College football odds, picks for Week 1: Hawaii vs. Stanford

What an exciting Week 0 in college football.

Let’s jump ahead of the betting markets and place some Week 1 college football wagers early this week.

Hawaii (+4.5) vs. Stanford

I’m very low on Stanford, which is working on a complete rebuild.

New head coach Troy Taylor could build a solid program. He was great at FSC Sacramento State and was a good offensive coordinator at Utah.

But the rebuild will take time, especially because only six starters are back for the Tree, and they rank second-to-last nationally in Phil Steele’s Experience metric.

This young, inexperienced team with little chemistry is trying to install new schemes on both sides of the ball.

In Week 1, this young, inexperienced team with no chemistry installing new schemes is a touchdown road favorite on The Island.

Playing Hawaii on the road is a tough task for any team, and it’s much tougher for a team that barely knows what it’s doing. The Rainbow Warriors are not a great squad, but they have more continuity than Stanford. Timmy Chang is back for his second season as head coach, and he returns both coordinators and starting quarterback Brayden Schager.

The Bows could have a good defense, considering nine starters return. Plus, their special teams unit projects as better than before.

For what it’s worth, Hawaii looked much improved in Week 0, out-gaining Vanderbilt in total yards (391 to 302) and first downs (19 to 17). Chang’s improvements are showing.

Ultimately, this is a garbage game between two garbage teams. Still, I don’t think Stanford deserves to be a touchdown favorite over any FBS team, especially considering Hawaii’s strong home-field advantage.

The Action Network’s Analytics Team projects Stanford as a one-point favorite, and I feel confident this game stays within one score.

North Texas (+7) vs. California

Is there that much to like about Cal?

The Golden Bears have a decent amount of returning experience on both sides of the football, but this team was 104th in Offensive Success Rate and 130th in Defensive Success Rate last season.

Meanwhile, I think the North Texas offense could be sneaky electric. The Mean Green reached the Conference-USA title game last season, but they still fired head coach Seth Littrell.

Ultimately, Littrell could never take this roster to the next level.

I think new head coach Eric Morris is primed to elevate this roster. Morris built FCS offensive powerhouses at Incarnate Word. He twice reached the FCS playoffs behind record-setting FCS offenses.

Morris spent last year as Wazzu’s offensive coordinator, and now he’s ready to turn up the heat at the FBS level. He plucked former UL Monroe quarterback Chandler Rogers to run his air raid scheme, and I think Rogers is the perfect fit.

Meanwhile, the Mean Green have an experienced receiver unit, an uber-deep running back room and a highly experienced offensive line (157 career FBS starts, including nine guys with starting experience).

Morris has all the tools to implement his high-powered scheme in Denton, and I don’t expect Cal’s relatively weak defense to stand in his way.

The Action Networks Analytics Team projects North Texas as a two-point home favorite over Cal. I agree with the numbers, given how I project North Texas’ offense and Cal’s defense.