Week 1 college football betting: LSU-Florida State, more
The 2023 college football season has arrived, and it’s an exciting time for sports bettors who have waited over six months for real football to return.
While several top-ranked schools are playing lesser opponents early on, LSU’s rematch with Florida State headlines a Week 1 slate that has some SEC teams facing early challenges.
Below I’ve handicapped the Game of the Week featuring the Tigers and Seminoles as well as five other matchups with a wager to consider for each.
(Lines from Caesars Sportsbook, official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, as of Wednesday)
Game of the Week
No. 5 LSU vs. No. 8 Florida State*
Line: LSU (-2.5, -140) vs. Florida State (+118), 56 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Sunday, Sept. 3 at 6:30 p.m. (ABC)
Analysis: LSU and Florida State put on a show in last season’s Week 1 opener, and this year’s contest is even more highly anticipated with both teams entering 2023 ranked in the top 10.
Handicapping this one is tough, as neither the Tigers or Seminoles have any glaring weaknesses on either side of the ball, and they’ve got strong leadership at quarterback with Jayden Daniels and Jordan Travis back under center for their senior seasons.
The betting line opened as a near pick ‘em back in the spring, but the Tigers have gained steam with the oddsmakers after an offseason filled with hype and optimism considering how much returning talent they possess.
The Seminoles were able to prevail last season and also have lots of returning talent, and while taking them on the money line feels a bit too bold, taking the points appears to offer value since the contest could very well come down to less than three points again.
The pick: Florida State +2.5
*- Game will take place at neutral site (Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL)
SEC best bets
Florida at No. 14 Utah
Line: Florida (+4, +175) at Utah (-210), 43.5 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Thursday, Aug. 31 at 7 p.m. (ESPN)
Analysis: The betting line shifted from 6.5 points in favor of Utah to only four with senior quarterback Cameron Rising out while recovering from a torn ACL suffered in last season’s Rose Bowl, but there’s still reason for optimism for the Utes.
While the passing game might not be quite as sharp without Rising, sophomore Bryson Barnes filled in well for him last season and should be able to keep the offense humming with plenty of talented skill players that shouldn’t have trouble scoring against a Florida defense with only five returning starters.
The Gators offense will be in transition with transfer Grant Mertz under center, and while they should be able to keep things close like last season, the Utes defense is stingy and should help them prevail this time around at home by more than four points.
The pick: Utah -4
Virginia vs. No. 12 Tennessee*
Line: Virginia (+28, +1800) vs. Tennessee (-7000), 56 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 2 at 11 a.m. (ABC)
Analysis: Picking this contest straight up is a no-brainer considering how strong Tennessee’s offense is, but the spread isn’t quite as wide as anticipated since Virginia has a solid defense.
However, the Cavaliers defense likely won’t have any answers for Josh Heupel’s offense, which is now led by dark horse Heisman candidate Joe Milton, who appears in line for a huge passing season after showing flashes while filling in for Hendon Hooker last season.
The Cavaliers offense is coming off a miserable season and lacks experience, so while the Volunteers defense can be vulnerable, we expect them to win by more than 28 points considering Heupel’s teams tend to run up the score in lopsided matchups.
The pick: Tennessee -28
*- Game will take place at neutral site (Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN)
South Carolina vs. No. 21 North Carolina*
Line: South Carolina (+2.5, +118) vs. North Carolina (+140), 64.5 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 2 at 6:30 p.m. (ABC)
Analysis: It’s tough trying to pick a winner between these two offensive juggernauts, as both North Carolina and South Carolina have elite offenses with the return of quarterbacks Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler.
The winner could be determined by who wins the turnover battle considering how evenly matched these teams are, so the safe play appears to be taking the over since Maye and Rattler duking it out gives this contest the feel of a shootout.
64.5 points is a lot, but both teams’ defenses are weak enough to where the offenses should thrive from start to finish as they look to keep up with each other.
The pick: OVER 64.5 points
*- Game will take place at neutral site (Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC)
Other plays
South Alabama at No. 24 Tulane
Line: South Alabama (+6.5, +205) at Tulane (-250), 52 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 2 at 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
Analysis: Tulane enters 2023 riding a wave of momentum from their storybook 2022 season, but their opening matchup won’t be a cakewalk against a respectable opponent.
South Alabama was one of the top teams in the Sun Belt and has lots of returning talent, and while the Green Wave are still the better team on paper, this contest will likely end up a close one.
While the Green Wave should still prevail straight up, taking the points with the Jaguars appears to be the sharp play.
The pick: South Alabama +6.5
No. 9 Clemson at Duke
Line: Clemson (-13, -480) at Duke (+360), 55.5 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Monday, Sept. 4 at 7 p.m. (ESPN)
Analysis: This matchup has the look of a shootout on paper considering that Clemson projects to have a an improved offense with sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik, but let’s not forget that their defense has also been an integral part of their success under Dabo Sweeney.
Duke’s offense took a huge step forward last season with Riley Leonard lighting it up at quarterback, but he could run into trouble against a Clemson defense that limited Drake Maye and the powerful North Carolina passing game to 10 points in the ACC Championship Game.
While Klubnik and Leonard should have their share of highlights, taking the under appears to be the play since 55.5 will be tough to reach due to Clemson's experienced defense.
The pick: UNDER 55.5 points
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