College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 1: Can Fresno State Spoil Walters’ Debut?
Two of the seven Week 0college football matchups ended in upsets. Are there more in store this week?Read on for our Week 1 upset picks based on the best NCAAF odds.
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks pulled the first upset of thecollege football season, beating UTEP as slight -105 moneyline underdogs intheir first game at the FBS level. However, the biggest upset of the daybelonged to the UMass Minutemen, as they knocked off New Mexico State on theroad, cashing tickets with moneyline odds as high as +230.
Hereare our best college football upset picks for Week 1 (odds via our best college footballbetting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football upset picks: Week 1
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
College football upsetpredictions
Hawaii ML vs. Stanford (+146 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors did not look likea team deserving of such massive odds (+12000) to win the Mountain West afterlosing by a touchdown at Vanderbilt. The Hawai'i run defense looked stout,holding the Commodores to just 42 yards rushing on 26 attempts. Now the RainbowWarriors are licking their chops to face a Stanford team whose cupboard looksbare under first-year head coach Troy Taylor.
The Cardinal are one of the most inexperiencedteams at quarterback (their leading returning passer had just nine attempts for65 yards), and no running back from last year on the current roster rushed forat least four yards per carry.
We saw what the Rainbow Warriors could do todisrupt an offense with a shoddy offensive line last week, and Stanford bringsback just two offensive linemen who have ever started a game. And on defense,Stanford lost six of its top seven tacklers, which is concerning facing aHawai'i offense that amassed 391 total yards of offense against an SEC defenselast week.
While most Power 5 teams got stronger throughthe transfer portal, many key contributors left the Stanford program afterformer head coach David Shaw resigned. This is the only game the Cardinalproject to be favored in all season, but we project them to be in for a longseason after starting 0-1.
Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets
Hawai’i is as short as a +140 underdog atCaesars, so we are getting the best value at FanDuel. Our Phil Wood likes Hawaii's team total with his Stanford vs. Hawaii prediction.
Fresno State ML vs. Purdue (+160 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In this matchup, we areexcited to back a Fresno State Bulldogs team that is coming off a Mountain Westchampionship (four in the previous 10 years) as the underdog against a PurdueBoilermakers team that should struggle while undergoing a rebuild in the BigTen.
Fresno State showed itsresiliency last year, overcoming a quarterback (Jake Haener) who was not 100%healthy through a 1-4 start to finish with nine consecutive wins and an averagemargin of victory of 20.4 points per game in that span. The Bulldogs lostHaener, but head coach Jeff Tedford knows how to deal with turnover early inhis coaching tenures, as his last two teams in his second year with the programwon a combined 17 games. He can build around arguably the best offensive anddefensive lines in the conference and lean on a stout defense thatfinished last season ranked 36th in SP+. Fresno State's lofty defensive rankingis a product of returning eight players who played 400 or more snaps last year.
The experienced Bulldogsdefense should frustrate a Purdue offense that is learning a brand new Air Raidsystem under first-year offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. In addition, theBoilermakers return just 50% of their overall production from last year.
Withan entire offseason to prepare, a head coaching disparity can make a bigdifference in a game's outcome. Tedford has a massive advantage in that regard,taking teams to 11 bowl games in his 16 seasons (and finishing in the AP top 10once), compared to Purdue's Ryan Walters, coaching in his first collegiategame.
FanDuel is the onlysportsbook at which one can back the Bulldogs at higher than +155 odds.
Legal sports betting is coming soon to Kentucky – but you can pre-register now! Check out the best sites for Kentucky sports betting and the best Kentucky sportsbook promos! 21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Louisiana Monroe ML vs. Army (+340 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
This is our biggestupset pick of the week and the only one with which we are backing a double-digitunderdog.
One should not comparethis game too much to Notre Dame's 42-3 beatdown of Navy in Dublin, other thanto glean how much of an advantage it is to face a triple-option team with awhole offseason to prepare, as opposed to playing such an opponent mid-season.
An Army team thatfinished .500 last season (two of its six wins were against FCS teams) lostfour of its first five games, and while it is 3-2 in its last five seasonopeners, it has been held to 14 or fewer points twice.
The Black Knights'challenge to score points is even greater now that cut blocks on the perimeter will be officiated differently. And Army has fiveinexperienced quarterbacks on the roster, which is significant considering thequarterback has been the team's leading rusher every year since 2016.
UL Monroe projects tohave the Sun Belt West's worst defense (126th in the country per SP+) butallowed fewer than 5.7 yards per play five times (and went 4-1), so its offenseis capable enough to pull an outright upset if the Warhawks wisely spent the offseasonscheming ways to slow down the triple option.
Considering UL Monroe has gone 4-8 inboth seasons under head coach Terry Bowden, taking the 10 points might be thesafer play, but we are looking for a bigger return with this outright upsetpick.
ULM is as low as +300 atCaesars and bet365, making the +340 odds at FanDuel a steal.
College football upset picks made08/30/2023 at 7:39 a.m. ET.
College football betting odds pages
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
