College football predictions, picks, odds: Texas A&M-South Carolina, Duke-Louisville among Week 9 value plays
After a frantic first half of the 2023 college football season filled with major upsets and impactful results, Week 9 should be a step in the other direction. There aren't many marquee games to keep an eye on, with just two ranked matchups on the entire slate, and most of the contests -- on paper -- lack in national relevancy.
But there's still value to be found. It's a big week for the Big 12 in this column, with two games featured out of the five selections. Baylor hosts Iowa State as the Bears look to turn their season around and stay in contention for a bowl game. Cincinnati, winless in the Big 12, has to travel to an Oklahoma State team that's picking up steam as the calendar chugs towards the final month of the regular season.
Outside of those more niche games, there is value to be found in an impactful clash between No. 18 Louisville and No. 20 Duke. A loss puts either team behind in a hotly contested ACC race, while the winner takes control of its own postseason destiny.
Last week's value plays column, like one of the predicted results, was a push with a 2-2 record. Oregon and Washington State scored exactly 62 points, matching the projected total. This column went with the under for that game, but hitting the total exactly isn't a complete loss. Looking to inch closer to .500 for the year, here are the value plays that bettors should keep an eye on during Week 8 of the college football season.
Odds via SportsLine consensus
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
When: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET | Where: Kyle Field -- College Station, Texas
My eyebrow raised when I saw the total for this game. Surely the lofty projection is due to Texas A&M's high per-game scoring totals and South Carolina's weak defense. But 53.5 points for this game seems very high. For starters, A&M hasn't scored a ton in conference play. The Aggies have scored a combined 33 points in their last two games. They scored 34 in a win against Arkansas, but 14 of those came off a pick six and a punt return touchdown -- not exactly reliable methods for putting points on the board.
As for South Carolina, the Gamecocks are dreadful away from home. They're averaging 15.3 points and have yet to score above 20 points in conference road games this season. South Carolina isn't going to score a lot against a strong Texas A&M defense and the Aggies aren't built to carry the load that hitting a 50-plus point total requires. Prediction: Under 53.5 (-110)
Minnesota vs. Michigan State
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Huntington Bank Stadium -- Minneapolis, Minnesota
Minnesota's game against Iowa last week hit the under on a total that was projected at 30.5 points. That's really all this entry should need to instill confidence in a bettor. The Golden Gophers can't score, but their defense sure can smother opponents. Meanwhile, Michigan State seems checked out following coach Mel Tucker's in-season firing. The Spartans are fresh off a 49-0 loss to Michigan, their third loss this season in which they scored nine points or less. Minnesota has scored above 20 points once against power conference competition this year. It would take a minor miracle for this game to even sniff 40 total points. Prediction: Under 40.5 (-110)
Baylor vs. Iowa State
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: McLane Stadium -- Waco, Texas
Iowa State has quietly enjoyed very good season since its embarrassing 10-7 loss to Ohio. The Cyclones are 3-1 over the last month and currently sit at third in the Big 12 standings. They rank first in the Big 12 in total defense, allowing 329.3 yards per game. Opponents are averaging less than 200 yards passing per game. The offense isn't great, but it's doing what it needs to do to pick up big wins in conference play.
Now Iowa State gets a Baylor team that ranks 11th in the Big 12 in total offense (400.3 yards per game) and 13th in scoring offense (23.1 points per game). The Bears are 2-2 in conference play but their two wins have come against Cincinnati and UCF, who have a combined 0-8 record in the Big 12. Iowa State should be able to maintain at least a field goal lead for most of this game. Prediction: Iowa State -2.5 (-112)
No. 18 Louisville vs. No. 20 Duke
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium -- Louisville, Kentucky
It makes sense that Louisville is favored in this game. The Cardinals are playing at home. Duke quarterback Riley Leonard re-injured his ankle in a 38-20 loss to Florida State and his status for Saturday is up in the air. But this is a tough matchup for the Cardinals. For starters, breakout star running back Jawhar Jordan is questionable with a hamstring injury. Without him, Louisville is down 119.2 total yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game.
This also has the makings of a slugfest. Louisville and Duke boast two of the best defenses in the ACC, allowing just over 34 points per game between them. This would be the perfect game for Louisville to lean on Jordan, but even if he can play, he'll likely be limited. Meanwhile, Duke has a pair of 400-yard rushers in Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore to lean on if Leonard can't play. In a game where points will come at a premium, taking care of the ball matters. Louisville has 11 turnovers to Duke's seven. The Cardinals turned the ball over three times in their last game, a 38-21 loss to Pittsburgh. With all that in mind, the Duke money line provides value here, even if Leonard can't go. Prediction: Duke ML (+160)
Oklahoma State vs. Cincinnati
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Where: Boone Pickens Stadium -- Stillwater, Oklahoma
People were very quick to write off Oklahoma State after a 33-7 loss to South Alabama, and for good reason. That game stands as one of the most shocking results all year. The Cowboys followed that with a defeat at the hands of Iowa State, making it feel like the 2023 season was about to spiral out of control. Mike Gundy's squad hasn't lost since. Oklahoma State is 3-0 since Sept. 23 with wins against defending Big 12 champion Kansas State and No. 23 Kansas.
Cincinnati is having trouble acclimating to the Big 12. The Bearcats are 0-4 in conference play. Three of those losses came by at least eight points. The Cowboys are peaking at just the right time while Cincinnati has yet to really get things going. This should be another tick in the "W" column for Oklahoma State, and the final result shouldn't be all that close. Prediction: Oklahoma State -7.5 (-109)
