College football prediction: Alabama will find way to cover
There are no sure things in sports gambling, but Nick Saban in Week 1 is as close as possible.
Saban is 15-0 straight up and 13-2 ATS in opening games as head coach of the Crimson Tide, covering the spread by an average margin of 8.5 points.
He abuses opponents in his season openers, and I don’t expect Middle Tennessee State to buck that trend.
The Blue Raiders are trying to replace six starters on offense, including quarterback Chase Cunningham and the top three receivers.
I don’t see how they move the ball, especially behind an offensive line that was dead last in PFF’s blocking grades last year.
Meanwhile, the Middle Tennessee defense is due for turnover regression (plus-12 in net TOs last season), especially with its top ball-hawking corner hitting the portal.
I have doubts surrounding Alabama football this year because the team lacks experience.
But the Tide have a boatload of blue-chip recruits, and history suggests Saban and his raw, talented group will come out hot.
The pick: Alabama -39.5.
North Carolina (-2.5) over South Carolina (in Charlotte, N.C.)
South Carolina is wildly overvalued after its surge at the end of last season. The Gamecocks finished 8-5 with some major upsets, but they were minus-80 in net yards per game during SEC play.
They’ll try to replace six starters from their 2022 defense, including two cornerbacks and a defensive lineman now in the NFL.
Quarterback Spencer Rattler is a gamer, but the Gamecocks return only one of their top five receivers for him.
Besides, Drake Maye is the better quarterback: He led the nation in PFF’s passing grades last season and has 16 returning starters surrounding him, including 157 career FBS starts on the offensive line.
I’m trusting the more experienced team with the better quarterback, and I’m happy to lay the 2.5 points when our Action Network team projects UNC as a seven-point neutral-field favorite.
COLORADO STATE (+10.5) over Washington State
Colorado State’s offensive line allowed an FBS-high 59 sacks last season. So, Jay Norvell said enough is enough and rebuilt the line with four experienced transfers.
If the line comes together and improves even moderately on its performance last year, the Rams could be one of the MWC’s better offenses.
Betting on College Football?
Clay Millen completed 72.2 percent of his passes last season, setting a freshman record despite being constantly harassed. Millen has a potentially elite receiving corps, headlined by Tory Horton (1131 yards and eight TDs last season).
If the Rams want to show improvement, Week 1 is the perfect opportunity. Washington State lost six defensive starters in the offseason, including four of their top six tacklers, and the Cougars are overvalued after posting a 6-4 record despite a minus-80 net YPG differential.
I’m looking for Colorado State to move the ball against Washington State’s new-look defense, keeping this game within one score for 60 minutes. Our Action Analytics team projects the Cougars as only eight-point favorites, so there’s value with the Rams as double-digit home ’dogs.
