College Football Playoff odds, schedule: Michigan favored in Rose Bowl, Texas the favorite in Sugar Bowl
There’s plenty of controversy around which four teams should’ve made this year’s College Football Playoff. Now that we have the four-team field of Michigan, Washington, Texas and Alabama, the odds are also out for the semifinals.
There have been a number of blowouts in CFP semifinals over the years, but the spreads for both semifinals this year are less than a touchdown. No. 1 Michigan is a small favorite against No. 4 Alabama in the Rose Bowl. No. 3 Texas is favored by more than a field goal against No. 2 Washington in the Sugar Bowl.
We used Austin Mock’s College Football Playoff model to rank and assess the teams’ chances of winning the national title.
National title projections
Austin’s model says that Alabama and Michigan are the clear favorites to win the national title, regardless of them having to face each other in the Rose Bowl. They are the top two remaining teams in the model.
National title odds
The odds on BetMGM are similar, but given Michigan the edge ahead of Alabama. The Wolverines are +160 while Alabama is +190 to win it all. Texas is next at +310 while Washington is the longshot at +700 (7-to-1).
College Football Playoff Schedule
Semifinals on Monday, January 1
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama
5 p.m. ET on ESPN
Michigan hasn’t been an offensive juggernaut in the last month of the season, but did maintain a shutout against Iowa to win the Wolverines’ third straight Big Ten title. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy hasn’t thrown for 150 yards in any of his last four games and Michigan managed just 213 yards of offense against Iowa, but that game was more about managing the game and letting the defense do the work.
Michigan’s defense has been doing work all season. The Wolverines have allowed 9.5 points per game, the fewest in the country.
On the other side, Alabama’s defense has three first-rounders in Dane Brugler’s NFL mock draft (DE Dallas Turner and CBs Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry). Alabama’s offense has been on a roller coaster this year as quarterback Jalen Milroe has grown into the position as a first-year starter. When Alabama lost to Texas early in the season, and the Crimson Tide labored at South Florida a week later, it looked like Alabama could not get here. But Milroe hasn’t thrown two interceptions in a game since that Texas loss and has racked up 35 total touchdowns (23 passing, 12 rushing).
Michigan has been in the CFP each of the last two years and has lost in the semifinals both times. Alabama, of course, has been a mainstay in the CFP. This is the Crimson Tide’s eighth CFP appearance and they are 6-1 in semifinals.
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas
8:45 p.m. ET on ESPN
Washington was a two-score underdog entering the Pac-12 title game and will also be the underdog against Texas. The Longhorns are favored for this game in New Orleans.
The Huskies’ offense has been the eye-popping aspect of this team. They are 11th in the country with 37.7 points per game, have the nation’s leading passer (Michael Penix Jr. with 4,218 yards) and the second-leading receiver (Rome Odunze at 1,428 yards). Washington has won four in a row and seven of its last nine games by one score, but the Huskies outgained Oregon by 118 yards in the Pac-12 title game.
Texas’ offense is also on fire lately. With questions of whether the Longhorns would get into the CFP, Texas hit the turbo button on its offense. The Longhorns put up 57 against Texas Tech in the regular season finale and 49 against Oklahoma State. Both games felt like Texas could have scored more if it wanted to.
The absence of standout running back Jonathon Brooks due to injury is still worth mentioning, but Texas has run the ball just fine in the three games without him, averaging 207.7 yards on the ground in the three games Brooks has missed. Washington’s defense has been porous at times this season and will have a tough time with all the weapons Texas has, notably wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell.
Texas is making its first appearance in the CFP. Washington is making its second CFP appearance after losing a semifinal in the 2016 season.
