florida leads 37-27-2, but FSU is 8-4 since 2010.

Florida State vs. Florida odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the latest college football betting odds for the Seminoles vs. Gators:

Florida State betting news: Rodemaker has explosive weapons around him on Seminoles' offense

The Seminoles (11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS) were trailing North Alabama 13-0 when Travis suffered his injury late in the first quarter, which speaks volumes about how little focus they came into the game with. Rodemaker completed his first two passes but the ‘Noles wound up settling for a field goal before finally regaining their focus, locking in and scoring 55 more unanswered points. 

Rodemaker has been on FSU’s campus since 2020, reporting early for spring football after signing day. He’s been in the quarterback room for as long as head coach Mike Norvell has been on campus, ascended up the depth chart enough to play as a true freshman, got into the game against the Gators in 2021, threw his first two touchdown passes against Louisville -- a team he’ll see in next week’s ACC Championship -- last season, replacing Travis after an injury, and is up to five TD passes without an interception this season, mostly in mop-up duty. 

Rodemaker threw for 217 yards on 13-for-23 passing last week and has some of the top skill position players in the nation alongside him in RB Trey Benson, and receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. He was just playing pitch-and-catch against an overmatched group in the Lions, so he’ll have significantly more work to do in reading the defense pre-snap and getting his team into the right plays against an SEC defense on the road.

Florida is extremely young on that side of the ball, but does have a lot of talent. Gator nation also will make life tough for him, and although the team has struggled all season, they are 4-1 at the Swamp, losing only to Arkansas in overtime in a game they largely controlled.

Rodemaker is 23-for-39 for 264 yards with two touchdowns and all three of his career interceptions on the road. He went 1-for-2 in his cup of coffee in Gainesville in ‘21, playing as Travis struggled with a shoulder injury. Florida won that game 24-21 behind current Indianapolis Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson. 

Florida betting news: Gators counting on freshman QB to get them into bowl season

Mertz picked up a huge first down against Missouri by running through two linebackers in the third quarter in Columbia last Saturday night, but he took a huge shot in the process and could no longer throw. 

Florida (5-6, 4-7) managed to capture the lead behind the arms and legs of Brown, a highly-rated recruit, but its defense couldn’t hold it. The Gators surrendered a long completion on fourth down when they were in position to end the game and ultimately lost 33-31 on a walk-off field goal. 

The Gators have been blown out by Georgia and LSU, and lost a pair of games they were in position to win late against Arkansas and Missouri. If they fail to pull off the road upset here, they’ll be home for the bowl season for the first time since 2017.

Napier isn’t in danger of being fired just yet because recruiting has gone so well, but his young defense and Brown, who is from Tulsa, will now be responsible for making those efforts look good against the team’s primary in-state rival. 

Florida’s defense has surrendered 33 or more points in six of seven games, with lowly Vanderbilt the lone outlier. Offensively, backs Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson will take some pressure off Brown, but he’ll have to be more poised than he was early against Mizzou, when a lost fumble killed a crucial drive deep in Tigers’ territory.

Brown has now played in three games, completing 10 of 12 passes for 106 yards and running for 42 yards, all last weekend, on eight carries.

Florida State vs. Florida prop picks

• FSU Over 3.5 total touchdowns (+110) 
• Both teams to score 20-plus points YES (+105)

Early in the week, there were no player props available for this game, but a few team-specific props were available.

Rodemaker is experienced enough to trust in a hostile atmosphere given all the weapons he has and how porous the Gators’ young defense has been.

FSU is a much sounder group on that side of the ball, but Brown comes off thriving in a high-pressure situation on the road and will likely be forced to win a shootout to take Florida to a bowl game.

Florida State vs. Florida prediction

This matchup is among Saturday’s most riveting given all that’s at stake and how little experience both quarterbacks have as they try to excel with so much on the line.

As you can likely tell from the props above, the expectation here is that there will be plenty of points scored despite backups being at the helm. Clear conditions will be in place on Saturday night, and Florida State will either be seeking out style points to impress the CFP selection committee or simply looking to survive come the fourth quarter in Gainesville.

Either way, the ‘Noles will be in attack mode.