CFP odds: Point spreads for every possible National Championship Game matchup

Biggest X-Factors for the College Football Playoffs

With the College Football Playoff almost upon us, FanDuel has released the odds for every potential national championship matchup. Alabama, Michigan, Texas and Washington will compete in the semifinals on New Year’s Day and only two will emerge victorious with an opportunity to hoist the national title trophy.

There are several intriguing potential matchups, including a rematch of September’s game between the Crimson Tide and Longhorns. We could also see Texas take on the Wolverines, who play Alabama in the Rose Bowl. The Longhorns must first beat the Huskies in the Sugar Bowl to reach the title game.

You can view the full odds for every potential national championship matchup below.

Alabama (-2.5) vs. Texas

Texas might have gotten the best of Alabama back in September, but Vegas favors the Crimson Tide in a potential rematch. The Longhorns walked into Tuscaloosa in Week 2 and handed Alabama a 34-24 loss as quarterback Quinn Ewers threw for 349 yards and three touchdowns.

Alabama has reeled off 11 straight victories since dropping that game to the Longhorns. Quarterback Jalen Milroe would surely like an opportunity at redemption after throwing two interceptions and being sacked four times in the first meeting. If this matchup occurs, it will be the third time since 2012 that two teams who played in the regular season face off in the national title.

Alabama (-6.5) vs. Washington

Assuming that Alabama is able to knock off top-seeded Michigan in the Rose Bowl, Washington is it’s other potential opponent. That would be a rematch of the Peach Bowl in 2016, which served as a College Football Playoff semifinal matchup.

The Crimson Tide won that game 24-7 and own a 5-0 all-time record against the Huskies. That means history is on their side, but Michael Penix Jr. and the Washington passing attack would certainly provide a big challenge for an Alabama secondary that ranks 23rd in the country in passing defense.

Texas vs. Michigan (-3)

If Texas makes the national title and doesn’t run into Alabama, the Longhorns will draw No. 1 Michigan. The Wolverines have been the most dominant defense in the country and the only one that is holding opponents under 10 points per game.

Texas and Michigan have met only one time in the history of the two programs. The pair played in the Rose Bowl following the 2004 season as Vince Young rushed for four touchdowns in a narrow 38-37 victory. Vegas likes the Wolverines’ odds, however, to get their revenge for that loss in this potential national championship matchup.

Washington vs. Michigan (-7)

Finally, if none of the above matchups take place, we’ll be looking at a Michigan-Washington national championship game. The Wolverines hold an 8-5 lead in the all-time series against the Huskies, including a 31-10 victory in the most recent meeting in 2021.

This would pit the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds against each other and watching Washington’s offense against Michigan’s defense would certainly provide an entertaining matchup. That said, oddsmakers don’t like the Huskies’ chances if this does end up being the title game.

CFP semifinals point spreads

Rose Bowl: Michigan (-1.5) vs. Alabama

Of course, to reach the national championship each of these teams must past their test in the semifinals. Alabama and Michigan will play each other in the granddaddy of them all with a trip to the title up for grabs.

Both teams enter with defenses that rank among the top 20 in the country in points allowed per game. That being the case, it could come down to which quarterback is able to make more plays between Milroe and JJ McCarthy. This game is one that should come down to the wire as Jim Harbaugh aims for his first national title while Nick Saban searches for his eighth.

Sugar Bowl: Texas (-4.5) vs. Washington

Texas is making its first appearance in the College Football Playoff while Washington is back for the second time after losing in the semifinals in 2017. The Huskies will hope their No. 1 passing offense is enough to take them further this time around, but must fend off a fierce Longhorns pass rush.

The trio of Ethan Burke, Anthony Hill and Byron Murphy have combined for 15.5 sacks this season and will be sure to put pressure on Penix. If Ewers can play the way he did in the Big 12 Championship (452 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT), Texas should have a good shot.