Week 7 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Sports Betting Dime

11 October 2023

Week 7 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Week 7 of the 2023 college football season features several games with ATS betting value, including a couple of bounce-back spots and an SEC rivalry game. We’ve collected our three top CFB picks against the spread to help you make money on Saturday.

Among our top college football picks against the spread this weekend is a play on the No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish as they aim to handle the No. 11 USC Fighting Trojans their first loss. We’re also backing an SEC underdog that offers value to stay within the number.

Let’s dive into our top college football picks against the spread for Week 7 (Saturday, October 14th).

USC vs Notre Dame Odds

Pick #1: Notre Dame (-2.5) vs USC

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will look to rebound from a crushing 33-20 loss to Louisville when they host the USC Trojans in CFB Week 7. The good news is the Fighting Itish have covered the spread in their last four games following an ATS loss.

USC’s defense simply can’t be trusted after being exposed again last weekend. Lincoln Riley’s team gave up 506 yards of total offense in a wild 43-41 overtime victory over lowly Arizona. Entering this Saturday showdown, the Torajans rank third-last in the Pac-12 in total defense (421 YPG).

We aren’t reading too much into UND’s recent loss, although the betting public certainly will. The Irish turned the ball over six times in the Louisville game, despite having only two turnovers in their first six games. Furthermore, this game came in a tough spot following hard-fought games against Ohio State and Duke.

Notre Dame is scoring an average of 34 points per game, and we expect them to rely on their run game to control the tempo and keep Caleb Williams off the field as much as possible. A major matchup here is USC’s defensive line vs. Notre Dame’s bullying run game.

While USC is undefeated, their narrow wins put them on shaky ground in the National Title conversation. Take the Irish to win by at least a field goal on their home field as they will rely on their run game and dominant offensive line to win the critical battle in the trenches.

Pick: Notre Dame -2.5 (-110)

Iowa State vs Cincinnati Odds

Pick #2: Cincinnati (-5.5) vs Iowa State

Our second addition to our Week 7 college football picks against the spread is another team in a bounce-back spot, this time in the Big 12 conference. The Cincinnati Bearcats offer great value to cover the -5.5 spread on their home field.

Iowa State looked solid in a 27-4 victory over TCU last weekend, but they’ve struggled on the road, losing to Oklahoma 50-20 and to Ohio 10-7. They’ll enter this game with one of the least efficient offenses in the Big 12, averaging 348.5 points per contest.

The Cyclones don’t have the ability to truly air the ball out, as they rely heavily on their stout ground game. That could pose a challenge against an elite Cincinnati rush defense that is allowing only 100 rushing yards per game at 3.3 yards per carry.

Whether Cincinnati runs away with this game or not will likely depend on whether dynamic quarterback Emory Jones can take care of the football. But with the Bearcats posting a more balanced offensive attack, plus a stifling run defense, we project them to win this one by a touchdown or more.

Pick: Cincinnati -5.5 (-110)

Texas A&M vs Tennessee Odds

Pick #3: Texas A&M (+3.5) vs Tennessee

For our final play in our Week 7 college football picks against the spread, we’re backing the Texas A&M Aggies in their SEC clash with the Tennessee Vols. This feels like a make-or-break type game for Jimbo Fisher, with a potential loss ramping up the speculation about his future.

We ultimately like this CFB ATS play due to the matchup of the Aggies’ push rush facing Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton. A&M boasts the best sack rate in the country at 15%, with strong performances delivered against Arkansas and Alabama.

Despite Texas A&M’s record looking non-impressive due to losses against Miami and Alabama, the Aggies have outgained opponents so far, averaging 6.26 yards per play compared to their opposition’s 4.73. While 4-1 on the year, Tennesse has faced a significantly weaker strength of schedule to date.

It’s hard to bet against the Vols at home considering they have won 12 straight games at Leland Stadium. However, the Vols are without star receiver Bru Mccoy (injury) and face an elite Aggies’ defense allowing under 20 points per game.

The last time these two teams played (2020), the A&M defense was the difference maker, holding Tennessee to 213 yards in a 34-13 victory. Milton is fairly accurate in a clean pocket, but when he’s under pressure, his completion percentage drops and he becomes very predictable to opposing defenses.