College football picks, Week 12: Louisville vs. Miami prediction, odds, spread, game preview, more

The No. 11 Louisville Cardinals face the Miami Hurricanes in an ACC matchup in Week 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium. Louisville can clinch a trip to the ACC Championship with a win here.

Louisville (9-1, 6-1 ACC) has just the sole loss to Pitt from earlier this year sullying their resume. As they look ahead at the chance to take on Florida State in Charlotte, they first have to overcome this Canes team. The Cardinals beat Virginia in a game that was a bit too close for comfort last week, finishing 31-24. Quarterback Jack Plummer passed for two touchdowns and an interception, and Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo each added over 90 rushing yards.

Miami (6-4, 2-4 ACC) has struggled in the past two weeks, dropping consecutive games against NC State and Florida State, though they were able to keep it close with the fourth-ranked Seminoles. They benched starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke in favor of freshman Emory Williams, who suffered a season-ending injury last week. Van Dyke is back as the starter as they take on Louisville. He has passed for 16 touchdowns and 12 interceptions this season.

Here’s everything you need to know and a pick for the game.

SP+ Rankings

Louisville: 21 overall, 33 offense, 18 defense
Miami: 26 overall, 42 offense, 31 defense

Injury update

Louisville

DB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. - Questionable (undisclosed)

Miami

RB Ajay Allen - Probable (undisclosed)RB Henry Parrish Jr - Probable (undisclosed)TE Elijah Arroyo - Questionable (undisclosed)

QB Emory Williams - Out for season (arm)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Louisville: 5-5 ATS
Miami: 5-5 ATS

Total in 2023

Louisville: Over 4-5-1
Miami: Over 5-5

Team Pace (through Week 10)

Louisville: 28.3 seconds per play
Miami: 28.1 seconds per play

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Miami -1
Total: 46.5
Moneyline: Louisville -105, Miami -115

Weather

Our Best Bet for Louisville vs. Miami

Louisville +1

This one could swing either way, especially with Tyler Van Dyke returning to the field with something to prove. However, I think that the stakes of the game will push Louisville over the top. They’ve proven that they can hang on a big stage — see their beatdown of Notre Dame earlier this season — and they’ve hopefully gotten last week’s defensive issues out of their system.