College football predictions: Picks, tips for Week 6

Week 6 of the college football season is here, and there are several key matchups on the horizon with the Red River Rivalry leading the way.

The classic matchup between Texas and Oklahoma is usually a close one, and both teams enter this year undefeated to where the oddsmakers are expecting the score to go back to being tight after last season’s blowout.

There are also several interesting SEC games on tap with LSU traveling to take on undefeated Missouri and Alabama facing Texas A&M in a key SEC West battle.

Below are my six best bets for this week’s biggest college football matchups.

(Lines from Caesars Sportsbook, official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, as of Friday, Oct. 6)

Game of the Week

No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 3 Texas

Line: Oklahoma (+5, +180) at Texas (-220), 60.5 O/U

Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 7 at 11 a.m. (ABC)

Analysis: The Red River Rivalry had seen the past eight matchups decided by eight points or less prior to last season’s 49-0 Texas victory, and the oddsmakers see that as an outlier as evidenced by this year’s close spread.

The Longhorns have been rolling with Quinn Ewers at quarterback, as Steve Sarkisian’s offense has been among the most efficient in the nation, but Oklahoma has gotten back on track offensively and has a strong defense under defensive-minded head coach Brent Venables.

Oklahoma should be able to prevent Ewers and the Longhorns from running away with this one, and while the line moving from six to 5.5 makes it riskier to back the Sooners, we’re not going to let that scare us away from taking the points.

The pick: Oklahoma +5

SEC best bets

No. 23 LSU at No. 21 Missouri

Line: LSU (-4, -205) at Missouri (+170), 65 O/U

Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 7 at 11 a.m. (ESPN)

Analysis: LSU’s defense has struggled mightily so far this season, but they should be able to get back on track this week against a traditionally weak SEC opponent in Missouri.

Missouri’s offense hasn’t been anything to sneeze at though, as their passing attack has looked strong to start the season, but their scheduled has been light having only faced one SEC team in Vanderbilt as opposed to LSU having already faced three SEC West foes.

The line has been moving toward Missouri, but I see this as an opportunity to get LSU at a value since they’ll be motivated to bounce back and still appear to be the more talented team overall despite having a worse record.

The pick: LSU -4

No. 11 Alabama at Texas A&M

Line: Alabama (-1, -120) at Texas A&M (+100), 46 O/U

Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 7 at 2:30 p.m. (CBS)

Analysis: The Nick Saban-Jimbo Fisher rivalry commences in College Station this year, making it tempting to back the Aggies, but this one feels very tough to pick against the spread.

Both the Aggies and Crimson Tide have been disappointing offensively but have delivered defensively, so while this matchup has traditionally been a high-scoring affair, this year’s could end up more of a defensive struggle with neither team having a sound quarterback situation.

With the spread seemingly feeling like a coin flip, I’ll go ahead and take the under with the defenses having been the biggest reason why these teams are 4-1 to start since neither offense is in rhythm.

The pick: UNDER 46.5 points

No. 20 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia

Line: Kentucky (+14.5, +430) at Georgia (-600), 47.5 O/U

Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 7 at 6 p.m. (ESPN)

Analysis: This matchup is one that has the feel of a potential backdoor cover with undefeated Kentucky getting 14.5 points, but Georgia is still a powerful force even though they haven’t been blowing teams out.

While the Bulldogs have yet to cover a spread this season, they’ve still got elite talent on both sides of the ball to where they should be able to score plenty of points and slow down a Wildcats offense that won’t be able to run wild like they did last week against Florida.

The Wildcats will likely have their backs against the wall having to play catchup, so I see the Bulldogs being able to win convincingly at home with the Wildcats offense not having been tested much so far.

The pick: Georgia -14.5

Other plays

Maryland at No. 2 Ohio State

Line: Maryland (+20, +800) at Ohio State (-1400), 57 O/U

Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 7 at 11 a.m. (FOX)

Analysis: Ohio State’s offense is still among the nation’s elite even though they haven’t scored quite as much to start as they usually do, but they should score plenty this week at home.

The Buckeyes will be taking on a fellow undefeated Big Ten foe in Maryland that’s off to a strong start offensively with Taulia Tagovailoa leading the way, but they face an uphill battle trying to keep up with the Buckeyes considering it’ll be a much tougher challenge than any other that they’ve faced.

The Terps kept last season’s contest close for most of the way, but the Buckeyes have dominated this matchup at home the last three meetings and should be able to once again with their elite cast of skill players led by Marvin Harrison Jr.

The pick: Ohio State -20

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 25 Louisville

Line: Notre Dame (-6.5, -250) at Louisville (+205), 54 O/U

Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 7 at 6:30 p.m. (ABC)

Analysis: Last week Notre Dame barely got past Duke on the road, and they face another tough road challenge this week against undefeated Louisville.

The Fighting Irish had been rolling on offense with transfer quarterback Sam Hartman, but they’ve hit a bit of a road block the past two weeks having faced stout defenses, and the Cardinals have been sound defensively so far.

While the Cardinals defense faces their toughest test yet, they should be able to prevent enough points for the under to hit considering that the Fighting Irish shouldn’t have much trouble defensively.