Colorado vs. Colorado State prediction: College football picks, odds

Coach Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes shocked the world again in Week 2, obliterating Nebraska 36-14 to move to 2-0 on the season and No. 18 in the AP Poll. 

Vegas’ pre-season win total for Colorado was 3.5.

The Buffaloes have already exceeded pre-season expectations. 

This week comes a different challenge. 

Coach Prime and Co. are three-touchdown favorites over in-state rival Colorado State.

It’s the only Group of Five team on Colorado’s schedule, with the other 11 games against Power Five opponents. 

Can Colorado run it up against inferior competition?

Or is the team better suited to play up to competition rather than down?

Read on for my Colorado State vs. Colorado prediction and best bet. 

Colorado State vs. Colorado prediction

Situationally, this week’s spot favors Colorado State. 

The Buffaloes are in a brutal sandwich spot coming off games against two Power Five opponents with a monster matchup against Bo Nix and Oregon on deck. 

If there is one sleepy spot on Coach Prime’s schedule, this is it.

It’s the only time they’ll be three-touchdown home favorites for the rest of the season. 

Meanwhile, the Rams had a bye last week, meaning they’ve had two full weeks to prepare for this game. 

That said, I am worried about Colorado State. 

I was high on the Rams in the preseason, but they were blitzed by a Washington State team that lost a ton of production on both sides of the ball. 

Colorado State’s new-look offensive line (four offseason transfers) didn’t hold up like I thought it might, and its experienced secondary (four returning starters) didn’t show improvement, instead getting gashed by Cam Ward for 466 yards at 9.3 yards per attempt. 

There were so many holes in the Rams secondary.

The Cougars had enormous passing lanes all day, using those lanes to post massive yards after the catch numbers. 

So, naturally, I’m worried that Colorado’s deadly passing attack will shred Colorado State’s defense while Colorado State’s offense flails because it can’t get a push in the trenches. 

It also doesn’t help that Colorado State’s air-raid scheme runs into Colorado’s secondary, the relative defensive strength of the team.

The Buffaloes’ rush defense is broken, but Travis Hunter and co. have been OK against the pass. 

However, I think Colorado’s pass defense is due for further regression. 

Nebraska’s pass attack flailed against Colorado because Jeff Sims isn’t a good passing quarterback.

TCU’s pass attack struggled (relatively struggled, still had 279 yards on 6.6 yards per attempt) because they lost Max Duggan, Quentin Johnston and Garrett Riley in the offseason. 

The roster still has holes, primarily on the offensive line and across the defense. 

So, I don’t expect the Buffaloes to keep up this torrid pace over the entire season, yet the public will continue pumping them in the markets. 

And perhaps Colorado State’s Week 1 loss wasn’t as bad as it seemed. 

Washington State showed it was undervalued against Wisconsin last week, playing above market expectations in a nine-point road win.

Ward and the Cougars are a much more dangerous team than previously thought.  

The Rams should improve exponentially in their second year under head coach Jay Norvell, who took Nevada from three to eight wins in his second season.

Week 1 doesn’t look good, but I won’t overreact to one bad loss against a high-quality opponent. 

Also, Norvell named a new starting quarterback in Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi after Clay Millen exited last week.

Nicolosi looked solid in limited action, leading three touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. 

Betting on College Football?

With the quarterback change, the extra week of preparation will be huge, as Fowler-Nicolosi will have had enough time to get up to speed.  

Ultimately, I’m not taking too much from the season’s first few weeks.

I expect the Rams to improve while the Buffaloes take a step back, and I think this monster spread isn’t representative of the true-talent matchup.

And I’ll mainly be betting on Colorado State because of the situational spot, as I think Prime and the Buffs are looking ahead to next week (and the week after, where they’ll host USC).

Don’t be surprised if Colorado looks sleepy or sloppy in Week 3.