College football spread picks: Predictions and best bets for Week 1 in 2023

College football isn’t just one of the best sports to watch on a Saturday afternoon, it’s also one of the best to find ways to make plenty of cash as a sharp sports bettor. Each week we’ll find the best value for NCAA football games against the spread, total, and on the moneyline so you can make plenty of cash. No touts, no fees, and just the best numbers we can find.

Here are our best picks on the board to get all the dollars in Week 1 of FBS football. All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Collin Sherwin: 2023 Record 0-0

Utah -4.5 vs. Florida

With Cam Rising being reported as out, this line fell flatter than that recent sham of a documentary about the Gators. While it was in the 7.5 range most of the offseason, going to 4.5 here is just too low when the Utes bring a capable backup in Bryson Barnes (who won the backup in camp over a transfer brought into replace him). There’s also nine returning starters on defense for Kyle Whittingham, and remember Utah 100% should have won this game last season in The Swamp but for an INT by Rising with seconds remaining inside the +5 yard line.

The MUSS will basically be nuclear, and Florida’s now starting Graham Mertz at QB, who I think we learned at Wisconsin isn’t exactly a world-beater. So they’re going to be better with him than the No. 4 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft?? This feels like a layup. And just let Billy Napier do his job, Gator fans: If you do, you’re going to be able to hang with Georgia in 2024. But not tonight.

Nebraska-Minnesota Under 43.5

Since I’ve learned they’re only playing four quarters tonight, I feel pretty good about this number. Matt Rhule brings a run-first system with new QB Jeff Sims from Georgia Tech, and that’s what PJ Fleck did anyway during the 23 seasons he had Dr. Tanner Morgan, MBA, PhD under center. Now he’s got Athan Kaliakmanis at quarterback, and a defense that returns plenty up front (the secondary might be the vulnerability, but Sims will struggle to exploit that in Week 1).

This game will have more punts than needed legislation on Capitol Hill, and the new clock rules should help shave even more time off this one.

Hawai’i +3.5 vs. Stanford

New Cardinal coach Troy Taylor is in for a rebuild Chip and Joanna Gaines would immediately turn down. Stanford returns only SIX (6!!) starters from last year’s 3-9 team that got David Shaw and his cro-magnon clock and game management ousted from The Farm. It’s always darkest before the dawn in the Pac-4 however, and Taylor simply needs some time. And as we’ve learned across all sports in Palo Alto, they are certainly patient to their benefit.

Meanwhile after last week’s feisty performance in Nashville, America’s Team The Hawai’i Warriors are ahead on their rebuild under Bows legend Timmy Chang. Brayden Shrager was 27-35 for 351 yards against an SEC defense (yes, Vanderbilt is in the SEC), and they gave away a 1st and goal at the 1. With the Cancer of Todd Graham getting more excised every day, there is momentum on the islands for a team not only on the field but in the state legislature. Aloha Stadium is on track to re-open in 2028, and everyone is finally getting aligned off the field.

Your sports betting account likely has an out late on Saturday nights all season, because the Bows are back. But it’s always better to bet against teams in college football than on them. Stanford could easily be one of the 10 worst teams in America this season.

Chinmay Vaidya: 2023 Record 0-0

Florida State +3.5 vs. LSU (-156)

The Seminoles won this game last year thanks to a late missed field goal, and it’s interesting they come in as underdogs in what is effectively going to be a home game for them. The Tigers carry the higher ranking but Florida State is still a top 10 team. Both squads are largely the same from last year and this should be the best game of Week 1. I’ll give up a few bucks on the line to account for a potential late field goal loss for FSU.

North Carolina ML vs. South Carolina (-130)

I do think the line (-2.5) offers good value too, since the Tar Heels are the better team. South Carolina does have some talent though, and Spencer Rattler is out to prove he’s still a top quarterback. This should be another great game in Week 1, but I’ll take Drake Maye and North Carolina to win outright.

Houston ML vs. UTSA (+105)

The Roadrunners are coming off back-to-back seasons with double-digit wins, so it’s understandable for them to be favored slightly even after the Cougars won a wild overtime contest a year ago between these sides. Houston as a home underdog is too tempting to pass on. There will new players thrust into bigger roles in front of their home fans, and Dana Holgorsen has been providing good quotes ahead of Week 1. I’ll take the Cougars here.

Teddy Ricketson: 2023 Record 0-0

Minnesota (-7) vs. Minnesota

Matt Rhule is a solid college coach because he is a good recruiter. He gets his players to buy in, and he has shown that he can turn around programs like he did at Temple and Baylor. Between both schools, he won a combined three games in his first year with the program. Add in the Cornhuskers likely starting Georgia Tech transfer Jeff Sims, and I’m taking the Golden Gophers to cover in Week 1.

Hawai’i (+3.5) vs. Stanford

I’m following in the footsteps of some of my coworkers here, but I think the Rainbow Warriors are going to hang around in this game. Hawai’i played in Week 0 against Vanderbilt, and the game ended up coming down to the wire. They had a chance at the win if they hadn’t allowed a 97-yard kickoff return touchdown and thrown a pick in the end zone after starting first and goal on the 1-yard line. They cover in Week 1.

Texas Tech (-14) vs. Wyoming

The Red Raiders are expected to commit to Tyler Shough as their starting quarterback. The fifth-year player has shown positive progression during his two-year tenure at Texas Tech. He will be able to rely on Jerand Bradley, who comes in off a season with 744 yards and six touchdowns. Wyoming’s Andrew Peasley struggled in his first season with the Cowboys, and despite the Big 12 not being known for its defense, I think Texas Tech covers the two-touchdown spread.

