College football: Take a shot on Texas Tech for a future bet

On the surface, futures betting is fairly straightforward.

In the case of college football, you pick a team to win a division, a conference or the national championship.

And then you wait.

It’s the waiting that changes the value proposition.

The capital you’ve tied up in those futures just sits on the sidelines for months. It’s why it’s difficult to justify betting favorites.

The ACC, Big Ten and SEC have become so chalky in football in recent years that it’s essentially not worth a bettor’s time to play futures there.

In the past five years, nine of the 15 champions from those three conferences were picked to win by the media in the preseason.

The media’s preseason opinions in those conferences mirrored that of oddsmakers.

In 2020, for instance, Clemson (-550), Ohio State (-400) and Alabama (-135) were all picked to win their conference by the media and were prohibitively priced.

Had you parlayed all three together you still would have only made +160 on your money.

That trend continues this summer, with Georgia sitting at even money to win the SEC, Ohio State at +155 in the Big Ten and Clemson at +150 in the ACC. So where can a bettor turn to extract value?

Welcome to the brand new, wide open Big 12.

Even before the Big 12 welcomed BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida to its ranks, it was already producing longshot champions.

In 2021, Baylor came from out of nowhere, cashing 50/1 tickets to win the conference.

Last season, the Big 12 title game welcomed two more upstarts. Kansas State (+1700) and TCU (+1400) played an overtime thriller at Jerry World, with the Wildcats cashing futures for lucky bettors.

The Big 12’s odds also reflect the public’s interest in two teams: Texas and Oklahoma.

They both drive up the odds on the remaining teams in the conference, who are overlooked by casual bettors.

The same is true this year, as Texas (+125) and Oklahoma (+340) have opened as the top two teams in the Big 12 futures market despite uneven performances in 2022.

While it would be tempting to go for a long-shot such as BYU (100/1) or Houston (120/1), I’ve circled Texas Tech (+1100) as my Big 12 sleeper.

Betting on College Football?

The Red Raiders were feisty in Joey McGuire’s first year in Lubbock.

They won two more Big 12 contests than they did the previous year. Crucially, they knocked off both Texas and Oklahoma in the same season for the first time ever.

When healthy, their offense carried them, and they scored 37 or more points on six occasions. Zach Kittley, Tech’s offensive coordinator, is a bona fide star in the making, and returning for him are Tyler Shough at quarterback, 81.5 percent of the starts along the offensive line (19th) and 75 percent of the returning production (31st).

As a whole, when factoring in transfers with starting experience, the Red Raiders are the second most experienced team in the conference.

Schedule-wise, they avoid Oklahoma and get K-State and TCU at home before a season finale on The Forty Acres against Texas.

The timing of that Lone Star State showdown presents a perfect hedge opportunity should Tech enter at 6-2 or 7-1 in conference play.

The defense needs to improve, but it was ultra-stingy last year in the red zone and generated 31 sacks, leading the conference in both categories.

Tim DeRuyter has a proven track record, molding quality defenses at Air Force, Texas A&M and California before landing in Lubbock.

Given their price (+1100), schedule, offensive ceiling and home-field advantage (particularly night games), this is the time to buy on the Red Raiders.