Michigan vs. Alabama Rose Bowl line, prediction, odds: College Football Playoff semifinal is nearly a pick ’em

Michigan is undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the country. Alabama is coming off winning the SEC and beat Georgia, something no other team has done in three seasons. Even as far as national semifinals go, this is a big matchup on paper. The Wolverines enter the Rose Bowl as small favorites.

Michigan opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the line has moved in Alabama’s direction by a point. It’s not quite a toss-up, but it’s close. How do these teams match up?

Michigan hasn’t been an offensive juggernaut in the last month of the season, but did maintain a shutout against Iowa to win the Wolverines’ third straight Big Ten title. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy hasn’t thrown for 150 yards in any of his last four games and Michigan managed just 213 yards of offense against Iowa, but that game was more about managing the game and letting the defense do the work.

Michigan’s defense has been doing work all season. The Wolverines have allowed 9.5 points per game, the fewest in the country.

On the other side, Alabama’s defense has three first-rounders in Dane Brugler’s NFL mock draft (DE Dallas Turner and CBs Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry). If Turner and Alabama’s pass rush can get to McCarthy, Michigan could turn into a one-dimensional offense. The Wolverines have gotten away with being one-dimensional against the likes of Penn State, but will that work against Alabama?

Alabama’s offense has been on a roller coaster this year as quarterback Jalen Milroe has grown into the position as a first-year starter. When Alabama lost to Texas early in the season, and the Crimson Tide labored at South Florida a week later, it looked like Alabama could not get here. But Milroe hasn’t thrown two interceptions in a game since that Texas loss and has racked up 35 total touchdowns (23 passing, 12 rushing).

Michigan’s defense could be the best one Milroe and Alabama have seen all year. The Wolverines are allowing 9.5 points a game, a staggering stat, even in the offensively-challenged Big Ten.

Michigan has been in the CFP each of the last two years and has lost in the semifinals both times. Alabama, of course, has been a mainstay in the CFP. This is the Crimson Tide’s eighth CFP appearance and they are 6-1 in semifinals. The spread is small, but who wants to give Nick Saban points in a neutral-field game with a month to prepare?

What is the spread for Michigan vs. Alabama?

Expert picks against the spread

How to watch and stream Michigan vs. Alabama

Opening kickoff is set for 5 p.m. ET on Monday at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. ESPN will provide coverage for the game and it will be streaming on the ESPN app.