Chris Landers: 2023 Record 0-0

Louisiana Tech vs. SMU, over 66.5

We had plenty of concerns about Louisiana Tech’s defense heading into the season, and those concerns were ... not allayed in the slightest in their narrow 22-17 win over Florida International in Week 0. Despite FIU being almost literally unable to complete a forward pass — QB Grayson James went 5-of-14 for four total yards— the Panthers still ran it for 178 yards and nearly six yards a carry, which does not bode well as the competition ratchets up considerably on Saturday.

With star recruit Preston Stone finally taking over at QB and a skill group that would make plenty of Power 5 teams jealous, Rhett Lashlee and SMU might have the best offense in the entire G5 this season, and they’ll be able to pretty much name their number against a Bulldogs D that entered this season ranked a dismal 133rd in defensive SP+. Of course, the Mustangs haven’t ranked higher than 93rd in defensive SP+ since 2012, so they’re liable to give up points themselves — and Tech’s passing game (Boise State transfer Hank Bachmeier at QB, dynamic WRs Smoke Harris and Cyrus Allen) should add enough to hit the over here comfortably.

Hawaii ML vs. Stanford (+142)

Long live the Run N’ Shoot. Timmy Chang and Co. went through a miserable year zero situation in 2022, but they acquitted themselves well in Week 0, pushing Vanderbilt right down to the wire in a 35-28 loss in Nashville. The Bows offense looked an awful lot like it did back when Chang was at the helm, with new QB Brayden Shrager going 27-35 for 351 yards and three TDs while Hawaii out-gained the Commodores by nearly 100 total yards and 1.2 yards per play. Now they’ll head back to the islands for a matchup with a Stanford team that’s about to embark on its own year zero:

Former Sac State coach Troy Taylor takes over a roster that had bottomed out under David Shaw and then got further decimated by transfers this offseason (like, for instance, losing a whopping six offensive linemen). We don’t even know which of three uninspiring options will start at QB for the Cardinal, and with so many moving parts, it might take them a while to figure things out. Hawaii, on the other hand, has an identity and a path forward — as well as a game of experience already under their belts — and with this much juice on the moneyline, I like taking a shot on them to pull the home upset.

Louisville -7.5 vs. Georgia Tech

In one corner, we have a Louisville team that won eight games last year, made one of the best hires of the coaching cycle in landing Purdue’s Jeff Brohm, brought a ton of talent back and then added a bunch more through the transfer portal. In the other, we have a Tech squad that needed a fluky late-season run just to make it to 5-7 and will now be led by a first-time head coach and two coordinators who haven’t led an offense or defense in five years.

The last time we saw new Tech starting QB Haynes King, he was completing 55% of his passes with nearly as many INTs as TDs for Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M; now we trust him to run a version of the Air Raid against a secondary that brought in UNC star corner Storm Duck to play alongside incumbent all-conference candidate Jarvis Brownlee Jr.? Brohm has everything he needs to hit the ground running at his alma mater, and it starts in Week 1.

Grace McDermott: 2023 Record 0-0

Boise State +14.5 vs. Washington

This Boise State-Washington matchup is an interesting one. The Broncos return two star running backs in George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, and the Huskies’ defense still needs some work after last season. The Broncos bring one of the top defenses in the Mountain West, but they are still facing a Power 5 opponent. While it may not be enough to win, it should be enough to cover.

North Carolina -2.5 vs. South Carolina

This UNC-USC Carolina showdown is a game I’m really looking forward to after the 2021 Duke’s Mayo Bowl pitted the neighbors against each other. The Gamecocks won back then, but I’ve got the Tar Heels for this one. Drake Maye is at the helm ready to show the world what he’s made of and bring the Heels to the next level, and while I think it will be a tight shootout, I’m taking the northerners here.

Clemson -13 vs. Duke

If anything, having a line under two touchdowns over Duke is giving the Tigers some locker room material to get pumped up ahead of Monday’s game. Clemson has had an offseason to prepare Cade Klubnik, who is no longer competing against DJ Uiagalalei for the starting job, and they added former TCU offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to their staff. Duke might be good this season, but I don’t think they’re this kind of good.

Nick Simon: 2023 Record 0-0

Florida State +2.5 vs. LSU

It’s hard to make heads or tails of this Sunday night showdown between these two titans, so I’ll defer to the Seminoles to cover and outright win in Orlando. FSU has so much production returning on both sides of the ball, including a Heisman Trophy candidate in Jordan Travis at quarterback and a future top 10 pick in Jared Verse at defensive end. This should be a fun one and I am interested to see how the FSU offense schemes around LSU linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. on the inside.

TCU -20.5 vs. Colorado

Deion Sanders’ debut at Colorado has been hyped all offseason long and Fox has gone into overdrive hyping it up over the last few weeks. While “Coach Prime” has ginned up tons of excitement and interest in the Buffoloes’ program, the reality is that he overhauled virtually the entire roster and it’s going to take time for these new players to gel. They will be going up against a TCU program that is fresh of a national title game appearance that still has talent returning even after losing so many key pieces from last year’s team. Remember, starting quarterback Chandler Morris was the starter at the beginning of last season before suffering an MCL sprain in last year’s opener against Colorado. I think the Horned Frogs make a statement of their own and roll against Coach Prime here.

South Alabama +6.5 vs. Tulane

The Mardi Gras Browl could quietly be one of the best games of the weekend and Yulman Stadium will be jumping for this game. South Alabama returns nearly everyone on defense from last year’s 10-win team and that will help them against a Tulane offense where Tyjae Spears ain’t walking through that door. La’Damian Webb broke off 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns last season and could be one of the best running backs in the entire Group of Five this year. The Jags might not outright win, but they should give the Green Wave hell here.